Toronto, January 04, 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service, (Moody's) downgraded Husky
Energy Inc.'s (Husky) senior unsecured rating to Baa3 from
Baa2. The outlook was changed to negative from rating under review.
This concludes the review that was initiated on October 26, 2020.
Downgrades:
..Issuer: Husky Energy Inc.
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture,
Downgraded to Baa3 from Baa2
Outlook Actions:
..Issuer: Husky Energy Inc.
....Outlook, Changed To Negative From
Rating Under Review
RATINGS RATIONALE
Husky is now a wholly-owned subsidiary of Cenovus Energy Inc.
(Cenovus). Cenovus will become the obligor under Husky's
existing senior unsecured notes upon the completion of a planned amalgamation
among the two entities. Moody's expects the amalgamation
will be completed and the Husky debt will be pari passu with the Cenovus
debt.
Cenovus (Baa3) benefits from: 1) an integrated business model that
reduces cash flow volatility; 2) conservative financial policies
of management and the board, demonstrated by the rapid reduction
of dividends and capex during oil price shocks; 3) a sizable,
long-lived, low decline, and low cost production and
reserve base; 4) an ability to generate free cash flow at low oil
prices which we expect will be directed towards improving leverage;
and 5) well-priced contracts for offshore China natural gas production
that provide significant and stable cash flow. Cenovus is challenged
by: 1) a concentrated asset base in western Canada, with modest
diversification in Atlantic Canada and Asia; 2) weak credit metrics
through 2020 and 2021; and 3) low margins and low returns for the
Deep Basin assets, and 4) the Sunrise project that reduces operational
efficiencies.
Cenovus has excellent liquidity. At September 30, 2020 and
pro forma for the merger with Husky, Cenovus had about C$1.4
billion of cash and full availability under its C$8.5 billion
revolving credit facilities. Cenovus will generate minimal free
cash flow through 2021. Cenovus will be well in compliance with
its sole financial covenant through this period. There are no debt
maturities in 2021 but about C$1.3 billion of maturities
in 2022.
The negative outlook reflects the uncertainty around the successful integration
of the combined assets and the pace of deleveraging through 2022.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
The ratings could be upgraded if retained cash flow to debt appears likely
to be sustainable above 40% and Cenovus successfully integrates
the Husky assets.
The ratings could be downgraded if retained cash flow to debt is likely
to be sustained below 25%, possibly due to integration challenges.
Husky Energy Inc. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Cenovus
Energy Inc. Cenovus is a Calgary, Alberta-based exploration
and production company with interests in downstream refinery assets.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Independent Exploration
and Production Industry published in May 2017 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1056808.
Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com
for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and
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Paresh Chari
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Canada Inc.
70 York Street
Suite 1400
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Donald S. Carter, CFA
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
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