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Rating Action:

Moody's downgrades Irish RMBS structured finance transactions

21 Jul 2011

Approximately EUR 27.7 billion of debt securities affected

London, 21 July 2011 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the ratings of 30 tranches of 14 Irish residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions. All affected ratings appear at the end of the press release.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Today's rating action reflects: 1) the decline in the credit quality of the Irish government's sovereign debt as indicated in Moody's downgrade of the rating of its debt to Ba1 from Baa3 of on 12 July 2011; 2) the failure by relevant counterparties to either comply with trigger breaches or to implement in a timely fashion proposed structural changes to mitigate the risk of disruption in the performance of major transaction parties and 3) the increased likelihood of severe events, which means that Moody's expects that Irish RMBS transactions will no longer retain or achieve a rating higher than A1(sf), which is six notches above the government's rating.

- HIGHEST RATING FOR MOST IRISH RMBS TRANSACTIONS IS A1(sf)

Moody's revision to A1(sf) of the maximum achievable rating for Irish RMBS transactions from its prior level of Aa2(sf), reflects the continued weakness in the Irish economy and the challenges the government is facing in implementing its fiscal consolidation plan. In particular, there is a growing possibility that Ireland will need further official financing before being able to access the market. The maximum rating achievable for Irish structured finance transactions reflects the rating level beyond which structural features or credit enhancement cannot fully mitigate the impact of highly severe events and the level of uncertainty around them in the context of the extreme weakening of sovereign financial strength. The consequences of these events, include possible changes in the terms or enforcement of certain debt contracts that could overwhelm the benefits of credit enhancement and structural mitigants. Moody's explained the relationship between sovereign ratings and structured finance ratings in a special report, "Assessing the Impact of the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis on Structured Finance Transactions", published in April 2011.

Moody's has therefore downgraded to A1(sf) 20 tranches in 9 transactions that it had rated above this maximum achievable rating. These tranches include senior notes in 6 Celtic transactions (Celtic 11,12,13,14, 15 and 16) and senior notes in 3 Phoenix transactions (Phoenix 2,3 and 4).

- INCREASED COLLATERAL RISK

The risk of Irish mortgages has been steadily increasing and will continue to do so. Delinquency rates have increased systematically over the past year and 90-plus arrears in Irish Prime RMBS rose to 7.6% in April 2011 from 4.6% in April 2010. Redemption rates declined to 3.6% in April 2011 from 4.7% in April 2010 while realised losses are still very low because of legal and regulatory disincentives to foreclosure on properties. Last March 2011, Moody's increased lifetime loss assumptions for all Irish RMBS transactions in consideration of rapidly deteriorating asset performance (please refer to the press release "Moody's downgrades ratings in 17 Irish Prime RMBS", published on 10 March 2011). The extent of ongoing deterioration will determine if further increases in lifetime loss assumptions are appropriate.

As a result of the increasing risk of Irish mortgages in light of the weakening Irish economy and the declining credit quality of the Irish sovereign debt , the credit enhancement for some transactions is not sufficient to withstand the higher risk of severe events.

Moody's has concluded that the credit enhancement of class A notes in Celtic 9 (11.6%) is not commensurate with the current rating of this note in consideration of the greater sovereign risk and the performance of this transaction to date. Therefore, Moody's has downgraded to Baa1(sf) from A3(sf) the senior notes issued by Celtic 9.

RMBS senior tranches may retain A1(sf) only if they benefit from high credit enhancement, ranging from 20% to 25%, and have low performance disruption risk, as described below.

- INCREASING RISK OF PERFORMANCE DISRUPTION AND COMMINGLING RISK

In line with rating guidance entitled "Global Structured Finance Operational Risk Guidelines: Moody's Approach to Analyzing Performance Disruption Risk", published in March 2011, Moody's has taken rating actions to reflect the adverse impact of the potential deterioration of credit quality of transaction parties in Irish RMBS.

The deterioration of the credit quality of Irish banks led to many of the rating actions on Irish RMBS. Servicers of most Irish RMBS are Irish banks, the rating of many of which had fallen to non-investment grade in March. The transactions' calculation agents and cash managers are either Irish banks or other European or American banks. In assessing the impact of the potential deterioration of transaction parties, Moody's addresses the credit quality of the parties together with mitigants of their risk, including the amount of liquidity and back-up servicing arrangements.

The finalization of many of the rating actions on RMBS depends on proposals to strengthen the mitigants. In March 2011 Moody's had downgraded 50 tranches in 17 prime Irish RMBS and maintained on review for downgrade the ratings of 16 tranches in nine transactions pending the implementation of a variety of proposals put forward by transaction sponsors to address performance disruption risk. Thus far, Moody' has received final drafts and definitive timelines for implementation for the following transactions: Emerald 5, Fastnet 3, Fastnet 5, Fastnet 6 and Fastnet 7. Moody's maintains on review the senior ratings in these transactions and expects to conclude the review within the next month. Moody's has downgraded the senior notes in the remaining 4 transactions because Moody's has not received any short term implementation plan so far as discussed in detail further below.

