Approximately $1.75 billion of debt affected
London, 12 July 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the issuer rating
of AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AGA) to Baa3 from Baa2. Concurrently,
Moody's has downgraded the senior unsecured debt obligations of
AGA's guaranteed subsidiary, AngloGold Ashanti Holdings plc,
to Baa3 from Baa2. The outlook on all ratings has been changed
to negative from stable.
Downgraded:
..Issuer: AngloGold Ashanti Limited
.... Issuer Rating, Downgraded to Baa3
from Baa2
..Issuer: AngloGold Ashanti Holdings plc
....USD700m Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture
Apr 15, 2020, Downgraded to Baa3 from Baa2
....USD750m Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture
Aug 01, 2022, Downgraded to Baa3 from Baa2
....USD300m Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture
Apr 15, 2040, Downgraded to Baa3 from Baa2
RATINGS RATIONALE
Today's downgrade to Baa3 from Baa2 primarily reflects the increased
risk that AGA will no longer be able to sustain its credit metrics such
that they are commensurate with a Baa2 rating under our current Moody's
forecast assumptions.
The downgrade, and negative outlook, also reflect that only
in 2014 will AGA realise the full benefits of many of the measures it
is taking to reduce its cash outflows in response to lower gold prices,
and that these remedial steps may not be sufficient to stabilise operating
margins and operating cash flow, especially if the gold price continues
to decline. In addition, the outlook factors an additional
risk facing AGA of potential prolonged strike action at AGA's South
African operations as a result of wage negotiations this year.
Furthermore, the rollout of AGA's two key projects,
Kibali and Tropicana, have continued to consume both internally
generated cash and debt funding, albeit Moody's expects that
both projects will come into production by the end of 2013 within budget.
All of these factors may pressure AGA's liquidity profile over the
next 12 months and place stress on the financial covenants contained in
the company's banking facilities.
--RISK OF PROLONGED STRIKE ACTION--
Moody's expects the company to take proactive steps with regard
to strengthening its liquidity profile to accommodate the potential for
liquidity pressures as a result of possible strike action at its South
African operations. While Moody's recognises a number of
positive initiatives with regard to the wage negotiation process for AGA's
South African gold mines, the negative rating outlook reflects that
concerns still remain around the following: (1) the aggressive wage
demands (60% increase) made for entry-level workers by the
National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), which represents 65%
of South African gold miners, and even more aggressive demands (100%
increase) made for entry-level workers by the Association of Mineworkers
and Construction Union (AMCU), which represents 17% of South
African gold miners; and (2) the fact that AMCU is not yet a signatory
to the framework agreement for a sustainable mining industry, which
suggests that it may not conform to a smooth wage negotiation process.
Should there be protracted strike action at AGA's South African
mines due to a failure in the wage negotiation process, Moody's
expects that AGA's liquidity would come under strain and the potential
loss in EBITDA would lead to net debt/EBITDA approaching the 3.0x
trigger level set on the company's banking facilities. Covenant
levels are reported at 30 June and 31 December each year using 12-month
rolling EBITDA and debt as of the reporting period.
--INCREASED RISK OF DETERIORATING CREDIT METRICS--
Given AGA's current debt load and cost structure, coupled
with its forecast capex spend and negative cash flow generation,
Moody's expects that under the rating agency's forecast assumptions,
the company's debt would rise over the next year and push its credit
metrics beyond the levels appropriate for a Baa2 rating. Moody's
notes that AGA's capex spend has pressured its free cash flow and
debt, driven by the company's key projects, the Kibali
joint venture in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Tropicana
in Australia. Moody's expects that, together,
these projects will contribute approximately 600,000 ounces/annum
from 2014 to AGA's production portfolio. While Moody's
had previously factored that AGA would largely fund project capex with
internal cash flow generation, the company has had to apply more
debt to these projects than originally planned, given its lower
cash flow generation due to the current adverse gold price environment.
