New York, February 02, 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service downgraded the ratings of Arch Coal, Inc.
(Arch), including the Corporate Family Rating (CFR) to Caa1 from
B3, probability of default rating (PDR) to Caa1-PD from B3-PD,
senior unsecured ratings to Caa2 from Caa1, rating on second lien
notes to Caa1 from B3, and the senior secured credit facility rating
to B2 from B1. At the same time, Moody's lowered the Speculative
Grade Liquidity (SGL) rating to SGL-3 from SGL-2.
The outlook is negative.
Downgrades:
..Issuer: Arch Coal, Inc.
.... Probability of Default Rating,
Downgraded to Caa1-PD from B3-PD
.... Speculative Grade Liquidity Rating,
Lowered to SGL-3 from SGL-2
.... Corporate Family Rating (Local Currency),
Downgraded to Caa1 from B3
....Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility (Local
Currency), Downgraded to B2 from B1
....Senior Secured Regular Bond/Debenture
(Local Currency), Downgraded to Caa1 from B3
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture
(Local Currency), Downgraded to Caa2 from Caa1
Outlook Actions:
..Issuer: Arch Coal, Inc.
....Outlook, Remains Negative
RATINGS RATIONALE
The downgrade reflects the weak debt protection metrics and high leverage
(23x as measured by the debt/EBITDA ratio for the twelve months through
September 30, 2014), which we expect to continue to deteriorate
given weak metallurgical coal market conditions. We believe that
metallurgical coal prices are unlikely to recover within the next eighteen
months to a level that would contribute to a meaningful turnaround in
performance. Consequently, leverage is anticipated to become
more elevated and further strain the capital structure.
At the same time, the thermal coal business is challenged by weak
natural gas prices and the implementation of Federal Mercury and Air Toxic
Standards (MATS) during the next 12 months. Henry Hub natural gas
prices were below $3.00 per million British thermal units
(MMBtu) as recently as January and, absent a rapid recovery,
will likely drive some coal-to-gas switching in the next
several months.
The change to a SGL-3 rating reflects expectations for the company
to continue to be cash consumptive. As of September 30, 2014,
Arch's liquidity position predominantly consisted of just over $1
billion in cash and short-term investments. The company
has no meaningful maturities of debt until 2018, and they have suspended
or eliminated most financial maintenance covenants that pertain only to
their $250 million revolver until June of 2015, when a relaxed,
senior secured leverage ratio covenant becomes effective. Until
then, only a minimum liquidity covenant of $550 million remains
in place. The revolver expires in June 2016.
Arch's Caa1 CFR reflects its geographic and operating diversity,
low level of legacy liabilities, extensive high quality and low-cost
reserves, and access to multiple transportation options.
Factors that constrain the rating also include cost inflation, regulatory
pressures on coal and the inherent geological and operating risk associated
with mining.
The negative outlook reflects our expectation that market conditions,
particularly for met coal, will remain depressed into 2016 and that
Arch's performance will continue to be pressured by the weak fundamentals.
While the potential for an upgrade is limited at this time, the
ratings or outlook could be favorably impacted should metallurgical and/or
thermal coal prices recover, such that the company's leverage,
as adjusted, is expected to approach 6x and free cash flow is expected
to approach break even.
A downgrade would result should liquidity continue to deteriorate.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Global Mining Industry
published in August 2014. Other methodologies used include Loss
Given Default for Speculative-Grade Non-Financial Companies
in the U.S., Canada and EMEA published in June 2009.
Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for
a copy of these methodologies.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Anna Zubets-Anderson
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Brian B Oak
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's downgrades Arch to Caa1 from B3; outlook negative