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Rating Action:

Moody's confirms 6 Infonavit RMBS deals ratings

 The document has been translated in other languages

20 Dec 2019

Mexico, December 20, 2019 -- Moody's de México, S.A. de C.V. ("Moody's") has confirmed current ratings of 6 RMBS issuances originated and serviced by the Instituto del Fondo Nacional de la Vivienda para los Trabajadores (Infonavit).

This action concludes the review for downgrade initiated on November 29, 2019 for the 6 Infonavit RMBS.

The complete list of deals is as follows:

Issuer: Infonavit - CDVITOT 11U & 11-2U

--CDVITOT 11U, A3 (sf) (Global Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

--CDVITOT 11U, Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

--CDVITOT 11-2U, A3 (sf) (Global Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

--CDVITOT 11-2U, Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

--Constancia Preferente, A3 (sf) (Global Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

--Constancia Preferente, Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

Issuer: Infonavit - CDVITOT 11-3U

--CDVITOT 11-3U, A3 (sf) (Global Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

--CDVITOT 11-3U, Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

--Constancia Preferente, A3 (sf) (Global Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

--Constancia Preferente, Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

Issuer: Infonavit - CDVITOT 12-2U

--CDVITOT 12-2U, A3 (sf) (Global Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

--CDVITOT 12-2U, Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

--Constancia Preferente, A3 (sf) (Global Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

--Constancia Preferente, Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

Issuer: Infonavit - CDVITOT 14U

--CDVITOT 14U, A3 (sf) (Global Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

--CDVITOT 14U, Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

--CDVITOT 14-2U, A3 (sf) (Global Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

--CDVITOT 14-2U, Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

--Constancia Preferente, A3 (sf) (Global Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

--Constancia Preferente, Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

Issuer: Infonavit - CEDEVIS 12U

--CEDEVIS 12U, A3 (sf) (Global Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

--CEDEVIS 12U, Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

--Constancia Preferente, A3 (sf) (Global Scale Rating Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

--Constancia Preferente, Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

Issuer: Infonavit - CEDEVIS 13-U

--CEDEVIS 13U, A3 (sf) (Global Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

--CEDEVIS 13U, Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

--Constancia Preferente, A3 (sf) (Global Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

--Constancia Preferente, Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale Rating) Current Rating Confirmed; previously on November 29, 2019 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade

RATINGS RATIONALE

The confirmation of the 6 Infonavit RMBS transactions' ratings reflects our assessment that the misclassification of the delinquency status (which may include non-performing loans (NPL)) of loans will not affect key deal-specific loan performance ratios.

On November 21, 2019, Infonavit announced it mis-reported the delinquency status of up to 116,705 residential mortgage loans that it originated and also services. Infonavit currently has approximately 5.5 million loans under management. As a consequence, the company estimated that the re-stated proportion of NPL loans in its portfolio may rise to as high as 11%.

According to information provided by Infonavit, the average number of misclassified loans relative to the total number of loans in the pools backing the 6 deals subject of this review is low. The current ratings are not affected due to the relatively small proportion of misstated loans in each of the transactions, the current transaction performance, our cumulative loss expectations, available credit enhancement and deal structure. The deals subject to this review currently benefit from significant amount of credit enhancement, 40% on average.

Considering the balance of the misclassified loans, plus the current level of delinquencies and NPL of each transaction, the 6 affected deals will not exceed the threshold of 16% of the original performing pool balance stipulated in the transaction documents. Such a breach would reprioritize available cash flows to investors, capturing excess cash flows and thereby accelerating amortization.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Approach to Rating RMBS Using the MILAN Framework" published in July 2019. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com.mx for a copy of this methodology.

The analysis undertaken by Moody's at the initial assignment of ratings for RMBS securities may focus on aspects that become less relevant or typically remain unchanged during the surveillance stage. Please see "Moody's Approach to Rating RMBS Using the MILAN Framework" published in July 2019 for further information on Moody's analysis at the initial rating assignment and the on-going surveillance in RMBS. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com.mx for a copy of this methodology.

Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:

Factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the ratings include: (1) performance of the underlying collateral that is better than Moody's expected; (2) deleveraging of the capital structure; (3) improvements in the credit quality of the transaction counterparties; and (4) a decrease in sovereign risk.

Factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the ratings include: (1) unsatisfactory data quality; (2) performance of the underlying collateral that is worse than Moody's expected; (3) an increase in sovereign risk; (4) deterioration in the notes' available credit enhancement; and (5) deterioration in the credit quality of the transaction counterparties.

The period of time covered in the financial information used to determine Infonavit - CDVITOT 11U & 11-2U's rating is between July 29th 2011 and December 18th 2019 (source: information provided by the originator; periodic collections and remittance reports from servicer, trustee and common representative agent.)