The adequacy of the mitigants depends on the amount of liquidity as well as back-up arrangements. For transactions that have adequate liquidity and have servicers rated Baa3 or above, the senior notes can retain A1(sf) ratings, subject to minimum credit enhancement tests described above. Transactions serviced by Irish banks that have non-investment grade ratings but benefit from certain features can retain ratings of A1(sf), again subject to credit enhancement tests. These features include having a back up servicer in place, independent cash managers, sufficient liquidity, and so-called "estimates" language in the transaction documents, which would allow continuity of note payment if the servicer fails to produce a servicing report. In the case of transactions without sufficient mitigants to payment disruption risk and with a servicer rated below investment grade, the highest senior debt ratings would be Baa1(sf) and below because of Moody's conclusion that the risk of performance disruption is not consistent with single-A ratings. Today's rating action also takes into account increased commingling risk in transactions with a non-prime issuer account bank.

Emerald Mortgages No. 5 Limited

Moody's maintains the senior notes of this transaction on review because an appointment of a backup servicer is in process. In February 2011, EBS Ltd("EBS", Ba2/NP) restructured Emerald to mitigate the performance disruption risk in the transaction. The Issuer had appointed Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch(Aa3/(P)P-1), as back-up cash manager and Ulster Bank Ireland Limited (A2 / P-1, both on review for downgrade) as issuer account bank. Moody's placed on review for downgrade the senior notes, pending the appointment of a back-up servicer at that time. EBS has notified Moody's that the appointment process is due to be completed in August.

Fastnet Transactions (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8)

The progress in addressing performance disruption risk varies across these transactions. Irish Life & Permanent plc ("IL&P", Ba2/NP) acts in various roles in these transactions and is the key transaction party that presents performance disruption risk. Moody's has received proposals to restructure some of the transactions.

In Fastnet 3 and Fastnet 6, progress is happening quickly, and Moody's maintains on review the ratings of the senior notes pending finalization of a back-up servicing arrangement. The issuer account bank is BNP Paribas Securities Service, London Branch ("BNPSL", Aa2 on review for downgrade/P-1), guaranteed by BNP Paribas ("BNP", Aa2 on review for downgrade/P-1). BNPSL is also the back-up cash manager and BNP is the back-up servicer facilitator. There is enough liquidity in the transactions, and cash manager is able to make payments independently from the receipt of servicer reports during a servicing disruption. In February 2011, Moody's assigned A1(sf) ratings, under review for possible downgrade to Fastnet 3 and Fastnet 6, pending the appointment of a back-up servicer. Moody's has been notified that a back-up servicer has been found and that the parties will sign final documents within the next few weeks.

In Fastnet 5 and Fastnet 7, mitigants will soon be in place, and Moody's therefore maintains on review the rating of the senior notes pending finalization of the mitigation plans. IL&P still acts as the issuer account bank and mortgage administrator.Moody' has received draft documents with regards to the introduction of servicer report estimation language, the appointment of a third-party issuer account bank, back-up servicer, bank-up servicer facilitator and back-up cash manager. The Issuers' agent has notified Moody's that the parties will sign final documents within the next month.

Fastnet 2 and Fastnet 4 have not yet succeeded in putting mitigants into place, and Moody's has downgraded to Baa2(sf) the senior notes of both transactions. There is no back-up servicer, back-up servicer facilitator or back-up cash manager in these transactions. The restructure proposals do not include the introduction of servicer report estimation language and the appointment of a back-up servicer facilitator. In addition, Moody's has not received a definitive timeline for the implementation of the amendments. The high linkage in these transactions to IL&P has therefore prompted Moody's downgrade.

In Fastnet 8, Moody's is concerned about payment continuity in case of servicer disruption and has therefore downgraded to Baa1(sf) the notes issued by Fastnet 8. The issuer account bank is BNP Paribas ("BNP", Aa2 on review for downgrade/P-1). The trustee will appoint a back-up servicer, but there will be no back-up cash manager or back-up servicer facilitator. The cash management agreement does not contemplate estimation language.

Kildare Securities Limited

Moody's is concerned about the linkage with ICS in this transaction increasing both operational risk and credit commingling exposure. Moody's has therefore downgraded the notes issued by Kildare Securities Limited to Baa1(sf). ICS Building Society ("ICS", Ba1/NP) acts as the issuer account bank, GIC account bank and servicer. There is no back-up servicer, back-up servicer facilitator or back-up cash manager in the transaction. Although the trustee has notified Moody's that it will move the GIC account to a third party, the issuer account will remain with ICS.

