Downgrade of standalone assessments in line with Moody's global guidance; deposit and debt ratings affected in most cases
London, 31 May 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service has today lowered the standalone assessments
of 13 banks in Jordan, Lebanon, Pakistan and Ukraine.
Today's rating actions conclude the review that Moody's initiated
on 5 April 2012 in the context of an ongoing global review affecting all
banks whose standalone assessments are higher than the rating of the government
where they are domiciled. The downward revision of the affected
banks' standalone assessments reflects Moody's opinion of the extent to
which their creditworthiness is correlated with that of their domestic
governments' credit strengths.
The rationale for each affected banks' ratings is provided below
in the section entitled List of Rating Actions.
These rating actions stem from Moody's updated assessment of the linkage
between the credit profiles of sovereigns and financial institutions domiciled
within the country, which is discussed in the rating implementation
guidance "How Sovereign Credit Quality May Affect Other Ratings" published
on 13 February 2012, and further detailed in the special comment
"Banks and Sovereigns: Risk Correlations Constrain Standalone Bank
Credit Assessments" published on 30 April 2012.
RATINGS RATIONALE
- STANDALONE ASSESSMENTS
The downward revision of the affected banks' standalone assessments takes
into account (i) the degree to which their businesses depend on the domestic
macroeconomic and financial environment; (ii) the extent of reliance
on market-based funding, which is typically more confidence-sensitive;
and (iii) their direct or indirect exposures to domestic sovereign debt
relative to their capital cushions. Due to these factors,
the standalone ratings of all 13 affected banks were lowered by one to
three notches.
The standalone credit assessments of 11 of the 13 banks were lowered to
the level of their domestic government debt rating, reflecting Moody's
view that their creditworthiness is highly correlated to that of their
respective national government. The key drivers for these actions
are (i) the relatively low level of cross-border diversification
of their operations; (ii) the high level of balance-sheet
exposure to domestic sovereign debt, compared with their capital
buffers; and (iii) the absence of ongoing support from foreign ownership.
The standalone credit assessments of two of the 13 banks were lowered,
albeit to levels still higher than the ratings of their domestic government
(the standalone credit assessments of these banks exceed the sovereign
rating by one and three notches). Moody's says that these
exceptions reflect factors that help mitigate the risk correlations with
their respective domestic government, including high levels of cross-border
diversification and low levels of sovereign debt holdings.
- LOCAL-CURRENCY DEPOSIT AND DEBT RATINGS
The lowering of the 13 banks standalone assessments led to the downgrade
of 10 banks' local-currency deposit and debt ratings.
Nevertheless, as Moody's ratings also incorporate assumptions about
external support through its joint-default analysis (JDA) methodology,
ten banks whose standalone profiles were positioned at the sovereign rating
level continue to benefit from notching uplift in their debt and deposit
ratings due to systemic and parental support assumptions. The degree
of uplift depends on their systemic importance or shareholder composition
that includes a higher-rated parent.
WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN
As the key drivers of today's actions are mostly structural in nature,
Moody's considers that upwards rating pressure is unlikely over
the near-term. Beyond the foreseeable future, a combination
of an improving operating environment, declining sovereign-risk
exposures and increasing cross-border diversification may exert
upwards rating pressure. An improvement in the credit risk profile
of the national government could also positively influence the ratings.
Conversely, deterioration in the banks' operating environments
and/or a weakening of their standalone financial fundamentals could exert
downwards pressure on the ratings.
LIST OF RATING ACTIONS
The following rating actions were taken:
JORDAN
- ARAB BANK
The one-notch lowering of Arab Bank's standalone credit assessment
to baa2, three notches above Jordan's Ba2 sovereign debt rating,
reflects Moody's acknowledgement of the bank's relative resilience
to Jordanian sovereign risk, as evidenced by (i) the bank's
high degree of geographical diversification beyond Jordanian borders;
(ii) modest direct exposure to Jordanian government bonds; and (iii)
its relatively low level of market-based funding. The rating
action also takes into consideration Moody's expectation that the
bank will likely face increasing problem loans and provisioning costs,
owing to operating environment weaknesses in the bank's key markets.
Around three quarters of Arab Bank's group assets are outside Jordan,
which limits the bank's exposure to its home market macroeconomic
and financial challenges. The bank's large Saudi Arabian
(40% owned) unconsolidated affiliate (Arab National Bank) provides
additional diversification. Arab National Bank is booked at historical
cost, but constitutes a core asset (Arab National Bank has assets
of around USD31 billion against Arab Bank's group assets of USD46
billion). Arab Bank's direct and indirect exposure to Jordanian
sovereign risk is also moderate, at around 40% of group Tier
1 capital. The bank is predominantly funded through deposits,
has benefited from depositors' "flight to quality" during
previous periods of regional instability and maintains relatively low
market-based funding.
