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Rating Action:

Moody's downgrades Cyprus's government bond ratings to B3 from Ba3, negative outlook

08 Oct 2012

London, 08 October 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded Cyprus's government bond ratings to B3 from Ba3, and has assigned a negative outlook to the ratings. Today's rating action concludes the review for possible downgrade announced on 13 June 2012.

The profound difficulties in the Cypriot banking sector, which are the result of deteriorating conditions in Greece and Cyprus, are the key driver of today's rating action. There are two aspects to this issue:

1.) In order to maintain appropriate domestic bank capital levels, the Cypriot government will likely need to provide financial support to the country's banks that could threaten the sustainability of the government's debt burden.

2.) The banking sector's difficulties will reduce domestic credit growth and severely constrain the country's growth potential, which will exacerbate existing economic and institutional weaknesses.

Moody's decision to assign a negative outlook to the rating reflects the adverse macroeconomic environment and policy uncertainty that poses further risks to the Cypriot government's credit strength. In particular, the Cypriot government has not yet reached an agreement on conditionality with the International Monetary Fund, the European Union and the European Central Bank, also known as the Troika, which is a precondition to receiving the financial support it will need to continue servicing its debt obligations beyond the end of 2012. Cyprus has lacked international market access for over one year, which is preventing the government from financing its own deficit or the banks' capital needs through the markets and therefore requires the sovereign to seek external assistance. In addition, the sovereign's credit strength would be greatly challenged if Greece were to exit the euro area, because of the severe impact it would have on Cypriot banks and more generally on the national economy.

RATIONALE FOR DOWNGRADE

The key driver of Moody's downgrade of Cyprus's government bond rating is the substantial increase in the amount of government support that Moody's believes the Cypriot banks are likely to require. In Moody's central scenario, the three largest Cypriot banks will require more than EUR8 billion in capital (equivalent to over 47% of GDP) from the government to replenish their core Tier 1 capital to 10%. The projected recapitalisation costs have risen sharply in recent quarters due to the large asset quality deterioration that has been recorded in the Cypriot banks' domestic and Greek loan books, a trend that Moody's expects will continue. Aggregate non-performing loans (excluding loans in arrears for more than 90 days that are fully covered by tangible collateral) for the three largest banks increased to 18% of gross loans in the first half of 2012, up from 12% in December 2011 and 8% in December 2010. Moreover a significant build-up of rescheduled loans signals the potential for asset-quality pressure in the near term.

The three largest banks' recapitalisation needs, should they materialise as projected in 2013, would raise the country's debt/GDP ratio to over 140% of GDP, a level which would be one of this highest in Moody's rating universe. Moody's attaches a high probability to the crystallisation of this risk and so has included these bank recapitalisation needs in its 2013 debt forecast. The rating agency believes that such a level may not be sustainable for a small economy with very weak expected nominal GDP growth such as Cyprus.

Cyprus's banking sector difficulties are also likely to have wide-ranging repercussions for the government's credit standing that go beyond the direct impact of recapitalisation on its debt metrics. Specifically, Moody's expects Cyprus's growth potential to be severely constrained by the country's banking crisis for the next three to five years, with real GDP growth turning only slightly positive in 2015. In part, this is because of the key role that the very large banking sector (and other sectors that are linked to banking) plays in the Cypriot economy, and the pressures the sector faces. Moreover, a deep recession would undermine the government's fiscal position still further. To address fiscal deterioration, the government will need to achieve substantial downward adjustments in the public-sector wage bill, which is unsustainably large. While such changes are probably unavoidable, in isolation they further undermine GDP growth over the near term due to their likely impact on domestic demand. Over the longer term, cuts in public-sector wages and increased unemployment may constrain future private-sector wage trends, and might therefore have positive second-order effects on competitiveness. However, Cyprus's competitiveness challenges are very significant and will take some time to be addressed.

In addition, in Moody's view, the government's previous record raises doubts about its ability to swiftly and vigorously implement such adjustments: its progress on fiscal reform to date has been mixed, and the delays experienced in agreeing a package of fiscal and economic reforms with the Troika illustrates institutional weakness founded on a lack of political consensus on the overall direction of fiscal and economic policy. This in turn increases implementation risks for any such programme of conditionality.

RATIONALE FOR NEGATIVE OUTLOOK

Cyprus has lacked international market access for over one year and will not be able to finance its own deficit or the banks' capital needs through the markets. The government had previously obtained bilateral support from Russia, but further support from that source, if it is forthcoming at all, is likely to be linked to Troika support (and the conditionality that accompanies it). In the absence of external liquidity support, Moody's estimates that the Cypriot government will run out of funds by the end of 2012.

