Singapore, June 30, 2016 -- Moody's Investors Service has revised the outlook on Singapore's
banking system to negative from stable.
"Our negative outlook on Singapore's banking system over the
next 12-18 months reflects the weaker operating conditions for
the banks, against the backdrop of softer domestic and regional
economic and trade growth," says Eugene Tarzimanov,
a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer.
"We also expect rising risks to the banks' asset quality and profitability,
from their high exposure to energy-related industries and the generally
high leverage of domestic firms," adds Tarzimanov.
Moody's conclusions were contained in its just-released report
on Singapore banks, titled, "Negative Outlook Due to
Worsening Operating Conditions, Asset Quality, Profitability".
The negative outlook is based on Moody's assessment of five drivers:
Operating Environment (deteriorating); Asset Quality and Capital
(deteriorating/stable); Funding and Liquidity (stable); Profitability
and Efficiency (deteriorating); and Government Support (stable).
With the Operating Environment, Moody's says that conditions
for the banks are worsening because of the slower economic and trade growth
in Singapore (Aaa stable) as well as more broadly in Asia. Specifically,
Moody's expects real GDP growth in Singapore to slow to 1.6%
in 2016 and to 1.5% in 2017, results which would be
lower than the 2% achieved in 2015 and the average of 4.5%
between 2011 and 2014.
Moody's says that Singapore's growth performance will be adversely
affected by the slowing domestic manufacturing sector, and weaker
economic activity in its key trade partners, including Greater China
and Malaysia (A3 stable).
On Asset Quality and Capital, Moody's says that because of
the slowing economic and trade growth in Asia, continued vulnerabilities
in the energy sector, and the generally high leverage of domestic
firms, the banks will see their asset quality worsen slightly,
with problem loans rising from a very low 1.1% of gross
loans at end-March 2016.
Moreover, the large banks are highly exposed to energy-related
industries and shipping. Despite some rebound in energy prices
so far in 2016, the quality of such exposures will deteriorate,
because many of these firms are still restructuring their finances.
Nevertheless, Singapore banks will maintain strong capital buffers.
These buffers will remain unaffected by higher credit costs, because
pre-provision income will be sufficient to cover rising loan-loss
provisions. Moody's expects that growth in risk-weighted
assets will be muted and in line with the banks' retained earnings,
leading to little pressure on their capital ratios.
As for Profitability, Moody's says that higher credit costs
and flat loan growth rates will lead to a fall in profitability.
The banks' net interest margins will stay generally stable at 1.5%,
with risks to the downside, because Moody's sees scope for
Singapore's monetary policy to turn more accommodative over the coming
months, due to deflationary pressures and the slowdown in growth.
Funding and liquidity will remain strengths for large Singapore banks.
The large banks will likely maintain stable loan-to-deposit
ratios of around 90% in 2016-2017. Their low reliance
on wholesale funding — of around 12% of assets at end-2015
— and Moody's expectation of slow credit growth, suggest
that the banks will not face significant funding pressures. Around
30% of the major banks' assets are liquid assets, and refinancing
risk is limited, given their low levels of market borrowings.
Government Support for large Singapore banks is very high. Because
of the banks' importance to the economy, and Singapore's very
high fiscal strength and low level of debt, Moody's believes
the Singapore government will be willing and able to provide timely support
to the banks in situations of need.
Singapore is currently amending its resolution regime for financial institutions.
The proposed amendments will not subject the banks' existing and
prospective senior creditors and all depositors to bail in; a situation
which is in line with Moody's expectation of strong support in this
system.
Moody's rates the three major banking groups in Singapore:
DBS Bank Ltd. (DBS, Aa1 negative, aa3), Oversea-Chinese
Banking Corp Ltd (OCBC, Aa1 negative, aa3) and United Overseas
Bank Limited (UOB, Aa1 negative, aa3).
Moody's also rates Standard Chartered Bank (Singapore) Limited (Aa3
negative, a2), and Bank of Singapore Limited (Aa1 negative,
a3).
Moody's negative outlook for Singapore's banking system is in line
with the negative outlooks on the five Moody's-rated banks
in Singapore.
Subscribers can access the full report at:
http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1032159
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This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For
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for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.
Eugene Tarzimanov
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
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Stephen Long
MD - Financial Institutions
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
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Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
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Moody's changes outlook on Singapore's banking system to negative