London, 17 September 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") today
downgraded the ratings on eight non-financial corporates domiciled
in Turkey and maintained the negative rating outlooks.
Today's rating actions follow the weakening of the Turkish government's
credit profile, as captured by Moody's recent decision to downgrade
Turkey's government bond ratings to B2 from B1 while maintaining
a negative outlook. Moody's also lowered Turkey's foreign currency
bond ceiling to B2 from B1. For further information, refer
to the sovereign press release published on 11 September 2020: https://www.moodys.com/research/--PR_431146.
Moody's has downgraded the ratings of the following eight Turkish corporates
to B2 with negative outlooks:
• Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii A.S. (Efes)
• Coca-Cola Icecek A.S. (CCI)
• Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari T.A.S. (Erdemir)
• Koc Holding A.S. (Koc Holding)
• Ordu Yardimlasma Kurumu (OYAK)
• Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. (Turkcell)
• Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. (Tupras)
• Turkiye Sise ve Cam Fabrikalari A.S. (Sisecam)
Moody's has also downgraded the national scale CFR of Erdemir to A2.tr
from Aa2.tr to reflect the mapping of Global Scale Ratings to NSR.
The ratings and outlook on Petkim Petrokimya Holding A.S.
(B2 negative), Ronesans Gayrimenkul Yatirim A.S. (B2
negative) and Turk Hava Yollari Anonim Ortakligi (B3 negative) are unchanged
because the ratings are already at or below the country's foreign
currency ceiling.
Please click on this link https://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_ARFTL432749
for the List of Affected Credit Ratings. This list is an integral
part of this Press Release and identifies each affected issuer.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating actions on these corporates are a direct consequence of the
downgrade of the Government of Turkey and the lowering of Turkey's foreign
currency bond ceiling, both to B2. As a result, corporates
which were previously constrained at the B1 ceiling are now constrained
at B2. The negative outlooks continue to reflect the negative outlook
on the sovereign rating.
Most rated corporates continue to have prudent financial policies,
adequate liquidity, moderate leverage and strong business profiles
which in some cases is supported by geographic diversification outside
of Turkey or export revenues. However, their ratings are
constrained by the foreign currency bond ceiling because these companies
are materially exposed to Turkey's political, legal, fiscal
and regulatory environment. In particular, the risk of government-imposed
measures to preserve the country's foreign exchange reserves is increasingly
likely to crystalize. This could prevent corporates from accessing
their foreign currency cash deposits or servicing their foreign currency
debt obligations.
For OYAK, the negative outlook also reflects a deterioration in
liquidity. This stems from an increase in short-term debt
and lower dividend income due to temporary restrictions imposed by the
Turkish government that currently limits dividends to 25% of net
profits. Dividends from its investee companies form OYAK's
main source of income. However, the rating assumes that OYAK
will restore to a more adequate liquidity by leveraging on its investment
portfolio.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
The ratings of the above-listed corporates could be upgraded if
Turkey's foreign currency bond ceiling is raised. This would also
require no material deterioration in the companies' operating and financial
performance, market positions and liquidity.
Their ratings are likely to be downgraded in case of a further downgrade
of Turkey's sovereign rating or a lowering of the foreign currency bond
ceiling. In addition, downward rating pressure could arise
if there are signs of a deterioration in liquidity or if government-imposed
measures were to have an adverse impact on corporate credit quality.
In addition to the above, the following company specific rating
guidance applies.
Erdemir
Erdemir's rating could come under negative rating pressure if leverage
increased materially from current levels on a sustained basis or there
is a shift towards higher risk financial policies. Specifically,
if distribution to shareholders (including OYAK) lead to inadequate liquidity.
OYAK
The rating could be downgraded if the company fails to establish an adequate
liquidity profile over the coming months by way of refinancing debt,
upstreaming dividends or monetize a portion of its investment holdings.
