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Rating Action:

Moody's changes outlook on Banco Angolano de Investimentos' Ba3 deposit ratings to negative from stable

04 Mar 2015

Actions follow change in outlook on Angola's Ba2 sovereign rating to negative

Limassol, March 04, 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service has today changed the outlook to negative from stable on the Ba3 deposit ratings of Banco Angolano de Investimentos, S.A. Concurrently, Moody's affirmed the bank's Ba3 deposit ratings and E+ standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR), which is equivalent to a b1 baseline credit assessment. The E+ BFSR maintains a stable outlook.

The rating action on Banco Angolano de Investimentos follows the change in the outlook to negative of Angola's Ba2 sovereign bond ratings (see "Moody's affirms Angola Ba2 ratings, changes outlook to negative", published on 3 March 2015). The negative outlook on the sovereign bond rating is driven by the downside risks stemming from the oil price decline to economic growth, government finances and the external payments position.

The negative outlook on Banco Angolano de Investimentos' deposit ratings reflects (1) Moody's view that the challenging domestic operating environment will weigh on the bank's financial fundamentals, mainly its asset quality and profitability metrics; and (2) the significant correlation between the bank's creditworthiness and the sovereign's own credit profile through the bank's holdings of government-related assets.

The affirmation of Banco Angolano de Investimentos' ratings captures Moody's view of the bank's resilient credit profile, with a strong deposit-funded corporate banking franchise, liquid balance sheet, and significant capital buffers to absorb loan-related losses.

RATINGS RATIONALE

-- NEGATIVE OUTLOOK

The negative outlook on Banco Angolano de Investimentos' deposit ratings reflects Moody's view that, in response to declining oil revenues, the Angolan government will likely aggressively cut-back on capital expenditures. We expect that such a policy would have negative repercussions on the non-oil economy, with the risk of leading to a build-up in government arrears to the corporate sector. These factors -- in addition to a potentially weaker currency and higher inflation -- would weigh on borrowers' loan repayment capacity, leading to higher levels of non-performing loans, and higher credit costs, which would, in turn, weigh on Banco Angolano de Investimentos' profitability.

In addition, Moody's notes that there are extensive links between sovereign credit risk and the bank's own credit profile. Banco Angolano de Investimentos has very high direct government exposures (including loans, securities and exposures to the central bank), which we estimate at over 50% of total assets or over 5x shareholders' equity. A potential weakening in the sovereign credit strength would thus have an impact on the bank's own credit quality.

--RATING AFFIRMATIONS

The affirmation of Banco Angolano de Investimentos' ratings captures its strong funding and liquidity profile. As the largest bank in Angola in terms of deposits (17% market share), Moody's notes that Banco Angolano de Investimentos is well placed to maintain its strong deposit-funded profile and liquidity profile. While Moody's observes an increased risk of potential volatility in the bank's short-term corporate deposits amid the recent reduction in oil prices, the rating agency notes that these risks are partly mitigated by the bank's healthy liquidity buffers, with liquid assets (cash, central bank and interbank balances, and short-term investments) accounting for over 30% of total assets.

In addition, with a shareholders' equity-to-total assets ratio of around 10%, and a fairly high loan-loss provisioning coverage, Banco Angolano de Investimentos is in a position to absorb additional losses stemming from its loan portfolio (accounting for around 26% of assets, excluding direct government loans, or just over 2x shareholders' equity), under the rating agency's scenario analysis.

WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS DOWN/UP

Negative pressure could be exerted on Banco Angolano de Investimentos' ratings if the Angolan sovereign's creditworthiness weakens further. Downward pressure could also develop on the ratings as a result of any evidence of increased credit risks embedded in the bank's loan and securities portfolios, as a consequence of the deteriorating operating conditions, that could, in turn, potentially materially affect the bank's asset quality, profitability and capital metrics.

Although upward pressure on Banco Angolano de Investimentos' ratings is currently limited, substantial improvements in the domestic operating environment and sovereign's credit risk profile could prompt Moody's to change the outlook on the bank's deposit ratings to stable.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Global Banks published in July 2014. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

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Christos Theofilou
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Cyprus Ltd.
Kanika Business Centre
319 28th October Avenue
PO Box 53205
Limassol CY 3301
Cyprus
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Sean Marion
Managing Director
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Cyprus Ltd.
Kanika Business Centre
319 28th October Avenue
PO Box 53205
Limassol CY 3301
Cyprus
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's changes outlook on Banco Angolano de Investimentos' Ba3 deposit ratings to negative from stable
No Related Data.
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