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Rating Action:

Moody's downgrades eighteen Russian Sub-Sovereign ratings to Ca; outlook negative

10 Mar 2022

London, March 10, 2022 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) has today downgraded the ratings of sixteen Russian regions and cities and two government-related issuers to Ca with negative outlooks. All Regional and Local Governments' (RLGs) Baseline Credit Assessments (BCAs) were also downgraded to ca. This concludes the review for downgrade initiated on 1 March 2022.

This rating action follows the further significant weakening of Russia's credit profile as captured by the downgrade to Ca with a negative outlook of the sovereign rating on 6 March 2022. The sovereign action is driven by severe concerns around Russia's willingness and ability to pay its obligations. For additional information, please refer to the related announcement: https://www.moodys.com/research/-PR_463675.

The multi-notch downgrade of the sub-sovereign ratings with a negative outlook reflects exposure to the severe increase in systemic risk through economic, financial and institutional linkages with the sovereign. Sub-Sovereigns' ability to meet their debt obligations is impaired by heightened uncertainty about how the institutional framework will be applied and whether the disruptions in bond payments in Russia may also affect sub-sovereign issuers. Specifically, Moody's has downgraded to Ca with a negative outlook the ratings of the cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg, SUE Vodokanal of St. Petersburg, OJSC Western High-Speed Diameter, Oblast of Moscow, Republic of Bashkortostan, Republic of Tatarstan, Khanty-Mansiysk AO, Oblast of Samara, Republic of Chuvashia, Krai of Krasnoyarsk, Krai of Krasnodar, Republic of Komi, Oblast of Omsk, Oblast of Nizhniy Novgorod, City of Krasnodar, City of Omsk and City of Volgograd.

The full list of affected issuers and credit ratings can be found at the end of this press release.

RATINGS RATIONALE

-- RATIONALE FOR DOWNGRADE OF REGIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS' RATINGS

The rating downgrade of RLGs reflects the deterioration of their credit profiles due to the economic, financial and institutional linkages with the sovereign. RLGs are exposed to rapid and unexpected policy changes which Moody's expects will restrict cross-border payments and, which in turn, raise significant concerns over the ability of the RLGs to meet their debt commitments on time and in full.

Russian RLGs are exposed to the ongoing economic deterioration in Russia. Many regions' economic activity is concentrated in particular sectors, such as oil and gas, metal production, financial activities or petrochemicals, that are directly or indirectly affected by sanctions. Moreover, the sharp depreciation of the ruble negatively affects purchasing power weighing on domestic demand; while the currency's instability is already causing disruptions in trade and production. In turn, a marked contraction in economic activity will undermine key local taxpayers' ability to generate revenue and pay taxes, directly affecting RLGs' tax collection. In addition, the sanctions on high-technology imports will likely impair the medium-to long-term growth and diversification potential of some regions. Expenses will also rise due to higher inflation, exerting additional pressure on budgets.

Furthermore, turbulence on local financial markets is driving higher borrowing costs for the RLGs and worsening their access to market funding. At end-2021, local market funding accounted for 44% of total direct debt of all Russian regions, with the remaining 56% comprised of budget loans from the central government. As a result, the currently robust liquidity buffers of many RLGs may erode to avoid contracting new debt at much higher costs.

At the same time, lower lending appetite from the Russian banking system may limit funding availability, especially for the weaker RLGs. Disruptions to sovereign debt repayments especially in the local currency obligations would lead to severe market dislocation and reduced access to funding for RLGs.

Finally, while Moody's expects federal government support will be forthcoming in the short term, weaker credit quality for the sovereign may diminish its ability to provide ongoing support to the local public sector via transfers (about 25% of total RLG revenues in 2021) and cheap funding through budget loans.

-- RATIONALE FOR DOWNGRADE OF TWO GOVERNMENT RELATED ISSUERS' (GRIs') RATINGS

The downgrade to Ca of issuer ratings of SUE Vodokanal of St. Petersburg, and senior unsecured rating of OJSC Western High-Speed Diameter with a negative outlook mirror the downgrade of the rating of the City of St. Petersburg to Ca (negative outlook). It reflects their status as government-related issuers that are fully owned by the St. Petersburg government.

The downgrade of OJSC Western High-Speed Diameter's bond rating also reflects the guarantee that the Russian government provides on its bond principal payments. This guarantee covers overall principal payments and principal acceleration.

-- RATIONALE FOR A NEGATIVE OUTLOOK

The negative outlooks reflect increasing systemic pressures and mirror the negative outlook on the sovereign rating, which in turn reflects the severe risks to macro-economic stability posed by the imposition of severe and co-ordinated sanctions and the financial ramifications from delays to sovereign debt repayments. The negative outlook on the sovereign and sub-sovereigns' ratings also reflect rising concerns about willingness to pay and the unpredictability of government actions which could result in larger losses for investors than is consistent with a Ca rating.

-- FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Given the negative outlook, an upgrade of the sub-sovereign ratings are unlikely in the near term.