Tupras
Tupras' ratings could experience downward ratings pressure if plant utilisation
and net refining margins remain low, leading to depressed operating
cash flow in 2021. Specifically, the ratings could be downgraded
if Moody's adjusted debt/ EBITDA (including inventory gains/losses) remains
above 5.5x or adjusted EBITDA/interest remains below 1.25x,
on a sustained basis.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in rating Turkiye Sise ve Cam Fabrikalari
A.S. was Manufacturing Methodology published in March 2020
and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1206079.
The principal methodology used in rating Coca-Cola Icecek A.S.
was Global Soft Beverage Industry published in January 2017 and available
at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1053179.
The principal methodology used in rating Ordu Yardimlasma Kurumu (OYAK)
and Koc Holding A.S. was Investment Holding Companies and
Conglomerates published in July 2018 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1125855.
The principal methodology used in rating Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari
T.A.S. was Steel Industry published in September
2017 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1074524.
The principal methodology used in rating Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S.
was Refining and Marketing Industry published in November 2016 and available
at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1040610.
The principal methodology used in rating Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri
A.S. was Telecommunications Service Providers published
in January 2017 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1055812.
The principal methodology used in rating Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt
Sanayii A.S. was Alcoholic Beverages Methodology published
in February 2020 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1212834.
Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com
for a copy of these methodologies.
Moody's National Scale Credit Ratings (NSRs) are intended as relative
measures of creditworthiness among debt issues and issuers within a country,
enabling market participants to better differentiate relative risks.
NSRs differ from Moody's global scale credit ratings in that they are
not globally comparable with the full universe of Moody's rated entities,
but only with NSRs for other rated debt issues and issuers within the
same country. NSRs are designated by a ".nn"
country modifier signifying the relevant country, as in ".za"
for South Africa. For further information on Moody's approach to
national scale credit ratings, please refer to Moody's Credit rating
Methodology published in May 2016 entitled "Mapping National Scale Ratings
from Global Scale Ratings". While NSRs have no inherent absolute
meaning in terms of default risk or expected loss, a historical
probability of default consistent with a given NSR can be inferred from
the GSR to which it maps back at that particular point in time.
For information on the historical default rates associated with different
global scale rating categories over different investment horizons,
please see https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1216309.
The local market analyst for Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S.,
Koc Holding A.S. and Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S.
ratings is Dion Bate, +971 (423) 795-04. The
local market analyst for Turkiye Sise ve Cam Fabrikalari A.S.,
Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii A.S. and Coca-Cola
Icecek A.S. ratings is Thomas Le Guay, +971 (423)
795-45.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The List of Affected Credit Ratings announced here are a mix of solicited
and unsolicited credit ratings. Additionally, the List of
Affected Credit Ratings includes additional disclosures that vary with
regard to some of the ratings. Please click on this link https://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_ARFTL432749
for the List of Affected Credit Ratings. This list is an integral
part of this Press Release and provides, for each of the credit
ratings covered, Moody's disclosures on the following items:
• Rating Solicitation
• Issuer Participation
• Participation: Access to Management
• Participation: Access to Internal Documents
• Disclosure to Rated Entity
• Endorsement
• Lead Analyst
• Releasing Office
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and
sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and
Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's
Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.
For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of
debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures
in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the
same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant
to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing
ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings
issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain
regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the
support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action
for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's
credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement
provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional
rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may
be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each
case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior
to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have
affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings
tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action,
and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action,
the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social
and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1133569.
The below contact information is provided for information purposes only.
Please see the ratings tab of the issuer page at www.moodys.com,
for each of the ratings covered, Moody's disclosures on the
lead rating analyst and the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the ratings.
The relevant office for each credit rating is identified in "Debt/deal
box" on the Ratings tab in the Debt/Deal List section of each issuer/entity
page of the website.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Denis Perevezentsev, CFA
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Limited, Russian Branch
7th floor, Four Winds Plaza
21 1st Tverskaya-Yamskaya St.
Moscow 125047
Russia
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Mario Santangelo
Associate Managing Director
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454