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Announcement:

Moody's confirms ratings of one class of ABS notes issued by Mutual Securitisation PLC

Global Credit Research - 10 Sep 2010

Approximately GBP 42 Million of Debt Securities Affected.

London, 10 September 2010 -- Moody's Investors Service has today announced that it is confirming the B1 (sf) rating on the GBP140M Class A1 Limited Recourse Bonds due 2012 issued by Mutual Securitisation plc. Today's announcement brings to a close the review announced on 18 December 2009.

The review was prompted by concerns over the possibility that an Issuer Event of Default (EoD) had occurred under condition 11.c of the terms and conditions of the bonds. Moody's noted that the assets of the Issuer were estimated at approximately GBP 142 million, representing an asset shortfall of approximately GBP 14 million compared to the outstanding bond balance. This raised the possibility of the Issuer being deemed unable to pay its debts as and when they fall due within the meaning of 214 of the Companies Act 1963 of Ireland (as amended) and Section 2(3) of the Companies (Amendment) Act, 1990 of Ireland. The provisions of the relevant sections of these legislations contain a reference to a balance sheet insolvency test, explicitly noting that a company is unable to pay its debts as and when they fall due if, amongst other things, the value of its assets is lower than the value of its liabilities (including prospective and contingent liabilities). Such an EoD may lead to a pro-rata distribution of payments to the Class A1 and A2 bondholders, resulting in a loss to the Class A1 bonds.

Having reviewed the provisions in the documents and a recent legal opinion, Moody's is of the view that the limited recourse language in the documents is sufficient to prevent the Issuer failing this balance sheet insolvency test. However, should future audited accounts of the Issuer contain any qualifications in this regard, Moody's will need to conduct further investigations into this matter.

The B1 (sf) ratings for the Class A1 bonds are based on the rating approach summarised below: :

Under the transaction documents, the insolvency of National Provident Institution (NPI) could result in the pro-rata distribution of cash to the Class A1 and Class A2 bondholders. This would result in losses to the Class A1 bondholders of 10% to 20% depending on how much of the projected emerging surplus actually materialises. Moody's calculates the expected loss to investors by weighting the loss in the insolvency / no insolvency scenarios by the probability of default. NPI is currently an unrated entity and therefore Moody's relies on an internal Credit Estimate to determine NPI's probability of default.

When using credit estimates, Moody's applies the guidelines detailed in the "Updated Approach to the Usage of Credit Estimates in Rated Transactions" published in October 2009. Section III A of this report explains that when there is a high degree of reliance on the credit of a single unrated counterparty Moody's must consider the case where the counterparty is assumed to be rated Caa2. The methodology stipulates that the assigned rating of the security should be no more than two notches higher than the rating arrived at under this stress assumption. If we consider the case where NPI is assumed to have a rating of Caa2, we arrive at an expected loss on the bonds equivalent to a B3 (sf) rating, limiting the maximum rating of the Class A1 bonds to B1 (sf).

Date of last rating action: 18 December 2009 where the Class A1 bonds were downgraded from Ba3 (sf) to B1 (sf) and placed on review for possible downgrade.

The rating addresses the expected loss posed to investors by the legal final maturity. Moody's ratings address only the credit risks associated with the transaction. Other non-credit risks have not been addressed, but may have a significant effect on yield to investors.

Further Information on Moody's analysis of this transaction is available on www.moodys.com. In addition, Moody's publishes a weekly summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies, available to all registered users of our website, at www.moodys.com/SFQuickCheck.

London
Nicholas de Swardt
Vice President
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Paris
Annick Poulain
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
Moody's France SAS
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom

Moody's confirms ratings of one class of ABS notes issued by Mutual Securitisation PLC
No Related Data.
© 2018 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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