RATING METHODOLOGIES

The determination of the highest achievable ratings and minimum credit enhancement requirements described above complement the applicable principal methodologies for each asset class.

The principal methodology used in this rating was Moody's Approach to Rating RMBS in Europe, Middle East, and Africa, published in October 2009. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

The rating has been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agents and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.

Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past six months.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.

LIST OF RATING ACTIONS:

Issuer: Celtic Residential Irish Mortgage Securitisation No.9 Plc

....EUR1067.5M A2 Certificate, Downgraded to Baa1; previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to A3

Issuer: CELTIC RESIDENTIAL IRISH MORTGAGE SECURISATION NO. 11 PLC

....EUR385M A2a Certificate, Downgraded to A1; previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to Aa1

....US$328M A2b Certificate, Downgraded to A1; previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to Aa1

Issuer: Celtic Residential Irish Mortgage Securitisation No.12 Ltd.

....EUR487.5M A2 Notes, Downgraded to A1; previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to Aa2

Issuer: Celtic Residential Irish Mtge Sec No. 13 Ltd

....EUR538.95M A2 Certificate, Downgraded to A1; previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to Aa2

Issuer: CELTIC RESIDENTIAL IRISH MORTGAGE SECURITISATION NO. 14

....EUR1000M A1 Certificate, Downgraded to A1; previously on Feb 16, 2011 Assigned Aa2

....EUR1000M A2 Certificate, Downgraded to A1; previously on Feb 16, 2011 Assigned Aa2

....EUR1000M A3 Certificate, Downgraded to A1; previously on Feb 16, 2011 Assigned Aa2

....EUR1000M A4 Certificate, Downgraded to A1; previously on Feb 16, 2011 Assigned Aa2

....EUR763.15M A5 Certificate, Downgraded to A1; previously on Feb 16, 2011 Assigned Aa2

Issuer: CELTIC RESIDENTIAL IRISH MORTGAGE SECURITISATION NO. 15

....EUR700M A1 Certificate, Downgraded to A1; previously on Feb 16, 2011 Assigned Aa2

....EUR700M A2 Certificate, Downgraded to A1; previously on Feb 16, 2011 Assigned Aa2

....EUR700M A3 Certificate, Downgraded to A1; previously on Feb 16, 2011 Assigned Aa2

....EUR700M A4 Certificate, Downgraded to A1; previously on Feb 16, 2011 Assigned Aa2

....EUR547.05M A5 Certificate, Downgraded to A1; previously on Feb 16, 2011 Assigned Aa2

Issuer: CELTIC RESIDENTIAL IRISH MORTGAGE SECURITISATION NO. 16 LTD

....EUR260M A1 Certificate, Downgraded to A1; previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to Aa2

....EUR260M A2 Certificate, Downgraded to A1; previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to Aa2

....EUR257M A3 Certificate, Downgraded to A1; previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to Aa2

Issuer: Fastnet Securities 2 PLC

....EUR1656M A2 Certificate, Downgraded to Baa2; previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to A3 and Remained On Review for Possible Downgrade

Issuer: Fastnet Securities 4 Ltd

....EUR2080M A1 Certificate, Downgraded to Baa2; previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to A1 and Remained On Review for Possible Downgrade

....EUR2080M A2 Certificate, Downgraded to Baa2; previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to A1 and Remained On Review for Possible Downgrade

....EUR2080M A3 Certificate, Downgraded to Baa2; previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to Baa1

Issuer: Fastnet securities 8 Ltd

....EUR483M A1 Certificate, Downgraded to Baa1; previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to A3 and Remained On Review for Possible Downgrade

....EUR483M A2 Certificate, Downgraded to Baa1; previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to A3 and Remained On Review for Possible Downgrade

....EUR483M A3 Certificate, Downgraded to Baa1; previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to A3 and Remained On Review for Possible Downgrade

Issuer: Kildare Securities limited

....US$1451.6M A2 Notes, Downgraded to Baa1; previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to A3 and Remained On Review for Possible Downgrade

....EUR1062M A3 Notes, Downgraded to Baa1; previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to A3 and Remained On Review for Possible Downgrade

Issuer: Phoenix Funding 2 Limited

....EUR7125M A Notes, Downgraded to A1; previously on Jun 2, 2011 Downgraded to Aa3

Issuer: Phoenix funding 3 Limited

....EUR3040M A Notes, Downgraded to A1; previously on Jun 2, 2011 Downgraded to Aa3

Issuer: Phoenix Funding 4 Limited

....EUR748M A Notes, Downgraded to A1; previously on Jun 2, 2011 Downgraded to Aa3

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible Service(s) to the rated entity or its related third parties within the three years preceding the credit rating action. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.

The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

London
Ming Zhou
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

London
Barbara Rismondo
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's downgrades Irish RMBS structured finance transactions
No Related Data.
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