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Rating Action:

Moody's changes the outlook on Guatemala's Banco Industrial to stable from negative; Affirms Ratings

05 Jul 2016

New York, July 05, 2016 -- Moody's Investors Service affirmed the long-term local and foreign currency deposit ratings of Ba1 and Ba2 of Banco Industrial, S.A. (Banco Industrial) and changed the outlook to stable from negative. The rating agency also affirmed the Ba1 foreign currency senior debt rating of Industrial Senior Trust and changed the outlook to stable from negative.

The rating action follows Moody's outlook change on Guatemala's Ba1 government bond rating to stable from negative. For details on this rating action please refer to Moody's press release "Moody's changes outlook on Guatemala's sovereign ratings to stable from negative, affirms Ba1 ratings", dated 30 June 2016.

Banco Industrial's ba3 baseline credit assessment (BCA) and adjusted BCA are unaffected by this action, as are its short term local and foreign currency deposit ratings of Not Prime as well as the Ba1(cr) and Not Prime(cr) long and short term counterparty risk assessments. The bank's B3(hyb) foreign currency junior subordinated debt rating and the B1 foreign currency subordinated debt rating assigned to Industrial Subordinated Trust remain unaffected as well.

The following ratings were affirmed, with the outlook changed to stable from negative:

Banco Industrial, S.A.:

Long term local currency deposit rating of Ba1

Long term foreign currency deposit rating of Ba2

Industrial Senior Trust

Long term foreign currency senior debt rating of Ba1

RATINGS RATIONALE

Moody's outlook change on Banco Industrial's long-term deposit ratings to stable from negative is in line with the action taken on the outlook for Guatemala's Ba1 government bond rating on 30 June. The stable outlook on the sovereign rating reflects the resiliency of the country's credit profile to the 2015 political crisis, posting robust growth, a lower fiscal deficit and stable debt metrics. Moody's also recognizes the government's fight against corruption and its effort to improve transparency and accountability, which will continue to strengthen the country's weak institutions, particularly in tax administration and rule of law.

The bank's Ba1 local currency deposit rating benefits from two notches of uplift from the ba3 BCA, incorporating Moody's assumption of very high public support, in the case of need. This assumption is based on Banco Industrial's important lending and deposit franchise as the largest bank in the country with about a quarter of market share. The bank's Ba2 foreign currency deposit rating is constrained by Guatemala's Ba2 sovereign ceiling for foreign currency deposits, which is one notch below the government bond rating.

"Banco Industrial's ba3 BCA reflects the bank's historically strong asset quality, its ample base of relatively low-cost core deposits, as well as substantial liquid resources and adequate profitability that leverage the bank's leading position in the Guatemalan banking system," said Moody's Analyst Georges Hatcherian. "However, the bank's standalone assessment is constrained by its weak core capitalization due to its high loan growth, carrying goodwill from prior acquisitions and hefty dividend payments -- the latter, in part, offset by intermittent capital injections."

The BCA also reflects Guatemala's Macro Profile assessed as "Weak", which incorporates the country's low GDP per capita notwithstanding steady growth in recent years and the quality of institutions which remains weak overall despite prudent monetary and fiscal management. The country's Macro Profile also considers the increasing funding risks for the Guatemalan banking system related to the ending of correspondent banking lines by some international banks. A prolonged loss of access to these funding sources would drive up costs and limit banks' ability to extend dollar-denominated loans -- particularly those devoted to trade finance -- curtailing earnings and internal capital generation, in addition to increasing refinancing risks.

The affirmation of Industrial Senior Trust's Ba1 foreign currency senior debt rating, with its outlook changed to stable from negative, is in line with the action on Banco Industrial's local currency deposit rating. Industrial Senior Trust is a Cayman Island-based trust, guaranteed by Banco Industrial.

WHAT COULD CAUSE THE RATINGS TO MOVE UP OR DOWN

Upward pressure on Banco Industrial's local currency deposit and foreign currency senior debt ratings is limited at this juncture as they are currently at the level of Guatemala's Ba1 sovereign rating. The bank's BCA could be lifted in the case of a significant and sustainable strengthening of its core capitalization, coupled with a maintained strong asset quality and a resilient profitability. If the BCA is lifted, Banco Industrial's foreign currency junior subordinated debt rating, as well as Industrial Subordinated Trust's foreign currency subordinated debt rating, would also face upward pressure.

The bank's deposit and senior debt ratings would be downgraded in the case of a downgrade of Guatemala's government bond rating. A downgrade of Banco Industrial's BCA, which could be triggered by a rapid increase in loan delinquencies with its ensuing negative impact on profitability and capital, would also warrant a downgrade of the bank's and trusts' ratings.

The last rating action on Banco Industrial, Industrial Senior Trust and Industrial Subordinated Trust was on 3 June 2015 when Moody's lowered the bank's BCA and adjusted BCA, downgraded its local currency deposit ratings and junior subordinated debt ratings, while it also downgraded both trusts' debt ratings.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks published in January 2016. Please see the Ratings Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Headquartered in Guatemala City, Guatemala, Banco Industrial reported total consolidated assets of GTQ90.8 billion (about $11.8 billion) and total shareholders' equity of GTQ6.3 billion (around $820 million) as of March 2016.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Georges Hatcherian
Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's de Mexico S.A. de C.V
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No. 405 - 502
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Mexico, DF 11000
Mexico
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M. Celina Vansetti
MD - Banking
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
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Moody's changes the outlook on Guatemala's Banco Industrial to stable from negative; Affirms Ratings
No Related Data.
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