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Rating Action:

Moody's changes Permanent tsb's standalone BCA status to review, direction uncertain

26 Mar 2015

Deposit and senior unsecured ratings remain on review for downgrade

London, 26 March 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service has today changed the review status on Permanent tsb's (PTSB) caa3 baseline credit assessment (BCA) to review with direction uncertain, from review for downgrade.

The change in the watch status of PTSB's BCA reflects (1) the approval in principle by the European Commission of the bank's restructuring plan; (2) the endorsement provided by the ECB's Single Supervisory Mechanism of the bank's recapitalisation plan; and (3) the more positive financial results disclosed by the bank.

Moody's has also changed the watch status of PTSB's subordinated programme to review with direction uncertain from review for downgrade, in line with the changes on the BCA. The bank's junior subordinated debt rating of (P)C has been placed on review for upgrade since it is already at the lowest level of Moody's ratings scale and could only be upgraded or affirmed at its current level.

However, Moody's has extended the review for downgrade on the bank's deposit ratings of B3 and senior debt ratings of Caa1 because these ratings are not only driven by the BCA outcome, but also by the advanced loss given failure (LGF) analysis recently introduced as part of the rating agency's new banks methodology.

PTSB ratings had been on review for downgrade since 30 October 2014, following the EUR855 million capital shortfall identified during the ECB's Comprehensive Assessment. From 17 March 2015, the extended review further incorporated the introduction of our new methodology, and specifically our advanced LGF analysis.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The change in the watch status of PTSB's BCA reflects (1) the EC's approval (in principle) of the bank's restructuring plan, which was a legal requirement to prevent any competitive advantages resulting from the bailout of PTSB in 2011 by the Irish Government (Baa1 stable); (2) the endorsement provided by the ECB's Single Supervisory Mechanism of the bank's recapitalisation plan to cover the EUR855 million capital shortfall identified last year during the ECB's comprehensive assessment, under the adverse stress scenario; and (3) the more positive financial results that the bank has disclosed, which in Moody's view could facilitate the planned EUR525 million Tier 1 capital raising from private investors.

Moody's positively notes that the approved restructuring plan also includes actions to ensure PTSB's long-term sustainability as a going-concern entity. Under the plan, PTSB will dispose of its UK residential mortgages and Irish non-performing commercial real-estate portfolios; the sale could materially reduce the bank's tail risk.

However, Moody's believes that the capital raising remains exposed to execution risk. As a result, upward movement on PTSB's BCA would be directly linked to a successful capital raise. In contrast, failure to complete the recapitalisation exercise could lead to downward pressure.

Moody's also extended the review for PTSB's bank deposit and senior debt ratings. Although Moody's initial advanced LGF analysis is not conclusive, the rating agency will consider the likely impact on LGF, owing to the relatively low loss absorption that the bank's subordinated debt provides, as well as the volume of deposits/senior debt. This review also incorporates Moody's reviewed government (systemic) support assumptions.

WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN

Near-term upward pressure on the bank's BCA depends on whether the bank can successfully implement its recapitalisation plan and overcome the associated execution risks.

Other factors that could exert upward pressure on the PTSB's BCA in the medium term are (1) a sustainable recovery of asset-quality indicators; and (2) an improved liquidity position, with a lower reliance on funding from monetary authorities.

The bank's BCA could be adversely affected by (1) a greater-than-expected deterioration in the bank's existing capital buffers; (2) any inability to raise the required capital to cover the shortfall resulting from the ECB stress test exercise; (3) an unexpected deterioration in the bank's profitability metrics; and (4) material deterioration in its liquidity or funding position. A downward movement in PTSB's BCA would likely result in downgrades to all its ratings.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks published in March 2015. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

On Review for Upgrade:

..Issuer: Permanent tsb p.l.c.

....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program (Domestic Currency), Placed on Review for Possible Upgrade, currently (P)C

On Review Direction Uncertain:

..Issuer: Permanent tsb p.l.c.

.... Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, Placed on Review Direction Uncertain, currently caa3

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Placed on Review Direction Uncertain, currently caa3

....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program (Domestic Currency), Placed on Review Direction Uncertain, currently (P)Ca

Affirmations:

..Issuer: Permanent tsb p.l.c.

.... Short Term Deposit Rating (Foreign Currency), Affirmed NP

.... Short Term Deposit Rating (Local Currency), Affirmed NP

....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program (Domestic Currency), Affirmed (P)NP

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Carlos Suarez Duarte
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Johannes Felix Wassenberg
MD - Banking
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's changes Permanent tsb's standalone BCA status to review, direction uncertain
No Related Data.
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