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Global Credit Research - 02 Jun 2010
Approximately $6 million of synthetic securitization of U.S. farm mortgage loans affected
New York, June 02, 2010 -- Moody's has confirmed the ratings of the certificates in a synthetic
securitization of U.S. farm mortgage loans originated &
serviced by Farm Credit Services of America. The securitization
is primarily a Credit Default Swap (CDS) to cover any losses on the underlying
reference pools of loans made to farmers in the Midwest. The pools
consist of real estate-secured first lien agribusiness loans.
Under the terms of the agreement, the CDS is required to pay an
amount equal to the outstanding balance of a defaulted loan less recoveries
if such defaults exceed the first loss position.
The certificates were placed on review for possible downgrade in March
2010 because of the increase in late stage delinquencies which exposed
them to potential losses. During the review period Moody's
has obtained information on the underlying pool. The loans have
strong loan to value (LTV) levels and relatively strong credit profile
of the borrowers (i.e., high FICO scores and low debt
to asset/income ratios). Furthermore, delinquencies in the
pool have decreased substantially since the review because of successful
resolutions and payoffs. Assuming a 100% roll rate to default
for all loans that are more than 60 days past due and 25%-50%
severity of losses, the B2 rated certificates in the securitization
would have 13.3-26.6 times loss coverage.
In our approach to projecting cumulative losses, we apply stressed
roll rates and loss severity assumptions for a projected stress period
and less severe assumptions for a projected stable period thereafter.
Our stress and stable period forecasts are in line with Moody's
Economy.com's baseline economic forecast. The stressed
assumptions are derived from actual roll rates and loss severities measured
at different points in time during the current recession. In projecting
expected losses over the stable economic period in the future, Moody's
softens its assumptions to match the pre-recession levels.
A transaction's ultimate expected losses are determined by adding
the resulting stable period projected losses to the stressed period projected
losses and the pool's current realized losses. The factors
driving the Aaa credit enhancement level for the deal include the credit
quality of the collateral pool, industrial and geographical concentrations,
obligor concentrations, the historical variability of losses,
the servicing quality, and the structural features of the deal.
Once the expected loss and Aaa proxy levels are established, the
adequacy of available credit enhancement to the existing ratings is assessed
using a cash flow model. The model incorporates a set of assumptions
about the collateral performance, including but not limited to the
timing and level of loan losses, the level of prepayments,
and interest rates, to assess whether the rated notes can be paid
back in full under the assumptions and given the proposed capital structure
and collateral pool characteristics. Moody's benchmarks the
Aaa credit enhancement level to obtain the levels for other ratings using
a lognormal distribution of losses.
Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process
of rating this deal can also be found in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory
on Moody's website. In addition, Moody's publishes
a weekly summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies,
available to all registered users of our website, at www.moodys.com/SFQuickCheck.
The complete rating action is as follows:
Issuer: Omaha 2008-A LLC
Certificates, Confirmed at Ba2; previously on Mar 3,
2010 Ba2 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
Moody's confirms ratings of the certificates in Omaha 2008-A LLC
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
No Related Data.
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