New York, March 24, 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded Ukraine's long-term
issuer and government debt ratings to Ca from Caa3. The outlook
remains negative.
The key driver of the downgrade is the likelihood of external private
creditors incurring substantial losses as a result of the government's
plan to restructure the majority of its outstanding Eurobonds.
Also included in the restructuring is the external debt of state-guaranteed
entities and selected other state-owned enterprises, and
the Eurobonds issued by the capital city of Kiev.
The negative outlook reflects Moody's expectation that Ukraine's
government and external debt levels will remain very high, in spite
of the debt restructuring and plans to introduce reforms.
In a related rating action, Moody's also downgraded the issuer
and debt ratings of the "Financing of Infrastructural Projects"
(Fininpro) to Ca/(P)Ca from Caa3/(P)Caa3 and maintained the negative outlook.
Fininpro's debt is fully and unconditionally guaranteed by the government
of Ukraine.
Moody's also lowered Ukraine's country ceiling for long-term
foreign currency debt to Caa3 from Caa2, and its country ceiling
for long-term domestic currency debt and deposits to Caa2 from
Caa1. Ukraine's country ceiling for foreign-currency
bank deposits remains unchanged at Ca. All short-term country
ceilings also remain unchanged at Not Prime (NP).
RATINGS RATIONALE
RATIONALE FOR THE DOWNGRADE OF UKRAINE'S GOVERNMENT RATINGS TO Ca
The key driver of Moody's decision to downgrade Ukraine's
long-term government debt and issuer ratings to Ca is the government's
plan to restructure the majority of its outstanding Eurobonds as well
as other public sector external debt and the rating agency's expectation
that private creditors will incur substantial economic losses as a result
of the restructuring. The debt operation is intended to provide
$15.3 billion of the four-year, $40
billion external financing package agreed with the IMF and other multilateral
and bilateral creditors. The package was approved by the IMF Executive
Board on March 11.
Although negotiations over the specific details of the restructuring are
only now getting underway, Moody's believes that the likelihood
of a distressed exchange, and hence a default on government debt
taking place, is virtually 100%. The bonds'
recovery value will be determined by the terms of the debt exchange and
is currently being discussed with creditors. The terms could include
a grace period on principal repayments during the term of the IMF program,
a reduction in the existing bonds' current coupons, which
now average 7.1%, and a haircut on the outstanding
principal.
RATIONALE FOR MAINTAINING A NEGATIVE OUTLOOK
The principal objective of the proposed debt exchange is to reduce the
government's external debt and debt service to more manageable levels.
This effort will be supported by the economic, budget/debt and monetary
reforms being pursued by the new government in connection with the IMF
program. These comprehensive sectoral, judicial and social
reforms aim to stabilize the economy and return it to a positive growth
path.
However, Ukraine's government and external debt will remain
at very high levels even if these reforms are successful, and despite
the lower debt levels achieved by the external debt restructuring.
These solvency challenges are the key reason for maintaining a negative
outlook on the government's downgraded ratings.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP/DOWN
Moody's would consider moving the rating outlook to stable after the debt
restructuring if it were to see a sustained normalization of the geopolitical
situation in Eastern Ukraine, along with improvements in the country's
external liquidity position. An upgrade would likely require several
additional factors to be in place, including a positive policy track
record of structural reforms, improved growth prospects and positive
debt dynamics.
We would downgrade Ukraine's rating if bond holders were to incur
higher losses than what is captured by the Ca rating following the planned
debt restructuring, or any other default by the government.
GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 8,651 (2013
Actual) (also known as Per Capita Income)
Real GDP growth (% change): -6.9% (2014
Actual) (also known as GDP Growth)
Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 24.5%
(2014 Actual)
Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -4.6%
(2014 Actual) (also known as Fiscal Balance)
Current Account Balance/GDP: -9% (2013 Actual) (also
known as External Balance)
External debt/GDP: 77.5% (2013 actual)
Level of economic development: Very Low level of economic resilience
Default history: At least one default event (on bonds and/or loans)
has been recorded since 1983.
On 20 March 2015, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating
of the Ukraine, Government of. The main points raised during
the discussion were: The issuer has become increasingly susceptible
to event risks. The outlook for post-restructuring recovery
has worsened.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Sovereign Bond Ratings
published in September 2013. Please see the Credit Policy page
on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used
in this rating action, if applicable.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Kristin Lindow
Senior Vice President
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Yves Lemay
Managing Director
Sovereign Risk Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's downgrades Ukraine's sovereign ratings to Ca; outlook remains negative