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Rating Action:

Moody's downgrades True Corp and True Move to B3; ratings on review for downgrade

29 Nov 2013

Hong Kong, November 29, 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded to B3 from B2 the corporate family rating of True Corporation Public Company Limited, and the corporate family and senior unsecured bond ratings of its consolidated subsidiary, True Move Company Limited.

Moody's has also placed all ratings under review for further downgrade.

RATINGS RATIONALE

"The rating action reflects the prolonged character of True Corp's negative free cash flows (FCF), due to weak earnings from the mobile business and a high level of capital expenditures (capex). As a result, we expect its financial and liquidity profiles to remain under pressure in the coming 12-18 months," says Yoshio Takahashi, a Moody's Assistant Vice President.

True Corp's negative FCF rose to THB21 billion for the 12-month period ended September 2013 from about THB6 billion in 2011 and below Moody's expectation. Moody's estimates that its negative FCF will likely remain at a similar level in 2014, given large capital requirements for 3G and the potential for additional spectrum fee payments following the 1.8 GHz spectrum auction in 2014.

At the same time, True Corp's reported consolidated EBITDA margin is likely to stay weak. Its reported consolidated EBITDA margin in Q3 2013 further declined to 17.6% in Q3 2013 from 19.8% in Q1 2013 and 18.8% in Q2 2013.

While a reduction in revenue-sharing costs for expanding 3G revenue may help slightly improve its margins, Moody's expects its reported consolidated EBITDA margin will stay at around or below 20%, due to rapid declines in earnings from 2G services, as well as intensified competition in 3G services.

Given the continued increase in debt, its leverage -- as measured by adjusted debt/EBITDA -- is likely to increase to approximately 6.5x in the coming 12 months from 6.1x for the 12-month period ended September 2013.

Such financial metrics are weak for the rating level.

As a result, absent any recapitalization initiative, the company will likely require covenant waivers when covenant tests on its bank facilities commence in September 2014.

Moody's views that True Corp's liquidity profile remains strained. In Moody's estimation, internal cash source from Q4 2013 to Q3 2014 will measure approximately THB40 billion, comprising cash holdings of THB7.6 billion, undrawn committed bank facilities of THB24.2 billion as of end-September 2013, and expected operating cash flow of approximately THB7-8 billion.

Moody's estimates that this total is insufficient to cover its expected capex of approximately THB25 billion to THB30 billion and debt maturities of THB19.4 billion during the same period, including approximately USD5.0 million(THB155 million) outstanding under the USD465 million bonds due 16 December 2013 and USD10.6 million (THB338 million) under the USD 225 million bonds due 1 August 2014.

The company is likely to continue to depend on borrowings from the domestic bank and bond markets to meet a financing gap.

True Corp's equity base has also weakened significantly. Its reported equity, as of September 2013, was about THB5 billion, while its net loss for Q3 2012 was about THB4.3 billion.

Although gains from the sale of its non-core businesses in Q4 2013 will help the company strengthen its equity base to some degree, its equity could turn negative over several quarters without timely recapitalization.

Moody's recognizes that True Corp launched an infrastructure fund on 27 November 2013. It is planning to sell the ownership of its assets -- such as towers and fiber optic networks -- to the fund and use the proceeds to reduce its debt and restore its equity base.

However, the fund is still in the process of seeking approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in Thailand. Moody's sees uncertainty over whether True Corp can establish it in a timely manner, how much it can generate in terms of cash proceeds, and how much debt it can reduce.

In addition, since True Corp plans to lease the assets from the infrastructure fund, Moody's expects only a limited improvement in its adjusted leverage. In accordance with our standard financial adjustments, Moody's will make operating lease adjustments to estimate True Corp's adjusted debt. True Corp will also be obligated to construct up to 6,000 towers to be injected into the fund over the next two years.

Moody's review will focus on whether the company will be able to implement its recapitalization plans, especially, the planned infrastructure fund, in a timely manner. The review will also assess the effectiveness of the plans in helping the company mitigate its financial and liquidity pressures.

The outlook on the ratings could stabilize should True Corp successfully IPO the fund and raise funds to reduce debt. However any material delay in the SEC approval process or launch of the fund IPO, or ongoing erosion in fundamentals, could result in further downgrade action.

Moody's notes that the standalone financial profile of True Corp's consolidated subsidiary True Move -- which provides 2G mobile services -- is weaker than that of True Corp itself.

However, Moody's rates True Move in line with True Corp largely because True Move's bank debt and bonds are guaranteed by those True Corp mobile subsidiaries which mainly offer 3G services. Given the strategic importance of the mobile business, Moody's believes that True Corp will in turn support True Move.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Global Telecommunications Industry, published in December 2010. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Headquartered in Bangkok, True Corp is an integrated provider of fixed-line, broadband, and mobile and pay TV services. True Move, 99.3% owned by True Corp, is a mobile company which provides 2G services.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

The first name below is the lead rating analyst for this Credit Rating and the last name below is the person primarily responsible for approving this Credit Rating.

Yoshio Takahashi
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

Philipp L. Lotter
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (65) 6398-8308

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

Moody's downgrades True Corp and True Move to B3; ratings on review for downgrade
No Related Data.
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