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Rating Action:

Moody's downgrades Banca delle Marche to B3 from Ba1; outlook negative

25 Jan 2013

Standalone BFSR downgraded to E/caa3 from D/ba2

Milan, January 25, 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded Banca delle Marche S.p.A.'s (Bd Marche) Ba1 long-term senior debt and deposit ratings to B3 and the standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR) to E, equivalent to a caa3 standalone credit assessment, from D/ba2. The outlook on the long-term debt and deposit ratings is negative and the outlook on the BFSR is stable.

The downgrade of Bd Marche's standalone BFSR reflects Moody's view that the bank's asset-quality and internal capital generation capacity are weak and under significant pressure, thus resulting in weak capitalisation. In addition, the rating action reflects the high reliance on European Central Bank (ECB) funding. In these circumstances, the rating agency believes that there is a high likelihood that the bank might need external support. The downgrade of the long-term deposit and senior debt ratings was prompted by the downgrade of the BFSR; the long-term ratings incorporate Moody's assessment of a high probability of systemic support. The rating agency however noted that given Bd Marche's low standalone rating, this results in three notches of uplift for the long-term senior debt and deposit ratings.

These rating actions conclude Moody's review of Bd Marche's ratings, initiated on 16 November 2012.

RATINGS RATIONALE

--- STANDALONE CREDIT PROFILE

The downgrade of the bank's standalone BFSR to E/caa3 reflects Moody's view of a high likelihood that the bank may need external support in order to curb deterioration in the bank's credit profile. Given the current challenging operating environment, asset quality metrics have weakened significantly and are well below the Italian average. In particular, the bank's coverage of single problem-loan categories has been decreasing in the past years. Problem loans as a percentage of equity, plus loan-loss provisions stood at 141% in June 2012, against a stronger 52% for the system (at year-end 2011). Coverage of sofferenze -- non-performing loans -- stood at 28% at June 2012, down from 39% in 2007, and the bank retains high loan concentrations and exposure to the real-estate sector.

Following a management change in Q3 2012, the bank publically announced an operating loss for 2012. We expect the bank to increase coverage of problem loans and apply stricter problem loan-classification than in previous years. Consequently, Moody's expects that the bank's Tier 1 capital ratio will decrease from the current modest level of 8.36% at June 2012. This is insufficient to cushion against further asset-quality deterioration under the rating agency's adverse scenario. Furthermore, the bank raised capital less than 12 months ago, mainly from its main shareholders and retail clients; in Moody's view, it could be difficult for Bd Marche to again request significant amounts of capital from these same sources.

In addition, Bd Marche's internal core capital generation capacity is very weak, and expected to deteriorate further. For H1 2012, Bd Marche reported a consolidated profit of EUR43 million and for year-end 2012 a loss is expected, as loan-loss provisions are expected to exceed significantly pre-provision income.

The bank is mainly retail funded at about 60%; most of its other funds currently come from the ECB. Moody's believes that there is a risk that market access will continue to be restricted and costly for an extended period. As a result, an additional negative rating driver is the uncertainty regarding when the bank will again be able to fund itself regularly, and on an economic basis, in the markets.

The assessment of these pressure points has led Moody's to downgrade of the bank's standalone BFSR to E/caa3 reflecting Moody's view of an increased likelihood that the bank may need outside support.

--- LONG-TERM DEPOSIT AND SENIOR DEBT RATINGS

The downgrade of Bd Marche's senior debt and deposit ratings to B3 follows the downgrade of the standalone credit assessment and incorporates Moody's expectation of a high likelihood of systemic support.

At the revised standalone credit assessment level of caa3, high likelihood of systemic support results in three notches of uplift for the bank's long-term senior debt and deposit ratings.

WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN

Upward pressure could be exerted on the bank's standalone rating as a result of a significant strengthening of capital adequacy, profitability and asset quality, which Moody's however considers unlikely without external support. An upgrade of the standalone credit assessment could put upward pressure on the deposit and debt ratings.

Downward rating pressure on the bank's standalone credit assessment would primarily stem from a significant further asset-quality deterioration, which according to Moody's would make external support all but inevitable.

LIST OF AFFECTED CREDIT RATINGS

Long-Term Bank Deposits to B3 from Ba1

Bank Financial Strength to E from D

Baseline Credit Assessment to caa3 from ba2

Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment to caa3 from ba2

Senior Unsecured -Dom Curr to B3 from Ba1

Senior Unsecured MTN --Dom Curr to (P)B3 from (P)Ba1

Subordinate -Dom Curr to Ca from Ba3

Subordinate MTN -Dom Curr to P(Ca) from (P)Ba3

Jr Subordinate MTN -Dom Curr to P(C) from (P)B1

Tier III MTN - Dom Curr to (P)Ca from (P)Ba3

METHODOLOGY USED

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Moody's Consolidated Global Bank Rating Methodology published in June 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Bd Marche is headquartered in Jesi, Italy. At June 2012 it had total assets of EUR24 billion.

1) Unless noted otherwise, data in this report is sourced from company reports and Moody's Financial Metrics.

2) Problem loans include: non-performing loans (sofferenze), watchlist (incagli - including only an estimated portion of those over 90 days overdue), restructured (ristrutturati) and past due loans (scaduti).

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Simone Zampa
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Italia S.r.l
Corso di Porta Romana 68
Milan 20122
Italy
Telephone:+39-02-9148-1100

Johannes Wassenberg
MD - Banking
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Italia S.r.l
Corso di Porta Romana 68
Milan 20122
Italy
Telephone:+39-02-9148-1100

Moody's downgrades Banca delle Marche to B3 from Ba1; outlook negative
No Related Data.
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