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Related Issuers
Rating Action:

Moody's downgrades Kamaz's ratings to B1; negative outlook

26 Apr 2016

London, 26 April 2016 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded to B1 from Ba3 the corporate family rating (CFR) and to B1-PD from Ba3-PD the probability of default rating (PDR) of KAMAZ PTC (Kamaz), a government-controlled leading Russian truck producer. The outlook on the ratings is negative.

The downgrade factors in the following drivers:

-- deterioration in Kamaz's standalone credit profile

-- Its reliance on government support

-- The company's exposure to further weakness of the Russian economy and domestic truck market

Today's action concludes the rating review initiated by Moody's on 10 March 2016 and follows Moody's confirmation of Russia's Ba1 government bond with a negative outlook on 22 April 2016. For additional information, please refer to the related announcement: https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-confirms-Russias-Ba1-sovereign-rating-outlook-negative--PR_347453

RATINGS RATIONALE

Today's downgrade of Kamaz's rating to B1 from Ba3 was triggered by deterioration in Kamaz's standalone creditworthiness, as measured by the company's baseline credit assessment (BCA), to caa1 from b3 under Moody's government-related issuer (GRI) methodology. That said, Kamaz's B1 rating continues to factor in sizeable uplift to its caa1 BCA, given Moody's assumption of the strong probability of state support in the event of financial distress.

The deterioration of Kamaz's standalone creditworthiness has been driven by the severe and rapid deterioration of the domestic truck market on the back of Russia's weakening economy, as captured by the negative outlook on the sovereign rating. According to different industry sources, the market further contracted by approximately 42% in 2015 after a 25% contraction in 2014.

In addition to market weakness and contracted sales volumes, Kamaz's profitability and cash generation were also negatively affected by a significant depreciation of the Russian rouble in 2014-15. This increased costs as some truck components are priced in hard currency, while the bulk of the company's revenue is generated in roubles. As a result, in 2015, Kamaz's EBITDA and EBITA turned negative, despite the company's focus on cost savings, efforts to pass higher costs onto customers through price increases, and some growth in exports.

Accordingly, Kamaz's end-2015 leverage, measured as adjusted debt/EBITDA, rose to double-digit negative levels. This follows its placement of two 15-year domestic bonds of RUB5 billion each in August and December 2015, under the state guarantee, to finance its modernisation programme. The risk of elevated leverage is somewhat mitigated by Kamaz's long-term debt maturity profile and in particular by the government's support, with the company's debt being predominantly guaranteed by the government or issued by the government and government-controlled banks.

Given the continued economic weakness in Russia, we expect only a marginal recovery, if any, in the company's financial profile in the next 12-18 months, with EBITDA margins to return to low single digits. The government's day-to-day support to Kamaz, ranging from demand-supportive measures to investment and liquidity funding, is the key factor driving the expected improvements, even if these improvements would be limited.

We assume that the Russian government's guarantee of RUB35 billion, of which RUB10 billion covered Kamaz's domestic bonds issued in 2015, will cover any new debt that Kamaz takes on to fund capex, and that this debt will be fully incurred during 2016-17. As such, we expect the company's total leverage to remain elevated in the medium term. However, we consider that government-related and/or government-guaranteed debt will continue to dominate Kamaz's debt portfolio.

RATIONALE FOR THE NEGATIVE OUTLOOK

The negative outlook on Kamaz's rating reflects the pressured standalone credit quality and the negative outlook on the Russian sovereign rating. A further weakening of Russia's operating environment and hence of the Russian truck market may result in further deterioration of the company's very weak financial profile and liquidity position.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING DOWN/UP

Kamaz's rating could be downgraded if (1) Russia's sovereign rating were downgraded; (2) the company's key market were to show no material recovery and its financial and/or liquidity profile were to deteriorate, further challenging its business operations and debt service capacity; or (3) the probability were to fall of government extraordinary support being extended to Russian GRIs and/or Kamaz, in particular in the event of financial distress.

Given the negative outlook and operational weakness Moody's does not envisage positive pressure on Kamaz's rating in the next 12-18 months.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Global Manufacturing Companies published in July 2014. Other methodologies used include the Government-Related Issuers methodology published in October 2014. Please see the Ratings Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

KAMAZ PTC (Kamaz) is a leading player in the Russia market producing a wide range of commercial vehicles, including trucks, trailers, tow tractors and buses. Russia's 100% state-owned investment holding State Corporation Rosstechnologii (RosTec, not rated) holds a 49.9% stake in Kamaz. In 2015, Kamaz generated revenue of RUB97.5 billion ($1.6 billion).

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

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Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Ekaterina Botvinova
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Limited, Russian Branch
7th floor, Four Winds Plaza
21 1st Tverskaya-Yamskaya St.
Moscow 125047
Russia
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Victoria Maisuradze
Associate Managing Director
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
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SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's downgrades Kamaz's ratings to B1; negative outlook
No Related Data.
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