EUR5.5 billion of notes affected.
Frankfurt am Main, June 26, 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded to Aa1 from Aaa (on review for
downgrade) the ratings on the public-sector covered bonds (Oeffentliche
Pfandbriefe) issued by UniCredit Bank AG (deposits Baa1 negative;
bank financial strength rating D+/adjusted baseline credit assessment
baa3) and governed by the German Pfandbrief Act. This rating action
concludes the review of the above ratings initiated on 24 March 2014.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating review of UniCredit Bank AG's public-sector covered
bonds followed the downgrade of UniCredit Bank AG's long-term
debt rating to Baa1 from A3 on 21 March. As a result of this downgrade,
the issuer needed to provide committed over-collateralisation (OC)
of 8% in order to maintain the Aaa ratings on the public-sector
covered bonds. However, UniCredit Bank AG confirmed that
it will not provide any OC commitment beyond the statutory minimum OC
level of 2%, prompting Moody's downgrade of the public-sector
covered bonds' ratings to Aa1.
Moody's has assigned a timely payment indicator (TPI) of "High"
to this programme. Moody's TPI framework does not constrain
the rating.
KEY RATING ASSUMPTIONS/FACTORS
Moody's determines covered bond ratings using a two-step
process: an expected loss analysis and a TPI framework analysis.
EXPECTED LOSS: Moody's uses its Covered Bond Model (COBOL)
to determine a rating based on the expected loss on the bond. COBOL
determines expected loss as (1) a function of the probability that the
issuer will cease making payments under the covered bonds (a CB anchor
event); and (2) the stressed losses on the cover pool assets following
a CB anchor event.
The CB anchor for this programme is the senior unsecured rating (SUR)
plus 0 notches given the debt ratio is below 5%.
The cover pool losses for UniCredit Bank AG's public-sector
covered bonds are 7.9%. This is an estimate of the
losses Moody's currently models following a CB anchor event. Moody's
splits cover pool losses between market risk of 5.6% and
collateral risk of 2.3%. Market risk measures losses
stemming from refinancing risk and risks related to interest-rate
and currency mismatches (these losses may also include certain legal risks).
Collateral risk measures losses resulting directly from cover pool assets'
credit quality. Moody's derives collateral risk from the
collateral score, which is currently 4.7% for this
programme.
The OC in the cover pool is 35.7%, of which UniCredit
Bank AG provides 2% on a "committed" basis.
The minimum OC level consistent with the Aa1 rating target is 4.5%,
of which the issuer should provide 0% in a "committed"
form (numbers in present value terms). These numbers show that
Moody's is relying on "uncommitted" OC in its expected
loss analysis.
All numbers in this section are based on the most recent Performance Overview
/ Moody's most recent modelling (based on data, as per 31
March 2014).
For further details on cover pool losses, collateral risk,
market risk, collateral score and TPI Leeway across covered bond
programmes rated by Moody's, please refer to "Moody's Global Covered
Bonds Monitoring Overview", published quarterly.
TPI FRAMEWORK: Moody's assigns a (TPI), which measures the
likelihood of timely payments to covered bondholders following a CB anchor
event. The TPI framework limits the covered bond rating to a certain
number of notches above the CB anchor.
FACTORS THAT WOULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATING:
The CB anchor is the main determinant of a covered bond programme's rating
robustness. A change in the level of the CB anchor could lead to
an upgrade or downgrade of the covered bond ratings. The TPI Leeway
measures the number of notches by which Moody's might lower the CB anchor
before it downgrades the covered bond ratings as a result of TPI framework
constraints.
Based on the current TPI of "High", the TPI Leeway for
this programme is one notch. This implies that Moody's might
downgrade the covered bonds because of a TPI cap, if it lowers the
CB anchor by two notches, all other variables being equal.
A multiple-notch downgrade of the covered bonds might occur in
certain limited circumstances, such as (1) a sovereign downgrade
negatively affecting both the issuer's senior unsecured rating and the
TPI; (2) a multiple-notch downgrade of the issuer; or
(3) a material reduction in the value of the cover pool.
RATING METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's
Approach to Rating Covered Bonds" published in March 2014.
Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for
a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and
sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and
Sensitivity to Assumptions of the disclosure form.
Moody's did not use any stress scenario simulations in its analysis.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Martin Lenhard
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Juan Pablo Soriano
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's downgrades UniCredit Bank AG's public-sector covered bonds to Aa1