Hong Kong, June 27, 2022 -- Moody's Investors Service has confirmed SJM Holdings Limited's Ba3 corporate family rating (CFR) and the B1 rating on the backed senior unsecured bonds issued by Champion Path Holdings Limited and guaranteed by SJM.
Moody's has also revised the outlooks on these entities to negative from ratings under review.
This concludes the review for downgrade initiated on 25 October 2021.
"The confirmation of the ratings reflects the completed refinancing of SJM's loan facilities, which now provide the company with adequate liquidity for at least the next 12 months," says Sean Hwang, a Moody's Assistant Vice President and Analyst.
"That said, the negative outlook reflects the high uncertainty surrounding the pace and extent of SJM's earnings recovery, and our view that SJM's financial leverage will likely remain very high over the next 12-18 months," says Hwang.
RATINGS RATIONALE
SJM announced on 23 June 2022 that it had executed its HKD9 billion term loan facility and HKD10 billion revolving credit facility (revolver) with a syndicate of banks. The seven-year loan facilities will be used to repay SJM's existing loans and replenish its liquidity.
Following the refinancing, SJM no longer has large bullet maturities of debt until January 2026, while its new term loan will amortize quarterly in modest amounts from September 2023. SJM's cash and availability under the revolver totaling HKD6.0 billion-HKD6.5 billion based on Moody's estimate will be sufficient to cover its cash needs for at least the next 12 months, including some construction payments due during this period and the cash burn that is likely to continue for the remainder of 2022.
Moody's expects SJM's adjusted debt including lease liabilities to increase to around HKD30 billion over the next 12-18 months from HKD23.6 billion as of the end of 2021. This forecast factors in the expected revolver drawdown during this period and the HKD1.9 billion convertible bond from Sociedade de Turismo e Diversões de Macau (STDM) for SJM's acquisition of the Oceanus property.
At the same time, recovery in SJM's earnings will likely be protracted, as highlighted by the recent resurgence of Covid cases and the strengthening of travel restrictions in Macao SAR, China. Moody's currently assumes that Macao's mass-market gaming revenue will be around 40% of 2019 levels this year, before improving to 80% in 2023, with a full recovery in 2024. VIP revenue is unlikely to recover significantly because of the regulatory crackdown on junkets.
Given the above expectations, Moody's forecasts SJM's adjusted debt/EBITDA will exceed 10x in 2023 and only fall to 5.1x in 2024. This level of financial metrics in 2024 is still commensurate with SJM's Ba3 CFR, but significant risks exist over the assumed pace and magnitude of earnings recovery, driving the negative outlook.
SJM's Ba3 CFR continues to reflect its established gaming operations in Macao given its operational history of more than 50 years, as well as the company's conservative financial track record, which mitigates the risk associated with its geographic concentration in Macao.
The B1 rating on Champion Path Holdings Limited's senior unsecured notes is one notch lower than SJM's CFR because bank loans and subsidiary-level liabilities will remain a significant portion of SJM's liability structure even after the refinancing, and thus, have priority over the senior unsecured claims at the holding company in a default scenario.
ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE (ESG) CONSIDERATIONS
SJM Holdings' ESG Credit Impact Score is highly negative (CIS-4), mainly reflecting its highly negative exposure to social and governance risks.
SJM's social risks are driven mainly by the responsibility of gaming operators to prevent money laundering and problem gambling, as highlighted by Macao's gaming law revision in 2022. SJM also faces long-term risks around evolving consumer preferences that may not favor traditional casino gaming. However, this risk is partly offset by the growing entertainment spending and limited threats from online gambling in Asia.
SJM's governance risks mainly reflect the concentrated ownership and control of SJM by STDM and the previous delay in addressing loan maturities, which raised a degree of concern over SJM's financing execution and liquidity management. These risks are counterbalanced by SJM's track record of a conservative financial strategy.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
An upgrade of SJM's ratings is unlikely at present, given the negative outlook.
Moody's could revise SJM's outlook to stable if SJM improves its earnings, contains debt growth and maintains adequate liquidity. Credit metrics indicative of this scenario include SJM's adjusted debt/EBITDA falling below 5.5x on a sustained basis.
Moody's could downgrade SJM's ratings if the rating agency expects that the company's adjusted debt/EBITDA will stay above 5.5x, due to a prolonged weakness in earnings or a higher-than-expected increase in debt. This situation could arise from the impact of a protracted pandemic.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Gaming published in June 2021 and available at https://ratings.moodys.com/api/rmc-documents/72953. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on https://ratings.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
SJM Holdings Limited develops and operates casinos and integrated resort facilities in Macao SAR. The company is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and is 54% owned by Sociedade de Turismo e Diversões de Macau (STDM).
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
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The first name below is the lead rating analyst for this Credit Rating and the last name below is the person primarily responsible for approving this Credit Rating.
Sean Hwang
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong,
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
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Chris Park
Associate Managing Director
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong,
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077