New York, February 05, 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service has changed the rating outlook to negative
from stable on nine state and local governments, including the State
of Missouri, and two state housing finance agency programs,
in conjunction with an updated analysis of which Aaa-rated issuers
have indirect linkages to the federal government. At the same time,
Moody's has changed the outlook to stable from negative on another
eleven issuers, mostly housing finance agency (HFA) pooled single
family loan programs, that the rating agency has determined no longer
have a significant linkage to the US government.
Moody's currently rates the US government Aaa with a negative outlook.
An indirect linkage to the federal government's rating means that
were the US rating to be placed under review or downgraded the ratings
on the linked entity would be placed under review or downgraded as well.
An entity's rating may be considered linked because of economic
sensitivity to federal spending reductions, dependence on federal
transfers, or exposure to a capital market disruption. Following
today's revisions, a total of 4 states, 40 local governments,
and 26 HFA programs are considered linked.
State and local government rating outlooks changed to negative based on
the determination that they are more indirectly linked to the US rating
are:
AMES (CITY OF) IA
CHARLESTON (COUNTY OF) SC
CHARLESTON COUNTY PARK & RECREATION DISTRICT, SC
EASTON (TOWN OF) CT
INDIANAPOLIS (CITY OF) IN
LINN (COUNTY OF) IA
MISSOURI (STATE OF)
OLMSTED (COUNTY OF) MN
ROCHESTER (CITY OF) MN
Additionally, Cedar Rapids, Iowa, which already has
a negative outlook for fundamental reasons, is now considered indirectly
linked to the US rating.
State and local rating outlooks changed to stable based on the determination
that they are not as significantly linked to the US rating are:
DENVER (CITY & COUNTY OF) CO
LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT (MONTGOMERY CO.) PA
HFA whole loan single family housing program rating outlooks revised to
negative based on the determination that they are indirectly linked to
the US rating are:
IDAHO H&FA - SINGLE FAMILY MORTGAGE SENIOR BONDS, SERIES
2000B
IDAHO H&FA - SINGLE FAMILY MORTGAGE SENIOR BONDS, SERIES
2000E
HFA single family whole loan and mortgage-backed security program
rating outlooks revised to stable based on the determination that they
are not as significantly linked to the US rating are:
IDAHO H&FA - SINGLE FAMILY MORTGAGE SENIOR BONDS, SERIES
1999F
IDAHO H&FA - SINGLE FAMILY MORTGAGE SENIOR BONDS, SERIES
1998D
UTAH HC - SINGLE FAMILY MORTGAGE SENIOR BONDS 1998G CLASS I (sf)
UTAH HC - SINGLE FAMILY MORTGAGE SENIOR BONDS (NIBP)
ALABAMA HOUSING FINANCE AUTHORITY: TAXABLE MORTGAGE REVENUE BOND
(COLLATERALIZED REVENUE BOND PROGRAM)
ALABAMA HOUSING FINANCE AUTHORITY: COLLATERALIZED SINGLE FAMILY
MORTGAGE REVENUE BONDS
INDIANA HOUSING FINANCE AUTHORITY: SINGLE FAMILY MORTGAGE REVENUE
BONDS
LOUISIANA HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY: HOMEOWNERSHIP PROGRAM
OKLAHOMA HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY: HOMEOWNERSHIP LOAN PROGRAM
We have also have affirmed the State of Alaska's Aaa rating and
stable outlook. While Alaska's federal employment levels
create a high level of economic linkage to the sovereign rating,
the state's finances are driven almost entirely by the oil and gas
sector. Alaska's economic and financial separation is significant
enough that in our opinion the state would not likely be affected by a
potential one notch downgrade of the US government.
RATING RATIONALE
In December 2011, Moody's completed an assessment of its Aaa-rated
state and local government credits to determine their linkages to the
US government following the revision of the sovereign outlook to negative
on August 2, 2011. At that time, Moody's said
it would be screening state and local governments annually in order to
update the list of these indirectly linked municipalities. Today's
outlook revisions conclude our annual update to that assessment.