The outlook on all the bank's ratings is negative, reflecting
operating environment pressures and the negative outlook on Jordan's
sovereign debt rating.
- Bank Financial Strength Rating (BFSR) confirmed at C-,
now mapping to a baa2 standalone credit assessment from C-/baa1
- Long-term global local-currency deposit rating
downgraded to Baa2 from Baa1
- Short-term local-currency deposit ratings confirmed
at Prime 2
- Long and short-term foreign-currency deposit ratings
remain constrained by Jordan's foreign-currency deposit ceiling
at Ba3/Not prime
- Dubai branch's long-term foreign-currency
deposit rating downgraded to Baa2 from Baa1
- Dubai branch's short-term foreign-currency
deposit rating confirmed at Prime 2
- HOUSING BANK FOR TRADE AND FINANCE (HBTF)
The two-notch lowering of HBTF's standalone credit assessment
to ba2, in line with Jordan's Ba2 sovereign debt rating,
is driven by the linkages between the bank's credit profile and
sovereign credit risk. This reflects the bank's (i) high
exposure to Jordanian government debt, which is equivalent to over
200% Tier 1 capital; and (ii) moderate geographical diversification
outside of Jordan (foreign assets make up around a third of the bank's
assets and have a proportional contribution to net income). HBTF's
local-currency deposit ratings now incorporate one notch of uplift
from Moody's assessment of systemic support, reflecting the
bank's status as the second-largest Jordanian Bank,
with a 15% market share by assets.
The outlook on all the bank's ratings is negative, reflecting
the negative outlook on Jordan's sovereign debt rating.
- BFSR downgraded to D mapping to standalone credit assessment
of ba2 from D+/baa3
- Long and short-term global local currency (GLC) deposit
ratings downgraded to Ba1/Not Prime from Baa2/Prime-2
- Long and short-term foreign-currency deposit ratings
remain constrained by Jordan's foreign-currency deposit ceiling
at Ba3/Not Prime
LEBANON
For each Lebanese bank listed below, Moody's lowered their
standalone credit assessments such that each is now in line with Lebanon's
B1 sovereign debt rating. In each case, the lowering of these
standalone credit profiles is driven by the linkages between the bank's
credit profile and sovereign credit risk.
Moody's says although that systemic support assumptions in Lebanon
are constrained by the system's high dollarization, the rating
agency considers that there is a high probability that each of the three
largest Lebanese bank listed below would receive systemic support,
in case of need.
- BANK AUDI
Moody's lowered Bank Audi's standalone credit assessment by
one notch to b1. This reflects the bank's (i) high exposure
to Lebanese government debt, which is equivalent to around 350%
of Tier 1 capital, when including investments in Lebanese Central
Bank certificates of deposits; and (ii) moderate geographical diversification
outside of Lebanon (foreign assets make up just under 30% of consolidated
assets).
The confirmation of the bank's long-term GLC deposit ratings
at Ba3 reflects the incorporation of one-notch of rating uplift
from Moody's assessment of the high likelihood that Bank Audi (Lebanon's
largest bank) would receive systemic support if needed.
The stable outlook assigned to all of Bank Audi's ratings is in
line with the stable outlook on the Lebanon's debt ratings.
- BFSR downgraded to E+, mapping to a standalone credit
assessment of b1, from D-/ba3
- Long-term GLC deposit rating confirmed at Ba3
- Short-term GLC deposit rating affirmed at Not Prime
- Long-term NSR confirmed at Aa1.lb
- Short-term NSR affirmed at LB1
- Long and short-term foreign-currency deposit ratings
remain constrained by Lebanon's foreign-currency deposit
ceiling at B1/Not Prime
- BLOM BANK
Moody's lowered Blom Bank's standalone credit assessment by
one notch to b1. This reflects the bank's (i) high exposure
to Lebanese government debt, which is equivalent to over 400%
of Tier 1 capital, when including investments in Lebanese Central
Bank certificates of deposits; and (ii) moderate geographical diversification
outside of Lebanon (foreign assets make up around a third of consolidated
assets).
The confirmation of the bank's long-term GLC deposit ratings
at Ba3 reflects the incorporation of one-notch of rating uplift
from Moody's assessment of the high likelihood that Blom Bank (Lebanon's
second largest bank) would receive systemic support if needed.
The stable outlook assigned to all of Blom Bank's ratings is in
line with the stable outlook on the Lebanon's debt ratings.
