Singapore, October 12, 2022 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has downgraded the corporate family rating of NagaCorp Ltd. to B2 from B1.
At the same time, Moody's has downgraded the senior unsecured rating of the company's US dollar bond to B2 from B1. The bond is unconditionally and irrevocably guaranteed by the major operating subsidiaries of NagaCorp.
The outlook remains negative.
"The downgrade reflects NagaCorp's slower-than-expected operational recovery such that the company will likely require external financing to repay its outstanding $545 million bond maturing in July 2024. The refinancing risk is exacerbated by tight funding conditions in the current economic environment and limited sources of liquidity for the company," says Yu Sheng Tay, a Moody's Analyst.
"The negative outlook reflects NagaCorp's heightened refinancing risk. At the same time, it reflects ongoing uncertainties around the pace of recovery in the company's operating performance," adds Tay.
Governance consideration was a key driver of the rating action. Moody's views that the company's concentrated debt structure and reliance on external funding have resulted in heightened refinancing risks. Consequently, Moody's has changed the governance issuer profile score to G-4 from G-3 and the ESG credit impact score to CIS-4 from CIS-3.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Moody's expects NagaCorp to generate EBITDA of around $252 million and $352 million in 2022 and 2023, respectively, compared with $16 million in 2021. The improvement is supported by the easing of pandemic-related restrictions in Cambodia, which has resulted in a gradual recovery in the country's tourism sector.
Nonetheless, the company's earnings in 2022 and 2023 will remain well below that of 2019. The slower recovery is attributed to increasing regulatory scrutiny and clampdown on gaming promoters, which drove a significant portion of the revenues for NagaCorp historically.
NagaCorp is also exposed to rising refinancing risks because of a debt maturity wall in July 2024. The company has a $545 million bond that forms its entire debt structure, excluding lease liabilities.
Moody's believes the company's ability to raise external financing is challenged given the tight funding conditions in the current economic environment. At the same time, NagaCorp has limited sources of liquidity given its lack of bank facilities and divestible non-core assets.
While NagaCorp can reduce both its development capital expenditure for Naga 3 and cash dividends to preserve liquidity, the company has continued to incur such cash outflows since 2020, despite operational disruptions because of the pandemic.
As of 30 June 2022, NagaCorp had cash and cash equivalents of $213 million. Moody's expects the company to generate sufficient operating cash flow to meet its cash needs through June 2024. However, the company will likely require external financing to repay its US-dollar bond on 6 July 2024.
NagaCorp's B2 ratings continue to reflect the dominant position of its integrated casino and hotel complex, NagaWorld, in Phnom Penh, Cambodia (B2 stable), underpinned by an exclusive right lasting until 2045 to operate casinos in and around the capital city of Phnom Penh. However, the ratings are constrained by its single-site operations as well as exposure to political risk and the evolving regulatory framework in Cambodia.
NagaCorp's ESG credit impact score is highly negative (CIS-4). This largely reflects its heightened refinancing risks and concentrated ownership by the founder. At the same time, the company is exposed to physical climate risk arising from its asset concentration in Cambodia and very high social risks that are inherent to the gaming sector.
NagaCorp has a highly negative credit exposure to governance risk (G-4) because its concentrated debt structure and reliance on external funding have resulted in heightened refinancing risks. At the same time, it also reflects the company's concentrated ownership by the founder, Dr. Chen Lip Keong. However, the risk is mitigated by the oversight exercised through the board consisting of majority independent directors and the demonstration of support by the controlling shareholder, who has funded the company's expansion by injecting equity.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Given the negative outlook, an upgrade is unlikely over the next 12-18 months. However, the outlook could return to stable if NagaCorp addresses its refinancing risk while demonstrating an operational recovery.
Moody's could downgrade NagaCorp's ratings if the operating environment deteriorates, resulting in protracted weakness in operating cash flow; the company fails to maintain its 100% ownership of Ariston Sdn. Bhd, which holds its Cambodian casino license, and 100% ownership of NagaWorld; or the company is unable to address its refinancing risk.
Credit metrics indicative of a downgrade include adjusted debt/EBITDA exceeding 3.0x and adjusted retained cash flow/debt falling below 25% over the next 12-18 months .
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Gaming published in June 2021 and available at https://ratings.moodys.com/api/rmc-documents/72953. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on https://ratings.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
NagaCorp Ltd. was incorporated in the Cayman Islands in 2003 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2006. The company owns and manages NagaWorld, the largest integrated casino and hotel complex in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. NagaCorp was founded by Tan Sri Dr. Chen Lip Keong, the company's chief executive officer and largest shareholder with an approximate 69% stake as of 22 July 2022.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found on https://ratings.moodys.com/rating-definitions.
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Yu Sheng Tay
Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
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Singapore, 068895
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Vikas Halan
Associate Managing Director
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
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JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077