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I AGREE
01 Mar 2011
EUR 200 million of debt securities affected
London, 01 March 2011 -- Moody's Investors Service announced today the following rating action
on notes issued by Corsair Finance (Ireland) No. 2 Limited,
a collateralized debt obligation transaction referencing a static portfolio
of corporate entities (the "Corporate Synthetic Obligation" or "CSO"):
Issuer: Corsair Finance (Ireland) No. 2 Limited
....EUR200M Series 13 Floating Rate Secured
Portfolio Credit -Linked Notes, Downgraded to Ba2 (sf);
previously on Jul 22, 2010 Downgraded to Baa1 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
Moody's explained that the rating action taken today is the result of
the deterioration of the credit quality of the reference portfolio.
The transaction is exposed to Anglo Irish Bank Corporation Plc which has
suffered a credit event since the last rating action in July 2010.
The 10 year weighted average rating factor of the portfolio, adjusted
with forward looking measures and based on senior unsecured debt ratings,
has deteriorated from 114 to 234, equivalent to an average rating
of the current portfolio of Baa1. In downgrading the rating of
the tranche, Moody's has taken into account that the reference portfolio
is 100% exposed to the Banking and Finance industry sectors.
Furthermore 95% of the reference portfolio is exposed to subordinated
debt including Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Banks p.l.c.,
of which subordinated debt of both are currently rated Ca. Approximately
28% of the reference portfolio is exposed to entities in Greece,
Ireland, Portugal and Spain, countries of which some have
experienced multi notch downgrades since the last rating action.
The transaction has 4.83 years to maturity.
Because of the high concentration of subordinated debt in the reference
portfolio, in its base case Moody's used subordinated debt
ratings as inputs in the CDOROM.
Moody's also performed sensitivity analysis consisting in modeling Moody's
market implied rating in place of the corporate fundamental rating to
derive the default probability of each corporate name in the reference
portfolio. Moody's market implied ratings are derived from observable
CDS spread on each corporate name and mapped to Moody's rating scale.
The gap between a Market implied rating and a Moody's corporate fundamental
rating is an indicator of the extent of the divergence of credit view
between Moody's and the market on each referenced name in the CSO portfolio.
This run generated a result that was 7 notches lower than the one modeled
under the base case run.
In addition to the quantitative factors that are explicitly modeled,
qualitative factors are part of rating committee considerations.
These qualitative factors include the structural protections in each transaction,
the recent deal performance in the current market environment, the
legal environment, and specific documentation features. All
information available to rating committees, including macroeconomic
forecasts, input from other Moody's analytical groups, market
factors, and judgments regarding the nature and severity of credit
stress on the transactions, may influence the final rating decision.
The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Approach to
Rating Corporate Synthetic Obligations" rating methodology published in
September 2009.
Moody's analysis for this transaction is based on the CDOROMTM.
This model is available on moodys.com under Products and Solutions
-- Analytical models, upon return of a signed free
license agreement.
Moody's Investors Service did not receive or take into account a third
party due diligence report on the underlying assets or financial instruments
related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past 6 months.
Due to the impact of revised and updated key assumptions referenced in
"Moody's Approach to Rating Corporate Synthetic Obligations", key
model inputs used by Moody's in its analysis may be different from the
manager/arranger's reported numbers. In particular, rating
assumptions for all publicly rated corporate credits in the underlying
portfolio have been adjusted for "Review for Possible Downgrade",
"Review for Possible Upgrade", or "Negative Outlook".
Moodys did not run a separate loss and cash flow analysis other than the
one already done using the CDOROM model. For a description of the
analysis, refer to the methodology and the CDOROM user guide on
Moodys website.
Moody's analysis of corporate CSOs is subject to uncertainties,
the primary sources of which includes complexity, governance and
leverage. Although the CDOROM model capture many of the dynamics
of the Corporate CSO structure, it remains a simplification of the
complex reality. Of greatest concern are (a) variations over time
in default rates for instruments with a given rating, (b) variations
in recovery rates for instruments with particular seniority/security characteristics
and (c) uncertainty about the default and recovery correlations characteristics
of the reference pool. Similarly on the legal/structural side,
the legal analysis although typically based in part on opinions (and sometimes
interpretations) of legal experts at the time of issuance, is still
subject to potential changes in law, case law and the interpretations
of courts and (in some cases) regulatory authorities. Although
the impact of these decisions is mitigated by structural constraints,
anticipating the quality of these decisions necessarily introduces some
level of uncertainty in our assumptions. Given the tranched nature
of Corporate CSO liabilities, rating transitions in the reference
pool may have leveraged rating implications for the ratings of the Corporate
CSO liabilities, thus leading to a high degree of volatility.
All else being equal, the volatility is likely to be higher for
more junior or thinner liabilities. The base case scenario modeled
fits into the central macroeconomic scenario predicted by Moody's of a
sluggish recovery scenario of the corporate universe. Should macroeconomics
conditions evolves towards a more severe scenario such as a double dip
recession, the CSO rating will likely be downgraded to an extent
depending on the expected severity of the worsening conditions.
In addition, Moody's publishes a weekly summary of structured finance
credit, ratings and methodologies, available to all registered
users of our website, at www.moodys.com/SFQuickCheck
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The rating has been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agents
and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.
Information sources used to prepare the credit rating are the following:
parties involved in the ratings and public information.
Moody's Investors Service considers the quality of information available
on the issuer or obligation satisfactory for the purposes of maintaining
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Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible
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three years preceding the Credit Rating Action. Please see the
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Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses
in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources
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independent third-party sources. However, Moody's
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validate information received in the rating process.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on Moodys.com
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The date on which some Credit Ratings were first released goes back to
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of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
New York
Jian Hu
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
London
Branimir Jovanovic
Associate Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's downgrades CSO notes of Corsair Finance (Ireland) No. 2 Limited
No Related Data.
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