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Rating Action:

Moody's downgrades ANCAP's rating to B1; outlook remains stable

14 Jul 2015

New York, July 14, 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service today downgraded the Corporate Family Rating on Administración Nacional de Combustibles, Alcohol y Portland (ANCAP) to B1 from Ba2. Moody's also downgraded the company's Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) to caa1 from b2. These rating actions reflect the company's weak credit metrics, which Moody's believes will not reverse rapidly. The outlook on the ratings is stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The downgrade of ANCAP's BCA (a measure of the issuer's intrinsic risk regardless of its controlling entity) to caa1 reflects a weaker stand-alone credit profile derived mainly from the company's increased debt burden and persistent negative operating margins and cash generation. ANCAP, owned by the government of Uruguay, is the only refiner in the country, responsible for supplying 100% of the domestic needs of oil products. Because Uruguay does not have crude production, the company depends 100% on oil imports. In the last years, the government of Uruguay had prevented ANCAP from passing on cost increases, specially of crude, to final prices, which caused losses and increase in debt. In the short to medium term, Moody's believes that, despite the new government's guideline for more independent SOEs (sovereign-owned enterprises), it will be difficult for ANCAP to get approval for sizable price increases that would materially and rapidly help reverse negative operating margins and cash flows, given high annual inflation rate, at about 8%. In addition, cost cuts may be difficult to achieve by a company with limited cash to invest further in equipment or technology upgrades and a strong workforce.

As of December 2014, ANCAP's total adjusted debt amounted to approximately USD 875 million, the equivalent to USD 3,130 per complexity barrel; Moody's-adjusted debt amount in the same period includes USD 325 million owed to PDVSA for purchase of crude oil. Although ANCAP's leverage has increased substantially during 2012-2014, above historical levels, Moody's expects the amount of debt to stabilize going forward, now that the works at the La Teja Refinery have finished and capex has declined. However, operating margins will remain under pressure over the medium to long term, especially as crude prices start to increase again, as Moody's expects will gradually happen in the next couple of years.

ANCAP's caa1 BCA is supported by its monopoly position in refining and dominant position in wholesale marketing in Uruguay. However, the BCA also considers the company's relatively small size, particularly in the context of its exposure to volatile and cyclical commodity prices, dependence on crude oil imports, as well as its reliance on a single refinery. ANCAP's crude distillation capacity of 50,000 bpd at a single complex (La Teja) raises concentration and operating risk issues.

Since ANCAP is 100% owned by the Uruguayan government, it is considered a government related issuer (GRI) under Moody's methodology for such entities. ANCAP's B1 Corporate Family Rating is based on its BCA of caa1, medium dependence, reflecting the moderate degree of correlation between factors that could lead to financial stress on ANCAP and the government at the same time, and a high probability of extraordinary support from the government. The government's willingness to support the company is based on its 100% ownership of ANCAP's, the company's monopoly status for refining activities in Uruguay, and its strategic importance to Uruguay's economy and national security. The high support level embedded in ANCAP's ratings was evidenced in early 2013 by the USD 500 million loan equivalent that the government granted to the company, which basically replaced half of ANCAP's total outstanding debt at the time; the government loan is denominated in local currency ("UI" or "unidades indexadas") and therefore reduced ANCAP's exposure to FX risk. In addition, the government of Uruguay's ability to provide support to ANCAP is measured by its Baa2 local currency rating with a stable outlook.

ANCAP's liquidity position is weak. Its cash flow is subject to the volatility of commodity prices and it needs to constantly roll-over short-term bank loans, which represented close to 60% of total debt as of December 2014. Foreign exchange risk is also high for ANCAP since imports are 100% U.S. dollar denominated and 80% of its debt is in U.S. dollars. However, although the company does not have access to committed credit facilities, as a government owned entity it has ample access to local and international bank financing in Uruguay.

The stable rating outlook reflects Moody's expectation that ANCAP's operating and financial performance over the short to medium term will be based on possible local prices increases, which the rating agency believes will not be enough to materially revert current weak credit protection metrics promptly.

Given ANCAP's current debt levels and weak operating and credit metrics, an upgrade of its BCA is not likely in the short to medium term. However, an upgrade of Uruguay's ratings could add upward rating pressure on ANCAP's Corporate Family Rating. Conversely, if the company's operating margins and free cash flow do not turn positive during 2015 and its debt continues increasing, its ratings could be downgraded further.

The principal methodology used in this rating was Global Refining and Marketing Rating Methodology published in December 2009. Other methodologies used include the Government-Related Issuers published in October 2014. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

Administración Nacional de Combustibles, Alcohol y Portland (ANCAP) is Uruguay's state-owned oil company with a monopoly position in refining and wholesale marketing within Uruguay. ANCAP owns Uruguay's only refinery (La Teja), with a Nelson complexity rating of 8 and a crude distillation capacity of 50,000 barrels per day; it is also engaged in the production of cement. ANCAP is the largest company in Uruguay, with revenues and total assets of USD 2.1 billion and USD 2.1 billion, respectively, in 2014.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

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Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Nymia C. Almeida
VP - Senior Credit Officer
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Moody's downgrades ANCAP's rating to B1; outlook remains stable
No Related Data.
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