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Rating Action:

Moody's changes outlook on German sub-sovereigns to stable from negative; ratings affirmed

04 Mar 2014

Frankfurt am Main, March 04, 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service has today changed to stable from negative the outlooks on the ratings of the Land of Baden-Wuerttemberg (Aaa), the Free State of Bavaria (Aaa), the Land of Berlin (Aa1), the Land of Brandenburg (Aa1), the Land of Nordrhein-Westfalen (Aa1/(P)P-1) and the Land of Saxony-Anhalt (Aa1/P-1). At the same time, Moody's has today changed to stable from negative the outlook on the ratings of Erste Abwicklungsanstalt (EAA, Aa1/P-1), a government related issuer (GRI). The ratings on all of the affected sub-sovereign entities have been affirmed.

The outlook changes follow a similar action on Germany's Aaa government bond rating, announced on 28 February 2014. For full details please refer to the sovereign press release (https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-outlook-on-Germanys-Aaa-government-bond-rating-to--PR_292481) , published on www.moodys.com.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The stable outlook on the six Laender mirrors the corresponding change in outlook on Germany's Aaa government bond rating, given the extremely strong macroeconomic, institutional, financial and operational linkages between the sovereign and the Laender.

These linkages arise from (1) the very robust tax-sharing and equalisation system; (2) the highly predictable institutional framework, including the solidarity principle (Bundestreue), which is anchored in the German constitution; and (3) the budgetary coordination and the debt-brake mechanism, which is also enshrined in the constitution. In addition, the very high debt stocks and refinancing needs of the German Laender expose them to the same market conditions as the sovereign.

In the case of Erste Abwicklungsanstalt (EAA), a public law institution, the stable outlook reflects the stable outlook of its support provider, the Land of Nordrhein-Westfalen.

RATIONALE FOR AFFIRMING THE RATINGS

Land of Baden-Wuerttemberg (Aaa) and the Free State of Bavaria (Aaa) display strong economic fundamentals and in particular, the Free State of Bavaria continues to post very strong financial performances.

The Land of Berlin (Aa1), the Land of Brandenburg (Aa1), the Land of Nordrhein-Westfalen (Aa1) and the Land of Saxony-Anhalt (Aa1) have shown remarkable improvements in their respective financial performances, mainly due to tax revenue increases. However these Laender continue to record high or very high debt burdens.

The action on EAA's rating mirrors the rating action on the Land of Nordrhein-Westfalen. The EAA's ratings are directly linked to the creditworthiness of the Land because of the strength of the Land's guarantee mechanism.

WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS UP / DOWN

Upward pressure on the ratings of the four Aa1-rated Laender could be triggered by substantial reductions of their respective debt burdens, combined with sustainable improvements in their financial performances.

Downward pressure on the ratings of any of the German Laender could be triggered by a deterioration in the creditworthiness of the sovereign. Moreover, a substantial deterioration of the Laenders' individual credit profiles or a weakening of our assessment of systemic support would also trigger downward pressure on their individual ratings.

Upward pressure on the ratings of EAA would arise in the event of an upgrade in the rating of the Land of Nordrhein-Westfalen. Downward pressure would arise in the event of a downgrade in the rating of the Land of Nordrhein-Westfalen.

The sovereign action required the publication of this credit rating action on a date that deviates from the previously scheduled release date in the sovereign release calendar, published on www.moodys.com.

Specific economic indicators as required by EU regulation are not applicable for these entities.

On 26 February 2014, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of German sub-sovereign ratings. The main points raised during the discussion were: The systemic risk in which the issuers operate has materially decreased.

The principal methodology used in rating Germany RLGs was Regional and Local Governments published in January 2013. The principal methodology used in rating Germany GRIs was Government-Related Issuers: Methodology Update published in July 2010. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this rating action, if applicable.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

The ratings of rated entities Baden-Wuerttemberg, Land of and Bavaria, Free State of were initiated by Moody's and were not requested by these rated entities.

Rated entities Baden-Wuerttemberg, Land of and Bavaria, Free State of or their agent(s) participated in the rating process. These rated entities or their agent(s), if any, provided Moody's - access to the books, records and other relevant internal documents of the rated entities.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Harald Sperlein
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Sub-Sovereign Group
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

David M Rubinoff
MD - Sub-Sovereigns
Sub-Sovereign Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's changes outlook on German sub-sovereigns to stable from negative; ratings affirmed
No Related Data.
© 2021 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S CREDIT RATINGS AFFILIATES ARE THEIR CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND MATERIALS, PRODUCTS, SERVICES AND INFORMATION PUBLISHED BY MOODY’S (COLLECTIVELY, “PUBLICATIONS”) MAY INCLUDE SUCH CURRENT OPINIONS. MOODY’S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT. SEE APPLICABLE MOODY’S RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS, NON-CREDIT ASSESSMENTS (“ASSESSMENTS”), AND OTHER OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODY’S ANALYTICS, INC. AND/OR ITS AFFILIATES. MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS DO NOT COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY’S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS AND OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLISHES ITS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL, WITH DUE CARE, MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.

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MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any credit rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125,000 to approximately JPY550,000,000.

MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.

​

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