The negative outlook factors that AGA's liquidity profile has weakened
due to the capex requirements of Tropicana and Kibali and the need to
ensure that they come on stream according to plan. However,
the rating agency expects AGA will take proactive steps with regard to
restoring its liquidity profile to its previous position following this
capex spend. In Moody's view, it will be important
for AGA to deliver these projects in a timely manner, both from
a EBITDA/cash flow generation perspective and lowering the cost profile
of its production portfolio, especially in light of the lower gold
price environment.
--INITIATIVES IN RESPONSE TO A LOWER GOLD PRICE ENVIRONMENT--
Despite today's downgrade, Moody's takes comfort from
a number of initiatives that AGA is currently, and will be undertaking
in response to the lower gold price environment, such as:
(1) orientating its operations to mine higher grades, thereby reducing
costs and enhancing cash flow generation; (2) reducing corporate
and capacity-building costs; (3) reducing exploration expenditures
and feasibility study costs; and (4) postponing non-anchor
growth projects. Moody's expect the impact of these measures
to filter through into credit metrics during 2014. However,
uncertainty remains regarding the execution of these initiatives and the
rating agency will continue to monitor whether the quantum and timing
of such measures will be sufficient to sustainably protect the company's
credit metrics such that they are commensurate with its Baa3 rating.
--Baa3 RATING--
AGA's Baa3 rating is supported by the company's position as
the third-largest gold producer globally, with a sizeable
reserve base. It also positively reflects the company's good
geographic diversity, having 21 operations in 10 different countries
and four separate continents. In addition, the rating is
supported by a management team that remains committed to a transparent
and conservative financial approach, which Moody's expects
will ensure that necessary measures will be taken to preserve liquidity
and reduce operating and capex costs should gold prices remain at today's
levels.
WHAT COULD STABILISE THE OUTLOOK
Moody's will consider stabilising the outlook on AGA's rating
if: (1) the wage negotiation process at its South African mining
operations is concluded in such a way the company's liquidity profile
and credit metrics remain commensurate with its Baa3 rating; (2)
the company takes proactive measures to strengthen its liquidity profile,
which would address concerns around potential covenant breaches that could
result from a protracted strike action at its mines; and (3) it successfully
brings the Tropicana and Kibali projects on stream within its envisaged
timeline and budget.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP/DOWN
Downward pressure on AGA's rating would likely arise due to heightened
operating risk in any of its operating assets that leads to a material
deterioration in operating performance. The rating would also come
under negative pressure if the company was unable to adjust its cost base
in light of lower gold prices such that: (1) total debt/EBITDA exceeds
3.25x; (2) cash flow from operations minus dividends/debt
falls below 20%; and (3) its liquidity profile weakens materially.
Given the negative outlook, upward pressure on AGA's rating
will remain limited in the short to medium term. However,
Moody's anticipates that AGA's total cash cost positioning
and credit metrics will improve once its key projects in Kibali and Tropicana
come on stream, both of which are expected to have total cash costs
lower than the company's current total cash cost of USD894/ounce
as of 31 March 2013. Longer term, upward rating pressure
could occur if AGA's: (1) debt/EBITDA is sustainably less
than 2.0x under Moody's forecast assumptions; (2) cash
flow from operations minus dividends/debt exceeds 30% on a sustainable
basis; (3) AGA is able to sustainably generate possitive free cash
flow; and (4) liquidity is robust.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was the Global Mining
Industry published in May 2009. Please see the Credit Policy page
on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
Headquartered in South Africa, AngloGold Ashanti Limited is a global
gold mining company operating out of 21 locations in Southern and Continental
Africa, North and South America, and Australia. With
production of 3.944 million ounces of gold and preliminary revenues
of USD6.1 billion for the 12 months ended 31 March 2013,
AGA ranks as the world's third-largest gold producer.
In South Africa (31% of production), AGA has six deep-level
operations and two surface operations, while most of its operations
in other countries are open pit. The company is listed on the New
York, Johannesburg, Ghanaian, London and Australian
stock exchanges.
The Local Market analyst for this rating is Dion Bate, 27.11.217.5472.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Gianmarco Migliavacca
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
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David Staples
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
Telephone: 00971 4237 9536
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Moody's downgrades AngloGold Ashanti to Baa3; negative outlook