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Rating Action:

Moody's downgrades Delhi Airport's ratings to Ba3; places ratings on review for further downgrade

25 Mar 2020

Singapore, March 25, 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded Delhi International Airport Limited's (DIAL) corporate family rating (CFR) and senior secured ratings to Ba3 from Ba2.

At the same time, Moody's has downgraded DIAL's Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) to ba3 from ba2.

The ratings have also been placed on review for further downgrade. The outlook has been changed to rating under review from stable.

The rating action reflects the worsening coronavirus outbreak and the increasingly stringent travel restrictions imposed both in India and globally, including ongoing measures introduced by the Government of India (Baa2 negative) .

RATINGS RATIONALE

"The downgrade to Ba3 reflects our expectation of a sharp decline in passenger and aircraft traffic at Delhi Airport in the coming months and the uncertainty over the timing and extent of a recovery, which coincides with increased debt issuance as the airport enters the peak stage of its INR98 billion expansion project," says Spencer Ng, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst.

The confluence of these factors will severely weaken Delhi Airport's credit metrics, under Moody's base case scenario of DIAL continuing to levy the minimum tariff permitted under the Base Airport Charge regime over the control period through to March 2024, with no ability to recoup lost revenue through tariff adjustments.

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak, deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit effects of these developments are unprecedented. The airport sector has been one of the sectors most significantly affected by the shock given its sensitivity to consumer demand and sentiment.

More specifically, the weaknesses in DIAL's credit profile, including its exposure to falling passenger traffic have left it vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment in these unprecedented operating conditions, and DIAL remains vulnerable to the outbreak continuing to spread.

Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health and safety. Today's action reflects the impact on DIAL of the breadth and severity of the shock, and the broad deterioration in credit quality it has triggered.

All of DIAL's aeronautical revenues and a large portion of its non-aeronautical revenues are closely linked to the airport's passenger traffic volumes and aircraft movements. As such, the expected traffic decline will lead to a sharp reduction in the airport's revenue and cash flow over the course of fiscal 2021 (ending 31 March).

Whilst the current environment is unpredictable, Moody's expects a recovery in airport traffic to commence in the second half of the year. Nevertheless, Moody's expects that the airport's traffic levels for the next two to three years will be lower as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, which will reduce DIAL's available cashflow for its INR98 billion expansion project and increase its reliance on debt funding.

"Given DIAL's financial profile was already weakly positioned prior to the outbreak, the reduced cashflow and increased debt over the next two to three years will keep its longer term credit metrics at a level that is more consistent with a Ba3 rating," adds Ng.

The vast majority of DIAL's expansion works are being carried out under a single contract with a fixed construction term and prices with Larsen & Toubro, one of the largest contractors in India. Whilst such a structure reduces the risk of costs overrunning or potential delays, it also limits the airport's ability to defer or scale down the project to preserve liquidity and could expose the airport to counterparty risk should the contractor's credit quality materially deteriorate.

That said, Delhi Airport does have sufficient liquidity on hand, which mainly comprises cash and investment in short term securities, to continue funding its expansion through to the end of calendar 2020. Delhi Airport's liquidity position would strengthen further upon finalization of its land monetization transaction with Bharti Reality, which management expects to conclude in the coming months upon receiving approval from the Airports Authority of India.

The ratings review will consider (1) the airport's financial profile over the next two to three years as the coronavirus situation evolves, (2) the airport's liquidity position over the next 12 to 18 months, (3) any increase in DIAL's exposure to counterparty risk from key airlines as a result of the outbreak, (4) any potential improvements in the airport's financial profile due to a better-than-expected tariff determination for the current control period and (5) DIAL's countermeasures should the construction contractor experience distress.

DIAL's Ba3 ratings continue to reflect the airport's strong market position and the fact that it predominantly caters to domestic travel.

Given that the ratings are placed on review for downgrade, Moody's currently does not envision any upward rating pressure. The ratings could be confirmed if there is clear evidence that the impact from the outbreak is easing and the airport is able to maintain FFO to debt in the low single digit percentage region on a sustained basis post-outbreak.

On the other hand, Moody's could further downgrade DIAL's Ba3 ratings if the traffic decline in the coming months exceeds Moody's base case assumptions, or if there is any evidence of liquidity stress, which could manifest from a worsening counterparty exposure.

Moody's could also downgrade the ratings if: (1) the expansion project's costs increase or it experiences delays; or (2) material delays in finalizing the existing transaction with Bharti Realty or in securing further land monetization transactions.

Moody's has used its Joint Default Analysis approach for Government Related Issuers in assessing DIAL's ratings, because the company is more than 20% government-owned through the Airports Authority of India, a government agency.

DIAL's Ba3 CFR combines: (1) the company's Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) of ba3; and (2) the low likelihood of support that Moody's believes the Government of India (Baa2 negative) will provide to DIAL in the event that extraordinary financial support is required. This assumption of support results in the absence of uplift to the company's BCA.

The methodologies used in these ratings were Privately Managed Airports and Related Issuers published in September 2017, and Government-Related Issuers Methodology published in February 2020. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

Delhi International Airport Limited (DIAL) is the concessionaire for the Indira Gandhi International Airport, which is located in the political capital of India, and operates under an Operations, Management and Development Agreement, concluded in 2006 with the Airports Authority of India, a government agency. The concession is for a 30-year period, and DIAL has the option to extend it for another 30 years, subject to the company meeting defined performance criteria.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Spencer Ng
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Project & Infrastructure Finance
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Terry Fanous
MD-Public Proj & Infstr Fin
Project & Infrastructure Finance
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

No Related Data.
© 2021 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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​

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