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Rating Action:

Moody's changes outlook to negative on Voith's Baa2 rating

18 Dec 2013

Frankfurt am Main, December 18, 2013 -- Moody's Investor Service (Moody's) has today changed the outlook on Voith GmbH's (Voith) Baa2 bond rating to negative from stable. Concurrently, Moody's has affirmed this rating.

RATINGS RATIONALE

"Today's rating action reflects the increasing risk that, despite decisive actions, Voith will not be able to restore its financial metrics to levels commensurate with a Baa2 rating, such as Moody's adjusted EBITA margin of 7%-8% or retained cash flow to net debt moving to mid twenties, in next 12-18 months," says Martin Fujerik, Moody's lead analyst for Voith. The metrics achieved in the financial year ending September 2013 (FY12/13), with Moody's adjusted EBITA margin of 4.2% and retained cash flow (RCF)/net debt of 23%, is rather weak and no longer displays the characteristics of a Baa2 rating. However, Moody's notes that Voith's results are burdened by substantial restructuring and various one-off charges (more than EUR150 million on the group level), which are unlikely to reoccur next year in the same magnitude.

Voith has recently initiated its group-wide "Voith 150+" program which combines initiatives and measures already under way or planned for the future, in all group divisions and in the holding company. "Voith 150+" focuses on optimizing structures and processes and the existing portfolio of products and services and aims to achieve annual costs savings of EUR150 million and release of additional working capital of EUR100 million.

Parts of the "Voith 150+" program relate to the group's Paper division, which is suffering from the structural decline in demand for graphic grade paper. This decline is unlikely to reverse and thus requires Voith to reposition the portfolio towards more growing segments (such as tissue or packaging) and markets with greater growth potential (such as China), where the local competition is very intense. Order intake in Voith's Paper division again significantly declined in FY12/13 and we do not expect any material pick up in the short term. Moody's believes it is going to be challenging for Voith's other divisions to fully compensate for the inevitable revenue decline in the Paper division over next 12-18 months.

Despite Voith's Hydro division having good long-term growth potential, Moody's expects ongoing weakness in the hydro power market to continue with somewhat subdued demand levels over the next 12-18 months. Profitability in Voith's Turbo division was disappointing in FY12/13, but in the absence of one-off charges and with portfolio clean-ups, Moody's expects the division's profitability to reach historical levels, even if revenues somewhat decline. After two years of healthy growth, Moody's expects that Voith Industrial Services' revenues will stabilise, with improvement in profitability dependent to some extent on (1) the company's ability to turnaround its problematic Energy-Petro-Chemical business and (2) continuing healthy demand in automotive market. Overall, the rating agency expects that Voith's group revenues will fall by low single digits in percentage terms in FY13/14 with Moody's adjusted EBITA margins improving towards 6.5% and RCF/net debt in the low twenties in percentage terms, which would still position Voith somewhat weakly in the Baa2 category.

Voith's Baa2 rating remains supported by its (1) market and technology leadership in many of its relevant markets, such as hydro power plants and paper machines; (2) very diversified and well balanced portfolio, with the group serving many end markets, which typically follow different cycles in terms of length and timing (i.e., paper, transport, energy, oil & gas, raw materials), backed by healthy order backlog of almost 11 months of sales; (3) strategy to increase geographical diversification, thereby reducing the company's reliance on Europe; (4) healthy liquidity profile and conservative financial strategy; and (5) ability to generate free cash flow even if profitability is under pressure.

The Baa2 rating is constrained by (1) the cyclical nature of most of Voith's end-customer industries; (2) its still significant exposure to Europe, where almost 50% of the group's FY12/13 revenues were generated; (3) a risk of additional restructuring charges driven by need to reposition or restructure the product portfolio; (4) low profitability compared to similarly rated peers, which reflects, in particular, (i) Voith's large and very diversified portfolio with limited synergies, (ii) the high proportion of the group's employees that are located in high-cost countries (around 40% of the headcount is in Germany), and (iii) its presence in businesses with structurally low margins, such as facility management within Voith Industrial Services.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP/DOWN

Moody's would stabilise the rating outlook if Voith improved its Moody's-adjusted EBITA margin to 7%-8% (4.2% in FY12/13) and its RCF/net debt towards the mid-twenties in percentage terms (23% in FY12/13). A rating upgrade, which is currently unlikely, would require a notable improvement in Voith's credit metrics, with the group achieving an EBITA margin in the high single digits in percentage terms on a sustainable basis, RCF/net debt close to 30% and continued positive free cash flow.

Conversely, the rating could come under negative pressure Voith's EBITA margin remains below 6.5% or its RCF/net debt ratio deteriorates below 20% over a longer period. Likewise, recurring negative free cash flow or a weakening of Voith's solid liquidity profile could exert pressure on the rating.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGIES

The principal methodology used in this rating was the Global Heavy Manufacturing Rating Methodology published in November 2009. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Voith is a diversified mechanical engineering group organised into four divisions: Voith Paper, Voith Turbo, Voith Hydro (a 65/35 joint-venture with Siemens AG) and Voith Industrial Services. Voith employs some 43,000 people in more than 50 countries and generated EUR5.7 billion in FY12/13. The group is privately owned by descendants of the Voith family, but has been led by non-family senior managers for decades.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Martin Fujerik
Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Matthias Hellstern
Managing Director
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's changes outlook to negative on Voith's Baa2 rating
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