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Rating Action:

Moody's downgrades Vologda Oblast to Ba2 stable; Outlook on Belgorod Oblast, Nizhniy Novgorod Oblast and Tatarstan Republic changed to stable

16 Dec 2010

Moscow, December 16, 2010 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the foreign and local currency issuer ratings of the Vologda Oblast (Russia) to Ba2 from Ba1. The outlook on the ratings has been changed to stable from negative. Separately, Moody's has also changed the outlook to stable from negative for the ratings assigned to Nizhniy Novgorod Oblast (Ba2), Belgorod Oblast (Ba1) and Tatarstan Republic (Ba1). Moody's also affirmed the foreign and local currency issuer ratings of the Saratov Oblast (Ba2); the outlook remains negative.

Separately, Moody's Interfax Rating Agency has today downgraded the national scale rating (NSR) of the Vologda Oblast to Aa2.ru from Aa1.ru. Moody's Interfax also affirmed the long-term NSRs of Belgorod Oblast (Aa1.ru), Nizhniy Novgorod Oblast (Aa2.ru), Saratov Oblast (Aa2.ru). NSRs carry no specific outlook.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Vologda Oblast - Moody's one-notch downgrade of the Vologda Oblast reflects rapid growth in its market borrowing in 2009-2010 and an expected further increase in its debt burden going forward. "Notwithstanding the post-recessionary recovery in the regional economy and some resumption in tax revenue, the region has not been able to adjust its spending in order to avoid substantial operating and financing deficits," explains Alexander Proklov, a Moody's Vice President, Senior Analyst and lead analyst for Russian sub-sovereigns. Persistent challenges -- particularly the volatility that characterises the region's tax proceeds given its high concentration on one large taxpayer -- will also exert adverse pressure on the credit profile of Vologda Oblast.

The outlook on Vologda's Ba2 rating has been changed to stable, based on the regional government's clear intention to introduce fiscal consolidation measures beyond 2011, supporting a gradual decline in debt ratios to moderate levels in the medium term. "Moody's anticipates that the regional government's willingness to improve its budget strategy will be supported by some diversification in the local economy and, therefore, steady growth in the region's tax base," adds Mr Proklov.

Tatarstan Republic, Nizhniy Novgorod Oblast, Belgorod Oblast - The changes in outlook to stable from negative for the ratings of the Tatarstan Republic, Nizhniy Novgorod Oblast and Belgorod Oblast reflect these regions' improving financial positions. "Despite persistent rigidity on the expenditure side of the regional budgets and some uncertainty with regard to budget plans, these regions have displayed significant improvements in their key financial ratios compared with the recessionary deterioration witnessed in H1 2009," says Mr. Proklov. According to Moody's, the debt burdens of these entities remain at levels appropriate for the rating category, while market conditions are currently favourable for refinancing of existing debt.

Saratov Oblast - Moody's has retained the negative outlook on Saratov Oblast's ratings following the recent substantial growth in the region's direct debt and persistent operating and financing deficits. "In 2009-2010, the regional government incurred some additional social expenditure payments, while its revenue stream remained insufficient to fully fund these responsibilities," explains Mr. Proklov. Nevertheless, outstanding debt is currently at levels that are appropriate for the rating category. Moreover, Saratov's government has forecast a very low financing deficit in 2011 and does not envisage any additional debt growth. "Moody's will continue to monitor Saratov's debt policy and liquidity profile over the next 9-12 months to ensure the adequacy of the policy response to existing budget pressures," adds Mr. Proklov.

Overall, Moody's notes that the federal financial support provided in 2009 and 2010 (in the form of transfers and budget loans), as well as enhanced federal oversight have facilitated the transition of Russian sub-sovereigns to a post-crisis environment. Since H2 2009, most Russian sub-sovereigns have shown some improvements in their budgetary performances, largely thanks to the wider economic recovery and favourable commodity prices. Stabilisation and streamlining of the sub-sovereign debt is also common, although there are some exceptions. Nevertheless, the expected gradual withdrawal of federal support may pose some risks, particularly with regard to sub-sovereigns with weak liquidity positions and high refinancing needs. Moody's will continue to monitor the situation in the Russian sub-sovereign sector closely to estimate the possible repercussions of federal consolidation measures.

The previous rating actions that Moody's implemented on these Russian sub-sovereigns are as follows:

Vologda, Oblast of: the outlook on the oblast's global scale local and foreign currency ratings of Ba1 was changed to negative from stable on 5 June 2009.

Belgorod, Oblast of: the outlook on the oblast's global scale local and foreign currency ratings of Ba1 was changed to negative from stable on 5 June 2009.

Nizhniy Novgorod, Oblast of: the outlook on the oblast's global scale local currency rating of Ba2 was changed to negative from stable on 5 June 2009.

Saratov, Oblast of: the outlook on the oblast's global scale local currency ratings of Ba2 was changed to negative from stable on 5 June 2009.

Tatarstan, Republic of: the outlook on the republic's global scale foreign currency rating of Ba1 was changed to negative from stable on 5 June 2009.

The principal methodologies used in these ratings were "Regional and Local Governments Outside the US" published in May 2008, and "The Application of Joint Default Analysis to Regional and Local Governments" published in December 2008.

Moody's Interfax Rating Agency's National Scale Ratings (NSRs) are intended as relative measures of creditworthiness among debt issues and issuers within a country, enabling market participants to better differentiate relative risks. NSRs differ from Moody's global scale ratings in that they are not globally comparable with the full universe of Moody's rated entities, but only with NSRs for other rated debt issues and issuers within the same country. NSRs are designated by a ".nn" country modifier signifying the relevant country, as in ".ru" for Russia. For further information on Moody's approach to national scale ratings, please refer to Moody's Rating Implementation Guidance published in August 2010 entitled "Mapping Moody's National Scale Ratings to Global Scale Ratings."

ABOUT MOODY'S AND MOODY'S INTERFAX

Moody's Interfax Rating Agency (MIRA) specializes in credit risk analysis in Russia. MIRA is controlled by Moody's Investors Service, a leading provider of credit ratings, research and analysis covering debt instruments and securities in the global capital markets. Moody's Investors Service is a subsidiary of Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO).

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

Information sources used to prepare the credit rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.

Moody's Investors Service considers the quality of information available on the issuer or obligation satisfactory for the purposes of maintaining a credit rating.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on Moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.

The date on which some Credit Ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's Investors Service's Credit Ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's Investors Service provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see the Credit Policy page on Moodys.com for the methodologies used in determining ratings, further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Moscow
Alexander Proklov
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Sub-Sovereign Group
Moody's Eastern Europe LLC
Telephone: +7 495 228 6060
Facsimile: +7 495 228 6091

Milan
Mauro Crisafulli
Senior Vice President
Sub-Sovereign Group
Moody's Italia S.r.l
Telephone:+39-02-9148-1100

Moody's Eastern Europe LLC
7th floor, Four Winds Plaza
21 1st Tverskaya-Yamskaya St.
Moscow 125047
Russia
Telephone: +7 495 228 6060
Facsimile: +7 495 228 6091

Moody's downgrades Vologda Oblast to Ba2 stable; Outlook on Belgorod Oblast, Nizhniy Novgorod Oblast and Tatarstan Republic changed to stable
No Related Data.
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​
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