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Rating Action:

Moody's downgrades Modernland to Ca; outlook negative

07 Jul 2020

Singapore, July 07, 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the corporate family rating of Modernland Realty Tbk (P.T.) to Ca from Caa1.

At the same time, Moody's has downgraded the backed senior unsecured rating of the 2021 notes issued by JGC Ventures Pte. Ltd. and the 2024 notes issued by Modernland Overseas Pte. Ltd. to Ca from Caa1. Both JGC Ventures Pte. Ltd. and Modernland Overseas Pte. Ltd. are wholly owned subsidiaries of Modernland and the notes are guaranteed by Modernland and most of its subsidiaries.

The outlook on all ratings remains negative.

RATINGS RATIONALE

"The downgrade of Modernland's ratings reflects our expectation of a high likelihood of imminent default, including a potential debt restructuring, because of a deterioration in the company's operating cash flow generation and liquidity," says Jacintha Poh, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer.

"The negative outlook reflects uncertainty around the recovery rate for the company's combined $390 million of notes in case of default," adds Poh.

Modernland has postponed the principal payment of its IDR150 billion bond that is due 7 July 2020. The company will hold a meeting with bondholders on 14 July 2020 with one of the agenda items being the change of the bond's principal repayment date [1].

Modernland recorded cash outflows of IDR188 billion ($13 million) in the first quarter of 2020. The company's cash and cash equivalents also fell to IDR180 billion as of 31 March 2020 from IDR554 billion as of 31 December 2019. Moody's expects cash flow generation will stay weak in 2020 because coronavirus-led disruptions have resulted in sales cancellations and delays in cash collections.

Unless Modernland is able to secure external funding, the company will not have sufficient funds to repay its IDR150 billion bond due 7 July 2020 and meet interest payments of around IDR250 billion semi-annually on its US dollar bonds -- $150 million 10.75% due August 2021 and $240 million 6.95% due April 2024. A missed payment on either obligation, not remediated within its respective cure period, will lead to an event of default under the indentures of its US dollar bonds.

The rapid spread of the coronavirus outbreak, deteriorating global economic outlook, low oil prices and high asset price volatility have created an unprecedented credit shock across a range of sectors and regions. Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its environmental, social and governance (ESG) framework, given the substantial implications for public health and safety. Today's action reflects the impact on Modernland of deterioration in credit quality it has triggered, given its exposure to Indonesia's real estate sector which has left it vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment in these unprecedented operating conditions.

Moody's has considered governance risk around Modern Group's history of debt restructuring. Moody's has also considered the founding family's concentrated ownership of Modernland, although this risk is mitigated by the oversight exercised through the board which for the majority consists of independent commissioners.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

An upgrade of Modernland's ratings is currently unlikely, and would be conditional upon the company establishing a sustainable capital structure and restoring its liquidity.

Modernland's ratings could be downgraded further in case of default, including a formal debt restructuring, if Moody's estimates that expected losses for the company's creditors will be higher than those implied by the Ca rating.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Homebuilding And Property Development Industry published in January 2018 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1108031. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Modernland Realty Tbk (P.T.) is an integrated property developer in Indonesia that focuses on industrial town development, residential development and township development. It also has small exposures to the hospitality and commercial property segments. The company listed on the Jakarta Stock Exchange in 1993, and is controlled by the Honoris family through direct ownership and various holding companies.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website www.moodys.com.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1133569.

At least one ESG consideration was material to the credit rating action(s) announced and described above.

The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.

REFERENCES/CITATIONS

[1] PT Modernland Realty Tbk notice to Indonesia Central Securities Depository 06-Jul-2020

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Jacintha Poh
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Vikas Halan
Associate Managing Director
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

No Related Data.
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