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Rating Action:

Moody's downgrades Arch Capital's ratings following acquisition of United Guaranty; outlook is stable

05 Jan 2017

New York, January 05, 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the senior unsecured debt rating of Arch Capital Group Ltd. (Arch Capital) to Baa1 from A3 and the insurance financial strength (IFS) ratings of Arch Capital's principal P&C (re)insurance operating subsidiaries to A2 from A1. The outlook for these ratings is stable. In the same rating action, Moody's downgraded the IFS rating of Arch Mortgage Guaranty Company (AMG) to Baa1 from A3. The outlook for AMG is positive. These rating actions conclude reviews for downgrade that were initiated on 17 August 2016.

Moody's also affirmed the Baa1 IFS rating of Arch Mortgage Insurance Company (AMI) with the outlook changed to positive from stable. Moody's also took various rating actions on other Arch Capital subsidiaries, as listed below.

These rating actions follow the completion of Arch Capital's previously announced acquisition of United Guaranty Corporation (UGC -- not rated), a holding company for a leading US mortgage insurance group, from American International Group, Inc. (AIG -- senior Baa1/stable). Arch Capital purchased UGC for approximately $3.3 billion in cash and stock.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Ratings Rationale -- Arch Capital and its P&C Insurance and Reinsurance Subsidiaries

The downgrade of Arch Capital's ratings reflects Moody's view that the acquisition of UGC increases the group's credit risk profile due to the substantial expansion of Arch Capital's mortgage insurance operations and a significant increase in the holding company's financial leverage following the issuance of debt and preferred shares to finance a portion of the UGC acquisition. On a pro forma basis giving effect to the acquisition, Arch Capital's mortgage operations represent approximately 24% of the group's gross premiums written, up from around 8%. Moody's currently views the stand-alone credit profiles of leading US mortgage insurers to be in the Baa range due to the sector's historical deep cyclicality, its undifferentiated, commoditized product, and industry conditions that are largely tied to some of its main stakeholders (lenders and GSEs), public policy decisions, the performance of the housing sector, and other uncontrollable variables, including competition from the FHA.

Given the large amount of debt and preferred stock issued by Arch Capital in recent months to help finance the UGC acquisition, the firm's pro forma adjusted financial leverage has risen to around 25%, up from 19% at year-end 2015. While Moody's expects Arch Capital to gradually reduce its financial leverage through debt repayments and organic capital growth, the firm's leverage metrics are likely to remain elevated for several years.

Moody's notes that the combination of UGC and Arch's existing mortgage insurance operations will create the market share leader in the US private mortgage insurance market. The acquisition also provides some diversification benefit to Arch Capital as its traditional P&C reinsurance business faces challenging competitive dynamics. Current mortgage insurance conditions are, by contrast, quite sound, with strong mortgage insurance profitability, supported by high quality mortgage loan origination and benign housing market conditions. We expect Arch Capital's profitability to be positively impacted by its mortgage insurance operations over the near to medium term.

Ratings Rationale -- Arch Mortgage Insurance Company

Moody's affirmation of AMI's Baa1 IFS rating, with the outlook changed to positive from stable, reflects the improvement in its stand-alone credit profile following the UGC acquisition. UGC brings a well-established US mortgage insurance franchise with strong profitability to the Arch Capital group. Moody's has aligned the ratings of AMI and United Guaranty Residential Insurance Company (UGRIC -- IFS rating Baa1/positive) based on our expectation that these GSE eligible subsidiaries will comprise the core operations of Arch Capital's mortgage insurance business going forward.

Arch Capital's acquisition of UGC accelerates its efforts to achieve scale in the US mortgage insurance market. For the first nine months of 2016, UGC and Arch Capital had private MI market shares of about 18% and 9%, respectively. The combination of the two companies will result in a market leading mortgage insurance platform, with strong core earnings power and better financial flexibility than its peers. However, we expect the combined platform will lose some market share due to customer overlap with credit unions, community banks, and other lenders.

The positive outlook reflects Moody's expectation that the combination of UGC and AMI will improve the stand-alone credit profile of the new Arch mortgage insurance platform due to its leading market position, strong core earnings power and its robust underwriting and risk management capabilities.

AMI also benefits from implicit and explicit support from Arch Capital and Arch Reinsurance Ltd. (Arch Re Bermuda -- IFS rating A2/stable). Arch Re Bermuda provides reinsurance to AMI through a 50% quota-share reinsurance arrangement.

Ratings Rationale -- Arch Mortgage Guaranty Company

The downgrade of AMG's IFS rating to Baa1 from A3 (with a positive outlook) reflects Moody's view that following the acquisition, Arch's mortgage insurance operations should be viewed as a singular analytic unit. As such, AMG's rating was aligned with the ratings of AMI and UGRIC. While AMG benefits from extensive reinsurance support from Arch Re Bermuda and Arch Reinsurance Company (IFS rating A2/stable), the company has modest stand-alone capital resources, and, as a non-GSE focused mortgage insurer, narrower business prospects relative to its US mortgage insurance affiliates. The positive outlook reflects the alignment of AMG's rating with the ratings on AMI and UGRIC.

