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Rating Action:

Moody's confirms Senegal's Ba3 ratings, changes outlook to negative

07 Aug 2020

New York, August 07, 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today confirmed the foreign and local currency issuer and senior unsecured ratings of the Government of Senegal at Ba3 and changed the outlook to negative. The short term rating was affirmed at Not Prime (NP). This concludes the review for downgrade initiated on 12 June 2020.

The review for downgrade reflected Moody's assessment that the country's participation in the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) raised the risk that private sector creditors would incur losses. In the last few weeks, Moody's has considered the evidence of implementation of DSSI for a range of rated sovereigns, and statements by G20 officials.

While Moody's continues to believe that the ongoing implementation of DSSI poses risks to private creditors, the decision to conclude the review and confirm the rating reflects Moody's assessment that, at this stage, for Senegal, those risks are adequately reflected in the current Ba3 rating. It remains unclear what influence is being applied to Senegal and to other participating sovereigns to treat private creditors in a comparable manner to official sector creditors. However, a number of elements suggest that the probability of broad-ranging private sector involvement has diminished. These include the apparent absence of progress in discussions about how private sector involvement ('PSI') would be effected in DSSI in general; indications by the G20 that PSI would require the support of the borrowing government; the Government of Senegal's continued assertion that PSI is not contemplated; and evidence of some debt payments being made to private sector creditors under a DSSI regime.

The risks that remain relate to the possibility that in particular cases DSSI is implemented with private sector creditors also being drawn in to provide debt service relief and incurring losses doing so. Should the probability of default and losses to private sector creditors increase as implementation of DSSI for Senegal becomes clearer, Moody's would reflect any related changes in risks to private creditors in further rating announcements.

The negative outlook reflects risks associated with the relatively high central government debt burden, which Moody's expects to reach about 65% of GDP in 2021 from 56% in 2019, and 325% of revenue. The coronavirus shock is exacerbating an upward trend in the debt burden that started before the shock. Such a debt trajectory for an economy with Senegal's low wealth levels that constrain its shock absorption capacity raises the risks that the government becomes increasingly constrained in its ability to support the economy and/or source financing at low and stable costs.

All long-term ceilings for foreign-currency and local-currency deposits and bonds remain unchanged at Baa1.

RATINGS RATIONALE

RATIONALE FOR CONFIRMING THE Ba3 RATING

Moody's initiated a review for downgrade for Senegal's ratings following the country's participation in DSSI to reflect the potential for private sector losses given the call in the G20's 15 April term sheet for private creditors to participate in debt service relief on comparable terms to official creditors. The review for downgrade reflected the tension evident between Senegal's stated intention not to seek relief from private sector debt service obligations, and the clearly-stated view of key sponsors of the DSSI, specifically the IMF and World Bank, that private creditors should participate in the DSSI on comparable terms. Private sector losses incurred as part of the DSSI would likely constitute a default under Moody's definition.

There remains considerable uncertainty regarding the treatment of private sector creditors of the sovereigns which choose to participate in DSSI, including Senegal. Recent statements by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) suggest that some DSSI participants have had informal discussions with private sector creditors regarding deferral of interest.

However, the risk of broad-ranging involvement of private sector creditors in many or most DSSI cases appears to have diminished. There has not been any material progress in clarifying where and how private sector creditors would be asked to provide debt service relief. While the most recent communique issued by the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors on 18 July reiterated that sponsors "strongly encourage private creditors to participate in the DSSI on comparable terms," the clarifying language "when requested by eligible countries" seems to acknowledge the need for support from the borrower for that to happen. [1] Participating governments including Senegal have continued to assert that they do not wish to engage with private sector creditors. And a number of DSSI-participating governments have continued to make interest and coupon payments to private creditors as they fall due.

The risks that prompted the initiation of the review for downgrade for Senegal have not disappeared and there has been limited additional clarification since the initial DSSI terms were announced. However, the risks have become more specific to each DSSI implementation case and at this stage, Moody's assesses the probability that private sector creditors of Senegal incur losses through DSSI to be very low and captured in the Ba3 rating. Should the probability of losses to private sector creditors increase as implementation of DSSI for Senegal becomes clearer, Moody's would reflect any related changes in risks to private creditors in further rating announcements.

