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Rating Action:

Moody's changes outlook to negative and affirms the ratings of Banca Nazionale Del Lavoro

09 Aug 2022

Rating action follows Italian government outlook change

Paris, August 09, 2022 -- Moody's Investors Service has today changed the outlook to negative from stable and affirmed Banca Nazionale Del Lavoro S.p.A.'s (BNL) Baa1 long-term deposit, P-2 short-term deposit and Baa2 long-term senior unsecured debt and issuer ratings. This action, follows the outlook change to negative from stable on the Italian government's Baa3 debt rating.

For further information on the sovereign rating action, please refer to Moody's press release dated 5 August 2022. ("Moody's changes the outlook on Italy to negative; affirms Baa3 ratings", https://www.moodys.com/research/--PR_463267).

All other ratings and assessments of BNL remain unaffected by today's rating action.

The full list of the affected ratings can be found at the end of this press release.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Today's rating action reflects the potential consequences for BNL of the shift to a negative outlook on the Italian government. These consequences could operate through one or more of the following channels:

1. The risk that business and consumer confidence could be eroded by policy uncertainty or energy supply challenges linked to Italy's high reliance on Russian natural gas. This would, in turn, lead to lower economic growth and raise asset quality risks while eroding profitability and hence capital generation. If it were to crystallize, this weakening in the operating environment would be reflected in a lower macro profile for Italy (currently Moderate +) and could lead to a lower Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) for BNL.

2. A lower government bond rating would also increase the riskiness of banks' own senior debt and deposit liabilities given Moody's view that the expected loss of bank instruments is unlikely to be significantly lower than that of the sovereign's own debt. Reflecting this, the rating agency typically constrains deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings to two notches above the sovereign bond rating. Therefore, in the event of a downgrade of the Italian government bond rating, BNL's long-term deposit ratings currently positioned at Baa1 would also likely be downgraded, and the outlook on these instruments is therefore aligned with the Italian government debt's outlook.

The Baa1 long-term deposit and Baa2 issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings of BNL are driven by (1) the bank's ba2 BCA and its Adjusted BCA of baa2, benefiting from a very high probability of support from BNL's parent, BNP Paribas (Aa3/Aa3 stable, baa1), and (2) very low and moderate loss given failure for deposits and senior debt respectively under Moody's Advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis, that result on one notch of uplift and no uplift respectively for the deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings. Moody's also expects a low probability of government support for BNL that results in no further rating uplift.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Moody's considers that there is limited upward pressure on BNL's deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings, as indicated by the negative outlook. However, a return to a stable outlook on the Italian government debt rating could lead Moody's to change the outlook on BNL's ratings back to stable.

Conversely, Moody's could downgrade BNL's ratings following a downgrade of Italy's sovereign ratings and/or a lower Macro-profile. BNL's BCA of ba2 could also be downgraded because of a material deterioration in its creditworthiness.

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS

Issuer: Banca Nazionale Del Lavoro S.p.A.

..Affirmations:

....Long-term Bank Deposits, affirmed Baa1, outlook changed to Negative from Stable

....Short-term Bank Deposits, affirmed P-2

....Long-term Issuer Rating, affirmed Baa2, outlook changed to Negative from Stable

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, affirmed Baa2, outlook changed to Negative from Stable

..Outlook Action:

....Outlook changed to Negative from Stable

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks Methodology published in July 2021 and available at https://ratings.moodys.com/api/rmc-documents/71997. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on https://ratings.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found on https://ratings.moodys.com/rating-definitions.

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the issuer/deal page for the respective issuer on https://ratings.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

These ratings are unsolicited.

a.With Rated Entity or Related Third Party Participation: YES

b.With Access to Internal Documents: YES

c.With Access to Management: YES

For additional information, please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website https://ratings.moodys.com.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://ratings.moodys.com/documents/PBC_1288235.

The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the UK and is endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Limited, One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5FA under the law applicable to credit rating agencies in the UK. Further information on the UK endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on https://ratings.moodys.com.

Please see https://ratings.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the issuer/deal page on https://ratings.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Fabio Ianno
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's France SAS
96 Boulevard Haussmann
Paris, 75008
France
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

Alain Laurin
Associate Managing Director
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's France SAS
96 Boulevard Haussmann
Paris, 75008
France
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

No Related Data.
© 2022 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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