The large majority of Aaa-rated state and local governments demonstrate
an adequate degree of independence from the credit condition of the US
government and therefore could be rated higher than the sovereign if the
US government were to be downgraded by one notch. In total,
Moody's has Aaa ratings on 15 states and 433 local governments in
the US. Certain issuers, however, have greater exposure
to potential federal cuts or are highly dependent on federal employment,
procurement, or transfer payments.
The majority of US Aaa issuers that have stable outlooks still represents
a very small share of the more than 15,000 US public finance credits
rated by Moody's. Most of our non-US sub-sovereign
issuers tend to be highly exposed to the same macroeconomic and financial
sector pressures which affect the central government, whose credit
quality therefore typically anchors most sub-sovereign issuers'
ratings. Exceptions exist in a small portion of cases -- globally
roughly 5% of rated sub-sovereigns are rated higher than
their sovereign -- where issuers exhibit a high degree of independence
from the sovereign. Even for exceptions, however, limits
apply to their ability to be rated above the sovereign and they are typically
rated no more than 1-2 notches higher than the sovereign.
Moody's analysis to determine whether a municipal rating is linked
to the US government's rating focuses on specific metrics such as
federal procurement activity, federal employment and healthcare
employment as indicators of economic sensitivity. Medicaid expenditures
for states and public hospital expenditures for local governments as indicators
of direct exposure to federal spending are also considered, along
with the presence of short-term or puttable debt as an indicator
of exposure to capital markets disruptions.
Even if the outlook of the US sovereign rating is returned to stable,
the ratings of some of these states and local governments may remain pressured
and their outlooks may remain negative. The measures the federal
government ultimately takes to reduce its deficits could result in substantial
cuts to government spending or transfers in an area where the municipality
has a concentration and could result in an outsized impact on its economy
and finances.
Certain municipal issuers that already have negative outlooks for reasons
unrelated to US government rating pressure maintain those outlooks.
Additional information on those issuers can be found in the individual
research on those entities at www.moodys.com.
The outlook revisions for HFA pooled loan programs reflect an update to
the analysis Moody's concluded in August 2011. Generally,
unless there are certain strong levels of overcollateralization,
HFA pooled programs backed by single family whole loans with high proportions
of FHA mortgage insurance, and those backed by single family mortgage-backed
securities guaranteed by GNMA and other federal agencies, are treated
as linked to the US government. Formerly treated as a mix of direct
and indirect linkages, these program types are now all treated as
indirectly linked to the US.
A complete list of affected securities and a special comment with additional
analysis, "Update: Ratings of Aaa Municipal Credits Indirectly
Linked to the US Government" is available at www.moodys.com/USRatingActions.
RATING METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in rating the local government general
obligation bonds was General Obligation Bonds Issued by U.S.
Local Governments published in October 2009, the principal methodology
used in rating the state general obligation bonds was Moody's State Rating
Methodology published in November 2004, and the principal methodology
used in rating the related entities of the state and local governments
was The Fundamentals of Credit Analysis for Lease-Backed Municipal
Obligations published in December 2011.
The principal methodology used in rating the single family housing bonds
was Moody's Rating Approach for Single Family, Whole-Loan
Programs, published in May 1999, and the principal methodology
used in rating the state HFA MBS bonds was Strength in Structure:
Moody's Approach to Rating Single-Family Housing Bonds Secured
by Mortgage-Backed Securities published in October 1998.
Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for
a copy of these methodologies.
Other Factors used in this rating are described in: How Sovereign
Credit Quality May Affect Other Ratings, published in February 2012.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Nicholas E Samuels
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Public Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Timothy F Blake
Senior Vice President
Public Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's changes rating outlooks on 22 Aaa municipal credits indirectly linked to US government