- BFSR downgraded to E+, mapping to a standalone credit
assessment of b1, from D-/ba3
- Long-term GLC deposit rating confirmed at Ba3
- Short-term GLC deposit rating affirmed at Not Prime
- Long-term NSR confirmed at Aa1.lb
- Short-term NSR affirmed at LB1
- Long and short-term foreign-currency deposit ratings
remain constrained by Lebanon's foreign-currency deposit
ceiling at B1/Not Prime
- BYBLOS BANK
Moody's lowered Byblos Bank's standalone credit assessment
by one notch to b1. This reflects the bank's (i) high exposure
to Lebanese government debt, which is equivalent to just under 400%
of Tier 1 capital, when including investments in Lebanese Central
Bank certificates of deposits; and (ii) moderate geographical diversification
outside of Lebanon (foreign assets make up around a third of consolidated
assets).
The confirmation of the bank's long-term GLC deposit ratings
at Ba3 reflects the incorporation of one-notch of rating uplift
from Moody's assessment of the high likelihood that Byblos Bank
(Lebanon's third largest bank) would receive systemic support if
needed.
The stable outlook assigned to all of Byblos' ratings is in line
with the stable outlook on the Lebanon's debt ratings.
- BFSR downgraded to E+, mapping to a standalone credit
assessment of b1, from D-/ba3
- Long-term GLC deposit rating confirmed at Ba3
- Short-term GLC deposit rating affirmed at Not Prime
- Long-term foreign-currency subordinated debt rating
confirmed at B1
- Long-term NSR confirmed at Aa2.lb
- Short-term NSR affirmed at LB1
- Long and short-term foreign-currency deposit ratings
remain constrained by Lebanon's foreign-currency deposit
ceiling at B1/Not Prime
PAKISTAN
For each Pakistani bank listed below, Moody's lowered their
standalone credit assessments such that each is now in line with Pakistan's
B3 sovereign debt rating. In each case, the lowering of these
standalone credit profiles is driven by the linkages between the bank's
credit profile and sovereign credit risk.
Moody's says that following today's rating actions,
the local-currency ratings of each Pakistani bank listed below
now incorporate one notch of uplift from Moody's assessment of systemic
support.
- ALLIED BANK LIMITED
Moody's lowered Allied's standalone credit assessment by two
notches to b3. This reflects the bank's (i) high exposure
to Pakistan government debt, which account for 430% of the
bank's Tier 1 capital; and (ii) geographical concentration
in Pakistan's weak and volatile operating environment. Allied
Bank's local currency deposit ratings now incorporate one notch
of uplift from Moody's assessment of systemic support.
The stable outlook assigned to all of Allied's ratings is in line
with the stable outlook on Pakistan's debt ratings.
- BFSR affirmed at E+ and standalone credit assessment lowered
to b3 from b1
- Local-currency long-term deposit rating downgraded
to B2 from B1 and short-term ratings affirmed at Not Prime
- Long-term foreign-currency deposit rating of B3
and Not Prime short-term deposit ratings are unaffected
- HABIB BANK LTD
Moody's lowered Habib's standalone credit assessment by two
notches to b3. This reflects the bank's (i) high exposure
to Pakistan government debt, which account for 400% of the
bank's Tier 1 capital; (ii) modest geographical diversification
outside of Pakistan's weak and volatile operating environment,
with foreign assets contributing 7% to its pre-tax earnings.
Habib Bank's local currency deposit ratings now incorporate one
notch of uplift from Moody's assessment of systemic support.
The stable outlook assigned to all of Habib's ratings is in line
with the stable outlook on Pakistan's debt ratings.
- BFSR affirmed at E+ and standalone credit assessment lowered
to b3 from b1
- Local-currency long-term deposit rating downgraded
to B2 from B1 and short-term ratings affirmed at Not Prime
- Long-term foreign-currency deposit rating of B3
and Not Prime short-term deposit ratings are unaffected
- MCB BANK LIMITED
MCB Bank Limited
Moody's lowered MCB's standalone credit assessment by three
notches to b3. This reflects the bank's (i) high exposure
to Pakistan government debt, which account for 380% of the
bank's Tier 1 capital; and (ii) very limited geographical diversification
outside of Pakistan's weak and volatile operating environment,
with foreign assets contributing 2% to its pre-tax earnings.
MCB's local currency deposit ratings now incorporate one notch of
uplift from Moody's assessment of systemic support.
The stable outlook assigned to all of MCB's ratings is in line with
the stable outlook on Pakistan's debt ratings.