RATING DRIVERS

Rating Drivers - Arch Capital and its P&C Insurance and Reinsurance Subsidiaries

Given today's downgrade of Arch Capital's ratings, there is little possibility of an upgrade in the near term. However, reduced financial leverage and the maintenance of the firm's current modest catastrophe risk posture would positively influence the ratings. Conversely, the following factors could lead to a downgrade of Arch Capital's ratings: 1) returns on capital below the mid-single digits across multiple years; 2) consolidated adjusted financial leverage above 30%; 3) gross underwriting leverage in excess of 3x; or 4) a decline in shareholders' equity (including share repurchases) by more than 10% over a rolling twelve month period.

Rating Drivers -- Arch Mortgage Insurance Company

Continued improvement of AMI's stand-alone credit profile as evidenced by increased market share at attractive pricing levels, continued strong earnings and strong capital adequacy could result in an upgrade of AMI's rating. Conversely, the following factors could lead to a stabilization of the outlook or a downgrade of the rating: 1) downgrade of Arch Re Bermuda; 2) significant weakening of underwriting standards or pricing; 3) public policy decisions that significantly diminish the role of private mortgage insurance in the housing finance market; and 4) non-compliance with the GSE's capital standards (PMIERs). AMI's rating is expected to remain aligned with UGRIC's rating going forward.

Rating Drivers -- Arch Mortgage Guaranty Company

AMG's IFS rating is expected to remain closely linked to that of AMI going forward. Consequently, an upgrade or downgrade of AMI is likely to result in an upgrade or downgrade of AMG.

RATINGS LIST

The following ratings have been downgraded:

Arch Capital Group Ltd. -- senior unsecured debt to Baa1 from A3; preferred stock to Baa3(hyb) from Baa2(hyb); Pref. Stock Non-cumulative to Baa3 (hyb) from Baa2 (hyb);

Arch Capital Group (U.S.) Inc.-- BACKED senior unsecured debt to Baa1 from A3;

Arch Capital Finance LLC -- BACKED senior unsecured debt to Baa1 from A3;

Arch Reinsurance Ltd. -- insurance financial strength to A2 from A1;

Arch Insurance Company (Europe) Ltd. -- insurance financial strength to A2 from A1;

Arch Reinsurance Company -- insurance financial strength to A2 from A1;

Arch Insurance Company -- insurance financial strength to A2 from A1;

Arch Specialty Insurance Company -- insurance financial strength to A2 from A1;

Arch Excess and Surplus Insurance Company -- insurance financial strength to A2 from A1;

Arch Mortgage Guaranty Company -- insurance financial strength to Baa1 from A3.

The following rating has been affirmed:

Arch Mortgage Insurance Company -- insurance financial strength at Baa1.

Outlook Actions:

..Issuer: Arch Capital Group Ltd.

....Outlook, Changed to Stable from Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Arch Capital Group (U.S.) Inc.

.Outlook, Changed to Stable from Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Arch Capital Finance LLC

.Outlook, Changed to Stable from Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Arch Reinsurance Ltd.

.Outlook, Changed to Stable from Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Arch Insurance Company (Europe) Ltd.

.Outlook, Changed to Stable from Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Arch Reinsurance Company

.Outlook, Changed to Stable from Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Arch Insurance Company

.Outlook, Changed to Stable from Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Arch Specialty Insurance Company

.Outlook, Changed to Stable from Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Arch Excess and Surplus Insurance Company

.Outlook, Changed to Stable from Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Arch Mortgage Guaranty Company

.Outlook, Changed to Positive from Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Arch Mortgage Insurance Company

.Outlook, Changed to Positive from Stable

Arch Capital Group Ltd., through its subsidiaries, writes insurance and reinsurance on a worldwide basis through operations in Bermuda, the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia and South Africa, with a focus on specialty lines. The company has three operating platforms: insurance, reinsurance and mortgage. Through the first nine months of 2016, Arch reported $3.2 billion of net premiums written and $602 million of net income available to common shareholders. As of 30 September 2016, total shareholders' equity was approximately $8.2 billion.

The principal methodology used in rating Arch Capital Group Ltd., Arch Reinsurance Ltd., Arch Insurance Company (Europe) Ltd., Arch Reinsurance Company, Arch Insurance Company, Arch Specialty Insurance Company, Arch Excess and Surplus Insurance Company, Arch Capital Group (U.S.) Inc. and Arch Capital Finance LLC was Global Reinsurers published in April 2016. The principal methodology used in rating Arch Mortgage Guaranty Company and Arch Mortgage Insurance Company was Mortgage Insurers published in April 2016. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for copies of these methodologies.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

James Eck
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Marc R. Pinto, CFA
MD - Financial Institutions
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
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U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

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