RATIONALE FOR THE NEGATIVE OUTLOOK

The negative outlook reflects the risks associated with the relatively high central government debt burden, which Moody's expects to reach about 65% of GDP in 2021 from 56% in 2019, and 325% of revenue from 280% in 2019. Although the coronavirus shock will lead to a spike in the debt/GDP ratio for most sovereigns, Senegal's projected debt burden exceeds that of Ba-rated peers especially when measured as percent of revenue, continuing a trend that was already exerting negative pressure on the rating prior to the shock. Taking into account outstanding debts of state-owned enterprises and parastatals would add another ten percentage points of GDP to the central government debt stock.

Such a debt trajectory for an economy with Senegal's low wealth levels that constrain its shock absorption capacity raises the risks that the government becomes increasingly constrained in its ability to support the economy and/or source financing at low and stable costs. Low GDP per capita at about $3,900 in 2019 (in PPP terms) indicates a constrained taxable income base to expand the tax/GDP ratio to the targeted 20% level (from about 17% before the pandemic) over the next three to five years, as projected under the medium-term revenue strategy outlined as part of the new three-year unfunded IMF Policy Coordination Instrument that commenced in January 2020. A higher domestic revenue base is key to help finance the second phase of the Plan Senegal Emergent 2019-23 while limiting recourse to non-concessional debt at onerous terms that would further challenge creditworthiness. Delays in the pace of targeted fiscal consolidation would render Senegal's elevated debt burden vulnerable to further shocks, potentially consistent with a lower rating level.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS

Environmental considerations are material to Senegal's rating and weigh on its economic strength. Senegal is exposed to recurring natural disasters, the credit impact of which is exacerbated by low wealth levels and the importance of agriculture for employment. This sector however has proved resilient to weather-related shocks lately, with a steadier contribution of agriculture in growth.

Social considerations have limited the speed of economic development of Senegal, though these are not material to the rating. We regard the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under our ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health and safety. For Senegal, the shock manifests mainly in deteriorating debt dynamics which are exacerbated by slower growth.

Governance considerations are material for Senegal's rating. Governance reforms have progressed with the support of the IMF under Senegal's Policy Cooperation Instrument (PCI), with a focus on public governance even though the improvement in fiscal outcomes has lagged.

GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 3,859 (2019 Actual) (also known as Per Capita Income)

Real GDP growth (% change): 6% (2019 Actual) (also known as GDP Growth)

Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 1.8% (2019 Actual)

Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -3.8% (2019 Actual) (also known as Fiscal Balance)

Current Account Balance/GDP: -7.8% (2019 Actual) (also known as External Balance)

External debt/GDP: 55.4% (2019 Estimate)

Economic resiliency: ba2

Default history: At least one default event (on bonds and/or loans) has been recorded since 1983.

On 03 August 2020, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the Government of Senegal. The main points raised during the discussion were: The issuer's economic fundamentals, including its economic strength, have not materially changed. The issuer's institutions and governance strength, have not materially changed. The issuer's fiscal or financial strength, including its debt profile, has materially decreased. The issuer's susceptibility to event risks has not materially changed.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Given the negative outlook, an upgrade is unlikely in the near term. Upward rating pressure could develop in the face of an increasing probability that the debt burden assumes a sustained downward trajectory after the acute phase of the coronavirus pandemic.

Delays in the pace of targeted fiscal consolidation after the acute phase of the coronavirus shock that point to an even more pronounced and longer increase in the debt burden would likely prompt a downgrade. Moreover, a rising probability private sector participation in DSSI would likely point to a lower rating commensurate with the potential losses to be incurred.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Sovereign Ratings Methodology published in November 2019 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1158631. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this credit rating action, if applicable.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website www.moodys.com.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1133569.

The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.

REFERENCES/CITATIONS

[1] G20 communique

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Elisa Parisi-Capone
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Marie Diron
MD - Sovereign Risk
Sovereign Risk Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

No Related Data.
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