The period of time covered in the financial information used to Infonavit - CDVITOT 11-3U's rating is between December 7th 2011 and December 18th 2019 (source: information provided by the originator; periodic collections and remittance reports from servicer, trustee and common representative agent.)

The period of time covered in the financial information used to determine Infonavit - CDVITOT 12-2U's rating is between June 8th 2012 and December 18th 2019 (source: information provided by the originator; periodic collections and remittance reports from servicer, trustee and common representative agent.)

The period of time covered in the financial information used to Infonavit - CDVITOT 14U's rating is between July 15th 2014 and December 18th 2019 (source: information provided by the originator; periodic collections and remittance reports from servicer, trustee and common representative agent.)

The period of time covered in the financial information used to determine Infonavit - CEDEVIS 12U's rating is between February 10th 2012 and December 18th 2019 (source: information provided by the originator; periodic collections and remittance reports from servicer, trustee and common representative agent.)

The period of time covered in the financial information used to determine Infonavit - CEDEVIS 13-U's rating is between February 1st 2013 and December 18th 2019 (source: information provided by the originator; periodic collections and remittance reports from servicer, trustee and common representative agent.)

Moody's National Scale Credit Ratings (NSRs) are intended as relative measures of creditworthiness among debt issues and issuers within a country, enabling market participants to better differentiate relative risks. NSRs differ from Moody's global scale credit ratings in that they are not globally comparable with the full universe of Moody's rated entities, but only with NSRs for other rated debt issues and issuers within the same country. NSRs are designated by a ".nn" country modifier signifying the relevant country, as in ".za" for South Africa. For further information on Moody's approach to national scale credit ratings, please refer to Moody's Credit rating Methodology published in May 2016 entitled "Mapping National Scale Ratings from Global Scale Ratings". While NSRs have no inherent absolute meaning in terms of default risk or expected loss, a historical probability of default consistent with a given NSR can be inferred from the GSR to which it maps back at that particular point in time. For information on the historical default rates associated with different global scale rating categories over different investment horizons, please see http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1174796.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions of the disclosure form.

In issuing and monitoring this rating, Moody's de México S.A. de C.V. considered the existence and extent of arrangements and mechanism, if any, to align the incentives of the originator, servicer, administrator and guarantor of the securities with those of its potential acquirers.

Performance behavior (generally as expressed by factors such as the default rate, prepayment rate, any concentration of the obligors and/or underlying assets, valuation of underlying assets, yield or otherwise derived from historical experience) and related dependency of the underlying exposures from key transaction counterparties or related guarantor are expected to remain reasonably stable over extended period of times and not expected to lead to rating volatility. However indicators of significant shifts in the above factors on a stand-alone basis or combined, which may not have been addressed by structural mitigants, could result in higher degree of rating volatility.

In issuing this credit rating, Moody's de México S.A. de C.V. did not rely on ratings issued by any other credit rating agency over this issuer/security or any underlying securities.

The analysis includes an assessment of collateral characteristics and performance to determine the expected collateral loss or a range of expected collateral losses or cash flows to the rated instruments. As a second step, Moody's estimates expected collateral losses or cash flows using a quantitative tool that takes into account credit enhancement, loss allocation and other structural features, to derive the expected loss for each rated instrument.

Moody's quantitative analysis entails an evaluation of scenarios that stress factors contributing to sensitivity of ratings and take into account the likelihood of severe collateral losses or impaired cash flows. Moody's weights the impact on the rated instruments based on its assumptions of the likelihood of the events in such scenarios occurring.

Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's information.

The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entities prior to public dissemination.

A general listing of the sources of information used in the rating process, and the structure and voting process for the rating committees responsible for the assignment and monitoring of ratings can be found in the Disclosure tab in www.moodys.com.mx.

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.mx.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

This credit rating is subject to upgrade or downgrade based on future changes in the financial condition of the Issuer/Security, and said modifications will be made without Moody's de México S.A. de C.V accepting any liability as a result.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on www.moodys.com.mx for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com.mx for the last rating action and the rating history. The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see our website www.moodys.com.mx for further information.

Please see www.moodys.com.mx for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

The ratings issued by Moody's de Mexico are opinions regarding the credit quality of securities and/or their issuers and not a recommendation to invest in any such security and/or issuer.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com.mx for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Rodrigo Granovsky
Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's de Mexico S.A. de C.V
Ave. Paseo de las Palmas
No. 405 - 502
Col. Lomas de Chapultepec
Mexico, DF 11000
Mexico
JOURNALISTS: 1 888 779 5833
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Daniela Jayesuria
VP - Senior Credit Officer/Manager
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's de Mexico S.A. de C.V
Ave. Paseo de las Palmas
No. 405 - 502
Col. Lomas de Chapultepec
Mexico, DF 11000
Mexico
JOURNALISTS: 1 888 779 5833
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

No Related Data.
© 2021 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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