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Related Issuers
Rating Action:

Moody's confirms Bakai Bank's long-term ratings; outlook negative

19 Oct 2022

London, October 19, 2022 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today confirmed all long-term ratings and assessments of Kyrgyzstan based Bakai Bank OJSC (Bakai Bank) following Moody's confirmation of Kyrgyz Republic's B3 sovereign rating on 17 October 2022. Concurrently, Moody's confirmed Baseline Credit Assessment and Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment at b3 and affirmed the bank's short-term Counterparty Risk (CR) Assessment of Not Prime(cr) and short-term Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRRs) of Not Prime (NP), as well as short-term deposit ratings of Not Prime (NP). The outlook has been changed to negative from ratings under review. This concludes the review for downgrade that was initiated on 29 March 2022.

The confirmation of the Kyrgyz Republic sovereign rating reflects a degree of resilience to the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russian economy is a key source of oversees remittances of Kyrgyzstan, one of the important drivers of Kyrgyz economy. The negative outlook on the sovereign rating reflects the risks that the ongoing conflict, if prolonged or intensified, continues to pose downside risks to the Kyrgyz economy given significant linkages with Russia. (For further details, please see: https://www.moodys.com/research/--PR_469649).

A full list of affected ratings and assessments is provided towards the end of this press release.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Bakai Bank's rating confirmation reflects that the risks to the rating are not as acute as Moody's originally envisaged given better than previously forecasted macroeconomic environment. The latter underpins the confirmation of the sovereign credit rating for Kyrgyzstan at B3. A recent improvement in economic activity due to higher remittances and strong exports enabled to preserve Bakai Bank's key credit metrics at reasonable levels in H1 2022: e.g. Tier 1 to Risk Weighted Assets of 14%, Net Income to Average Assets of 10%.

The negative outlook on Bakai Bank's long-term deposit ratings continues to reflect Moody's expectations that the bank's ratings will likely be downgraded in the event of a downgrade of the sovereign rating. Bakai Bank's b3 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and B3 long-term deposit ratings are at the same level with the B3 long-term issuer ratings of Kyrgyzstan. The outlook incorporates downside risk that Kyrgyzstan's challenging operating environment will negatively affect Bakai Bank's key credit metrics. Weaker macroeconomic performance will negatively affect profitability, asset quality, capital and liquidity. Bakai Bank's assets and profits are predominantly derived from Kyrgyz Republic.

Economic slowdown and local currency volatility will add pressure on the creditworthiness of Bakai Bank's borrowers, particularly those in foreign currency. Bakai Bank's loan portfolio is highly dollarized with over 30% of gross loans are denominated in foreign currency. A weaker economy will also expose the bank's capital base to unexpected losses. Lower remittance flows from Russia will harm foreign currency liquidity of Bakai Bank and its domestic peers, given the high level of dollarization, with over 40% of the bank's deposits denominated in foreign currency.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

A positive rating action on Bakai Bank's ratings is currently unlikely, given the negative outlook. However, the outlook could be reversed to stable following the outlook on the sovereign issuer rating which will signal diminished risks of the operating environment.

The ratings could be downgraded in the event of a downgrade of Kyrgyzstan's sovereign issuer rating, and/or severe deterioration of the banks' operating environment or credit fundamentals.

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS

..Issuer: Bakai Bank OJSC

Confirmations:

....Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, Confirmed at b3

....Baseline Credit Assessment, Confirmed at b3

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Confirmed at B2(cr)

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating (Foreign Currency), Confirmed at B3

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating (Local Currency), Confirmed at B2

....Long-term Bank Deposit Ratings, Confirmed at B3, Outlook Changed To Negative From Ratings Under Review

Affirmations:

....Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed NP(cr)

....Short-term Counterparty Risk Ratings, Affirmed NP

....Short-term Bank Deposit Ratings, Affirmed NP

Outlook Action:

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Ratings Under Review

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks Methodology published in July 2021 and available at https://ratings.moodys.com/api/rmc-documents/71997. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on https://ratings.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

The local market analyst for this rating is Vladlen Kuznetsov, +971 (569) 944-890.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found on https://ratings.moodys.com/rating-definitions.

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the issuer/deal page for the respective issuer on https://ratings.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website https://ratings.moodys.com.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://ratings.moodys.com/documents/PBC_1288235.

The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on https://ratings.moodys.com.

Please see https://ratings.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the issuer/deal page on https://ratings.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Berke Batman
Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London, E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

Yaroslav Sovgyra, CFA
Associate Managing Director
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London, E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

No Related Data.
© 2023 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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