The B3 rating and negative outlook reflect primarily concerns about the medium- to long-term sustainability of Cyprus's debt, since Moody's expects an agreement on conditionality will be reached and that liquidity support will be provided in order to contain default risk over the near term. The rating agency notes that a distressed exchange with private sector involvement (PSI) would be more difficult to execute in Cyprus than it was in Greece due to the nature of the country's lenders (even in the absence of a Troika programme, about ¼ of the debt stock is owed to multilateral lenders and other sovereigns) and the smaller share of debt that is governed by domestic law.

Moody's decision to assign a negative outlook to the B3 rating reflects in part the considerable risk that a potential Greek exit from the euro area would present to Cypriot banks and the sovereign. While a Greek euro exit is not Moody's central scenario, the rating agency estimates that, in the absence of significant ringfencing of the banks' Greek operations, a Greek exit would considerably increase Cypriot banks' losses. Recapitalisation needs would be projected to rise to around EUR12 billion, or nearly 70% of GDP, which in turn would raise Cyprus's debt/GDP ratio to over 160% of GDP.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP/DOWN

Moody's says that material upward movement in the rating is unlikely as long as debt levels are projected to remain at very high levels. The magnitude of the government's fiscal challenge is unlikely to change materially even following an agreement on conditionality because of the sheer size of the financial support needed for the banking sector.

The rating agency says that further downward movement in Cyprus's sovereign rating would be likely if a Greek exit from monetary union were to become more probable or if Moody's were to conclude that Cyprus was unlikely to receive liquidity assistance from the Troika (either now or in the future). Moody's expects further clarity over the coming months on the size of Cyprus's assistance from the Troika and the conditionality that will be attached to this support.

As mentioned above, both the current rating and the outlook assume that Cyprus and the Troika will reach an agreement on a package of conditionality. As a result, such an agreement will, by itself, not be sufficient for the outlook to move to stable. For this to happen, the risk of a Greek exit would need to fall substantially and macroeconomic uncertainties would need to moderate.

COUNTRY CEILINGS

As a consequence of the rating action on the sovereign, Moody's has today also lowered the maximum rating that can be assigned to a domestic issuer in Cyprus, including structured finance securities backed by Cypriot receivables, to B1. This is in line with Moody's practice in other euro area countries now that the rating agency no longer assigns a uniform Aaa ceiling to the members of the euro area. The lower ceiling reflects the increased risk of economic and financial dislocations. Moody's has also lowered the short-term foreign-currency country and deposit ceilings to Not Prime from Prime-1. No fundamental or structured ratings are affected by the repositioning of the ceilings.

Cyprus's adjusted country ceiling reflects Moody's assessment that the risk of economic and financial instability in the country has increased. The weakness of the economy and the sovereign's lack of access to international markets constitutes a substantial risk factor to other (non-government) issuers in Cyprus as income and access to liquidity and funding could be sharply curtailed for all classes of borrowers. Further deterioration in the financial sector cannot be excluded, which could lead to potentially severe systemic economic disruption and reduced access to credit. Finally, the ceiling reflects the risk of exit and redenomination in the event of a default by the sovereign. If the Cypriot government's rating were to fall further from its current B3 level, Moody's would reassess the country ceiling and likely lower it at that time. Similarly, Moody's would also reassess the country ceiling in the event of an upgrade of the Cypriot government's bond rating.

Moody's country ceilings capture externalities and event risks that arise unavoidably as a consequence of locating a business in a particular country and that ultimately constrain domestic issuers' ability to service their debt obligations. As such, the ceiling encapsulates elements of economic, financial, political and legal risks in a country, including political instability, the risk of government intervention, the risk of systemic economic disruption, severe financial instability risks, currency redenomination and natural disasters, among other factors, that need to be incorporated into the ratings of the strongest issuers. The ceiling caps the credit rating of all issuers and transactions with material exposure to those risks -- in other words, it affects all domestic issuers and transactions other than those whose assets and revenues are predominantly sourced from or located outside of the country, or which benefit from an external credit support.

The principal methodology used in this rating was Sovereign Bond Ratings published in September 2008. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

For a more detailed discussion of Moody's approach to country risk ceilings, please see Moody's Rating Implementation Guidance entitled "Local-Currency Country Risk Ceiling for Bonds and Other Local Currency Obligations", published on 16 August 2012.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

The rating has been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following : parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, and public information.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible Service(s) to the rated entity or its related third parties within the two years preceding the credit rating action. Please see the special report "Ancillary or other permissible services provided to entities rated by MIS's EU credit rating agencies" on the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.

Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.

The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Sarah Carlson
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Bart Oosterveld
MD - Sovereign Risk
Sovereign Risk Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's downgrades Cyprus's government bond ratings to B3 from Ba3, negative outlook
No Related Data.
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