- BFSR downgraded to E+, mapping to baseline credit
assessment of b3, from D-/ba3
- Local-currency long-term deposit rating downgraded
to B2 from Ba3 and short-term ratings affirmed at Not Prime
- Long-term foreign-currency deposit rating of B3
and Not Prime short-term deposit ratings are unaffected
- NATIONAL BANK OF PAKISTAN
Moody's lowered NBP's standalone credit assessment by three
notches to b3. This reflects the bank's (i) high exposure
to Pakistan government debt, which account for 252% of the
bank's Tier 1 capital; and (ii) modest geographical diversification
outside of Pakistan's weak and volatile operating environment,
with foreign assets contributing 7% to its pre-tax earnings.
NBP's local currency deposit ratings now incorporate one notch of
uplift from Moody's assessment of systemic support.
The stable outlook assigned to all of NBP's ratings is in line with
the stable outlook on Pakistan's debt ratings.
- BFSR downgraded to E+, mapping to baseline credit
assessment of b3, from D-/ba3
- Local-currency long-term deposit rating downgraded
to B2 from Ba3 and short-term ratings affirmed at Not Prime
- Long-term foreign-currency deposit rating of B3
and Not Prime short-term deposit ratings are unaffected
- UNITED BANK LTD
Moody's lowered United's standalone credit assessment by two
notches to b3. This reflects the bank's (i) high exposure
to Pakistan government debt, which account for 380% of the
bank's Tier 1 capital; and (ii) modest geographical diversification
outside of Pakistan's weak and volatile operating environment,
with foreign assets contributing 12% to its pre-tax earnings.
United Bank's local currency deposit ratings now incorporate one
notch of uplift from Moody's assessment of systemic support.
The stable outlook assigned to all of United's ratings is in line
with the stable outlook on Pakistan's debt ratings.
- BFSR affirmed at E+ and standalone credit assessment lowered
to b3 from b1
- Local-currency long-term deposit rating downgraded
to B2 from B1 and short term ratings affirmed at Not Prime
- Long-term foreign-currency deposit rating of B3
and Not Prime short-term deposit ratings are unaffected
UKRAINE
- OTP BANK UKRAINE (OTPU)
The two-notch lowering OTPU's standalone credit assessment
to b2, in-line with Ukraine's B2 sovereign rating,
is driven primarily by the linkages between the bank's credit profile
and sovereign credit risk. This reflects the bank's (i) sizable
exposure to Ukraine's government bonds, which account for
over 80% of the bank's Tier 1 capital, as of year-end
2011; and (ii) the geographical concentration of the bank's
business in Ukraine's weak and volatile operating environment.
The local currency deposit rating was downgraded by one notch to Ba3,
but remains above Ukraine's sovereign debt rating, reflecting
Moody's assumptions of the high probability of parental support.
OTPU is 100% owned by OTP Bank (Ba1/Negative, D+/ba1/Negative)
in Hungary. The negative outlook assigned to OTPU's deposit
ratings are in line with the negative outlook on Ukraine's government's
debt ratings.
- BFSR and standalone credit assessment downgraded to E+/b2,
from D-/ba3
- Local-currency long-term deposit rating downgraded
to Ba3 from Ba2
- National Scale Rating (NSR) affirmed at Aa1.ua
- Stable outlook on BFSR, negative outlook on all the other
long-term ratings (except NSR, which does not carry an outlook)
- PRIVATBANK
The one-notch lowering of Privatbank's standalone credit
assessment to b1, one notch above Ukraine's B2 sovereign rating,
is driven by (i) the bank's conservative risk positioning with regard
to the sovereign credit, with a track record of no direct or indirect
exposure to sovereign debt; (ii) a moderate level of business diversification
outside of Ukraine, with 20% of total assets related to off-shore
operations, as of year-end 2011; and (iii) limited dependence
on wholesale debt markets, with international facilities accounting
for 10% of total non-equity funding as at year-end
2011.
The bank's deposit rating was downgraded by one notch to B1 and
does not incorporate any uplift from systemic support, reflecting
the limited capacity of the country's public institutions to provide
such support. The negative outlook assigned to Privatbank's
debt and deposit ratings are in line with the negative outlook on Ukraine's
government's debt ratings.
