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Rating Action:

Moody's changes the outlook on Metinvest's B2 corporate family rating to stable

09 Jul 2010

Moscow, July 09, 2010 -- Moody's Investors Service has today changed the outlook on the B2 corporate family rating of Ukrainian steel producer Metinvest B.V. to stable from positive. At the same time the national scale rating was downgraded to A2.ua from A1.ua.

The rating action was prompted by a recent announcement made by Metinvest that it was in negotiations to acquire the majority of Ilyich Steel Works (Ukrainian steel producer), a transaction which indicates a more opportunistic approach to development initiatives that current built into the positive outlook. At the same time the stable outlook continues to reflect the resilience of the operations of Metinvest and its good cost position as well as its moderate leverage.

Moody's commented that there are still a number of uncertainties related to expected cash outflows to complete the transaction, including the payments at the deal's signing and any future contingent payments. At present Moody's expect that the cash outflow for this acquisition over the next two years might lead to a material increase in total debt. This elevated debt level in turn might lead to credit metrics, particularly the (CFO-Dividends)/ Debt ratio, to move outside our guidance of 35% per year-end 2010 though the debt to ebitdta measure would remain commensurate with the current rating. However, the liquidity profile of Metinvest remains modest with debt maturities of around USD 930m by the end of 2011.

Recently Metinvest announced the possible acquisition of a significant stake (at least 75%) in the assets of Ilyich Iron and Steel Works. As purchase consideration we expect Metinvest to exchange assets, to make possible cash payments and to give a commitment in the range of USD 2.0 billion to modernize the Ilyich assets over the next 5 to 10 years. Even though we believe that the transaction makes sense for Metinvest in the long-term, given that it already supplies Ilyich to a large extent, the immediate effect is taking away any significant upward pressure on the rating particularly in the light of the modest short-term liquidity of Metinvest.

Since Metinvest is a fully integrated steel manufacturer with significant coal and iron ore resources its operating performance within the next two years should improve considerably compared to 2009 driven particularly by an increase in steel, iron ore and cooking coal prices in the first half 2010 which nonetheless have come to a halt recently due to increasing uncertainty about the pace of the economic recovery which might be slowed by the sovereign debt crisis.

Despite the strong expected cash flow generation and high cash balance helped by a bond issue of USD 500m in April 2010 Metinvest's liquidity profile remains just sufficient for the next 4 quarters. If the company were not to continue to refinance progressively its short-term debt maturities, cash sources particularly consisting of cash and funds from operations might not be sufficient to fully cover cash outflows for working capital, capex, debt repayments, dividends, possible purchase consideration for Ilyich and cash for day-to-day needs. Moody's notes that a significant part of the company's debt is based on secured but short term trade credit lines, which in the past have constantly been rolled over.

Moody's will monitor the final terms and conditions of the IIyich transaction and the extent to which it reflects a material change in the financial policy. Separately the rating could be downgraded if Metinvest short term liquidity profile was to tighten .

Downward pressure could also be exerted on the rating as a result of significantly higher leverage caused by an increase in the absolute level of debt, combined with lower cash flow generation not moving towards a CFO-dividends/debt ratio closer to 35% in 2010 and debt/EBITDA sustainably above 2.5x, stemming either from material negative free cash flows or debt-financed acquisitions or shareholder friendly actions, such as significant dividend payments to the parent. Failure to manage more headroom under covenants - contrary to Moody's current expectations - would also result in pressure on the rating.

The rating of the Metinvest bond at B3, a one notch down difference with the CFR, reflects a significant amount of secured debt which is ranking ahead of the unsecured bond. However, the bond benefits from upstream guarantees from some of the major profit generation operating entities, such as the company's iron ore mines and with the possibility of additional upstream guarantees to be implemented from the Metinvest's major steel producing entity, Azovstal, as soon as the outstanding Azovstal bond has been repaid in 2011. These upstream guarantees provide the bondholders direct access to the company's cash generating entities and therefore avoid structural subordination compared to existing bank agreements. As a result of the envisaged transaction with Ilyich, the coverage provided by guarantees for the Metinvest bond might be eroded if substantial assets of the guarantors belonging to Metinvest were to be merged with the Ilyich assets into a new entity, though this would likely not result in additional notching. Given the relatively high amount for secured debt, Moody's has assumed in its waterfall analysis that trade debtors would be treated similar to the treatment of secured debt holders and therefore trade debtors also rank ahead of the proposed bond issuance.

The principal methodology used in rating Metinvest was Moody's global steel methodology, published in January 2009 and available on www.moodys.com in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory on Moody's website.

Moody's last rating action on Metinvest was when the outlook on the B2 corporate family rating was changed to positive from stable on 23 April 2010.

Metinvest B.V., a company set up under Dutch law, but with major operations in the Ukraine is the largest steel and iron ore producer in the Ukraine. In 2009 the company generated revenues of USD 6 billion and operating profit of USD 604 million. Metinvest is owned 75% by System Capital Management, an investment holding company in the Ukraine. 25% of Metinvest's shares are owned by Smart group, also based in the Ukraine.

Paris
Eric de Bodard
Managing Director
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's France S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moscow
Larissa Loznova
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Eastern Europe LLC
Telephone: +7 495 228 6060
Facsimile: +7 495 228 6091

Moody's changes the outlook on Metinvest's B2 corporate family rating to stable
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