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Rating Action:

Moody's confirms Raiffeisenbank a.s.'s A3 covered bonds ratings

11 Mar 2015

London, 11 March 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service has today confirmed at A3 the ratings of the mortgage covered bonds issued by Raiffeisenbank, a.s. (not publicly rated).

Today's rating action concludes the review for downgrade that Moody's initiated on 30 December 2014.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Today's confirmation follows Moody's updated assessment of the issuer's credit strength and resolves the previous placement of the rating on review for downgrade. Moody's notes that the confirmation was not caused by a change in the underlying assets' credit quality.

In particular, the remaining legal uncertainty regarding whether over-collateralisation (OC) will remain in the cover pool and available for the benefit of covered bond holders after an insolvency of the issuer limits the rating uplift available by OC and therefore creates a strong link between the issuer rating and the covered bonds ratings.

Moody's reference point for determining the probability that Raiffeisenbank a.s will cease making payments under the covered bond programme, the covered bond (CB) anchor, is senior unsecured rating +1 notches, given that Raiffeisenbank a.s 's debt ratio is between 5% and 10%.

Moody's timely payment indicator (TPI) remains "Very Improbable" for these covered bonds.

KEY RATING ASSUMPTIONS/FACTORS

Moody's determines covered bond ratings using a two-step process; an expected loss analysis and a TPI framework analysis.

EXPECTED LOSS: Moody's uses its Covered Bond Model (COBOL) to determine a rating based on the expected loss on the bond. COBOL determines expected loss as (1) a function of the probability that the issuer will cease making payments under the covered bonds (a CB anchor event); and (2) the stressed losses on the cover pool assets following issuer default.

The cover pool losses for this programme is an estimate of the losses Moody's currently models if a CB anchor event occurs. Moody's splits cover pool losses between market and collateral risks. Market risks measure losses stemming from refinancing risks and risks related to interest rate and currency mismatches. These losses may also include certain legal risks. Collateral risks measure losses resulting directly from the cover pool assets' credit quality. Moody's derives the collateral risk from the collateral score.

The cover pool losses for this programme are 48.7%, with market risk of 41.2% and collateral risk of 7.5%. The programme's collateral score is 11.3%. The nominal OC in this cover pool is 44.0%, of which 0% is the statutory minimum. The minimum OC level that is consistent with the A3 rating is 17.5% in nominal value terms, of which the issuer should provide 0% in a committed form. These numbers show that Moody's is relying on uncommitted OC in its expected loss analysis.

All numbers in this section derive from Moody's most recent modelling, based on data as per 30 September 2014 for the cover pool assets and per 31 December 2014 for the covered bonds. For further details on cover pool losses, collateral risk, market risk, collateral score and TPI Leeway across all covered bond programmes rated by Moody's please refer to "Moody's EMEA Covered Bonds Monitoring Overview," published quarterly.

TPI FRAMEWORK: Moody's assigns a TPI, which indicates the likelihood that the issuer will make timely payments to covered bondholders in the event of an issuer default. The TPI framework limits the covered bond rating to a certain number of notches above the CB anchor.

FACTORS THAT WOULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATING:

The CB anchor is the main determinant of a covered bond programme's rating robustness. The TPI Leeway measures the number of notches by which Moody's might lower the CB anchor before the rating agency downgrades the covered bonds because of TPI framework constraints. The TPI Leeway for this programme is not public.

A multiple notch downgrade of the covered bonds might occur in certain limited circumstances, such as (1) a sovereign downgrade negatively affecting both the CB anchor and the TPI; (2) a multiple-notch lowering of the CB anchor; or (3) a material reduction of the value of the cover pool.

RATING METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Approach to Rating Covered Bonds," published on 12 March 2014. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

We published a Request for Comment (RFC) on 8 January 2015. In the RFC, we propose an adjustment to the anchor point we use in our covered bond analysis. The proposed changes in this RFC apply to all new and existing ratings for covered bonds. If we adopt the proposed changes, we expect more covered bond ratings to be positively affected than negatively affected. However, in light of the banking RFC (see RFC published on 9 September 2014 by our Banking group) and the CR rating RFC , measure (see RFC published on 8 January 2015 by our Banking group) we are not in a position to fully assess and disclose the exact impact of the proposed changes to our covered bond methodology https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBS_SF390257.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions of the disclosure form.

Moody's did not use any stress scenario simulations in its analysis.

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Hadrien Rogier
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Juan Pablo Soriano
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's confirms Raiffeisenbank a.s.'s A3 covered bonds ratings
No Related Data.
© 2021 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.

​

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