- BFSR and standalone credit assessment downgraded to E+/b1
from D-/ba3
- Long-term local-currency deposit rating downgraded
to B1 from Ba3
- Long-term foreign-currency senior unsecured debt
rating confirmed at B1
- Long-term foreign-currency senior subordinated
debt rating downgraded to B2 from B1
- Stable outlook on BFSR, negative outlook on all the other
long-term global-scale ratings
- National Scale Rating (NSR) downgraded to Aa3.ua from
Aa1.ua
- UKREXIMBANK
The two-notch lowering of Ukreximbank's standalone credit
assessment to b2, in-line with Ukraine's B2 sovereign
rating, is driven primarily by the linkages between the bank's
credit profile and sovereign credit risk. This reflects the bank's
(i) sizable exposure to Ukraine's government bonds, which
account for over 40% of the bank's Tier 1 capital; (ii)
geographical concentration in Ukraine's weak and volatile operating
environment; and (iii) significant refinancing risks in the medium-term,
as foreign-market borrowings account for 35% of Ukreximbank's
total funding.
The bank's local currency deposit and debt ratings were downgraded
by two notches to B2 and do not incorporate any uplift from systemic support,
reflecting the limited capacity of the country's public institutions
to provide such support. The negative outlook assigned to Ukreximbank's
deposit and debt ratings are in line with the negative outlook on Ukraine's
government's debt ratings.
- BFSR and standalone credit assessment downgraded to E+/b2
from D-/ba3
- Local-currency long-term deposit and senior unsecured
debt ratings downgraded to B2 from Ba3
- Foreign-currency long-term senior unsecured debt
rating downgraded to B2 from B1
- Foreign-currency long-term subordinated debt rating
downgraded to B3 from B1
- B3 long-term foreign-currency deposit rating and
Not Prime short-term deposit ratings are unaffected
- Stable outlook on BFSR, negative outlook on all the other
long-term ratings
- RAIFFEISEN BANK AVAL
The ratings review of Raiffeisen Bank Aval, initiated on 5 April,
remains ongoing. The review of the bank's standalone ratings
will be concluded when Moody's concludes the review of Raiffeisen
Bank International's subsidiaries.
The principle methodologies used in these ratings were Bank Financial
Strength Ratings: Global Methodology published in February 2007,
and Incorporation of Joint-Default Analysis into Moody's Bank Ratings:
A Refined Methodology published in March 2012. Please see the Credit
Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
Moody's National Scale Ratings (NSRs) are intended as relative measures
of creditworthiness among debt issues and issuers within a country,
enabling market participants to better differentiate relative risks.
NSRs differ from Moody's global scale ratings in that they are not globally
comparable with the full universe of Moody's rated entities, but
only with NSRs for other rated debt issues and issuers within the same
country. NSRs are designated by a ".nn" country modifier
signifying the relevant country, as in ".mx" for Mexico.
For further information on Moody's approach to national scale ratings,
please refer to Moody's Rating Methodology published in March 2011 entitled
"Mapping Moody's National Scale Ratings to Global Scale Ratings".
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
The deposit ratings of rated entities National Bank of Pakistan,
United Bank Ltd, and Habib Bank Ltd were initiated by Moody's and
were not requested by these rated entities.
Rated entities National Bank of Pakistan, United Bank Ltd,
and Habib Bank Ltd or their agent(s) participated in the rating process.
These rated entities or their agent(s), if any, provided Moody's
access to the books, records and other relevant internal documents
of the rated entities.
The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entities or their designated
agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.
Information sources used to prepare the rating for Arab Bank, Housing
Bank for Trade and Finance, Bank Audi, Blom Bank, and
Byblos Bank are the following: parties involved in the ratings,
public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors
Service information.
Information sources used to prepare the rating for Allied Bank,
Habib Bank, MCB Bank, National Bank of Pakistan, United
Bank, Raiffeisen Bank Aval, and Ukreximbank are the following:
parties involved in the ratings, and public information.
Information sources used to prepare the rating for OTP Bank Ukraine,
and Privatbank are the following: parties involved in the ratings,
parties not involved in the ratings, public information, and
confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated
entities, obligations or credits satisfactory for the purposes of
issuing these ratings.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it
uses in assigning the ratings is of sufficient quality and from sources
Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate,
independent third-party sources. However, Moody's
is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or
validate information received in the rating process.
Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible
Service(s) to the rated entities or their related third parties within
the two years preceding the credit rating action. Please see the
special report "Ancillary or other permissible services provided
to entities rated by MIS's EU credit rating agencies" on the
ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for
further information.
In addition to the information provided below please find on the ratings
tab of the issuer page at www.moodys.com, for each
of the ratings covered, Moody's disclosures on the lead rating
analyst and the Moody's legal entity that has issued each of the
ratings.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com
for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com
for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and
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Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Elena Redko
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Interfax Rating Agency
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Moody's concludes review for downgrade on 13 banks in Jordan, Lebanon, Pakistan, Ukraine