Over time, positive rating pressure could arise from a strengthening of the sovereign credit profile, provided that the RLGs' idiosyncratic risks do not increase at the same time.

Conversely, downward pressure could be exerted on the ratings if losses to creditors in case of any sub-sovereign defaults exceed those commensurate with the Ca range.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS

ESG Credit Impact Score for the Russian RLGs is highly negative (CIS-4). The CIS-4 reflects moderately to highly negative exposure to environmental risks (E-3, E-4), moderately to highly negative exposure to social risks (S-3, S-4) and highly negative governance (G-4), with limited capacity for RLGs to mitigate these risks.

Many Russian RLGs are exposed to environmental risk through carbon transition risk given their reliance on the hydrocarbon and petrochemical sectors. In addition, Russian RLGs are also exposed to water management risks, physical climate risk and waste and pollution risk. More frequent heatwaves and more volatile winter conditions are increasing pressure on the infrastructure and/or agriculture sectors of many Russian RLGs.

Exposure to social risks range from S-3 for large economic centers which benefit from positive demographics, higher labour income, strong access to education and good health facilities to S-4 for other regions. The majority of Russian RLGs face high social risks from relatively low income levels which will weaken further due to the sanctions, unfavourable demographic trends which limit potential for growth and diversification of the local economies, and weak access to basic services. Growing social unrest including protests elevate exposure to health and safety risks especially in large economic centers.

The influence of governance on Russian RLGs is highly negative (G-4 issuer profile) reflecting Moody's assessment of governance in Russia, including weak institutions stemming from a lack of checks and balances on the executive, giving rise to the imposition of policies which have severe credit negative implications. The score also reflects weaknesses in the rule of law, property rights and control of corruption. Moody's expects poor governance at the sovereign level to impact RLGs through higher unpredictability in policymaking and potential reductions in government transfers which would negatively impact RLGs' budgets and ability to deliver key services.

The sovereign action required the publication of this credit rating action on a date that deviates from the previously scheduled release date in the sovereign release calendar, published on www.moodys.com.

The specific economic indicators, as required by UK regulation, are not available for these entities. The following national economic indicators are relevant to the sovereign rating, which was used as an input to this credit rating action.

Sovereign Issuer: Russia, Government of

GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 28,053 (2020 Actual) (also known as Per Capita Income)

Real GDP growth (% change): -2.7% (2020 Actual) (also known as GDP Growth)

Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 4.9% (2020 Actual)

Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -4% (2020 Actual) (also known as Fiscal Balance)

Current Account Balance/GDP: 2.4% (2020 Actual) (also known as External Balance)

External debt/GDP: 31.5% (2020 Actual)

Economic resiliency: ba1

Default history: At least one default event (on bonds and/or loans) has been recorded since 1983.

SUMMARY OF MINUTES FROM RATING COMMITTEE

On 4 March 2022, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the Bashkortostan, Republic of; Chuvashia, Republic of; Khanty-Mansiysk AO; Komi, Republic of; Krasnodar, City of; Krasnodar, Krai of; Krasnoyarsk, Krai of; Moscow, City of; Moscow, Oblast of; Nizhniy Novgorod, Oblast; OJSC Western High-Speed Diameter; Omsk, City of; Omsk, Oblast of; SUE Vodokanal of St. Petersburg; Samara, Oblast of; St. Petersburg, City of; Tatarstan, Republic of; Volgograd, City of. The main points raised during the discussion were: the systemic risk in which the issuers operate has materially increased.

The principal methodology used in rating Moscow, City of, Nizhniy Novgorod, Oblast, St. Petersburg, City of, Moscow, Oblast of, Komi, Republic of, Krasnoyarsk, Krai of, Tatarstan, Republic of, Samara, Oblast of, Bashkortostan, Republic of, Krasnodar, Krai of, Khanty-Mansiysk AO, Chuvashia, Republic of, Omsk, Oblast of, Omsk, City of, Volgograd, City of and Krasnodar, City of was Regional and Local Governments published in January 2018 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1091595. The principal methodology used in rating SUE Vodokanal of St. Petersburg and OJSC Western High-Speed Diameter was Government-Related Issuers Methodology published in February 2020 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1186207. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this credit rating action, if applicable.

-- RATINGS AFFECTED

-- RATINGS DOWNGRADED:

..Issuer: Bashkortostan, Republic of

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Downgraded to ca from ba1

.... LT Issuer Rating, Downgraded to Ca from Ba1

..Issuer: Chuvashia, Republic of

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Downgraded to ca from ba2

.... LT Issuer Rating, Downgraded to Ca from Ba2

..Issuer: Khanty-Mansiysk AO

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Downgraded to ca from ba1

.... LT Issuer Rating, Downgraded to Ca from Ba1

..Issuer: Komi, Republic of

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Downgraded to ca from ba3

.... LT Issuer Rating, Downgraded to Ca from Ba3

..Issuer: Krasnodar, City of

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Downgraded to ca from b1

.... LT Issuer Rating, Downgraded to Ca from Ba3

..Issuer: Krasnodar, Krai of

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Downgraded to ca from ba2

.... LT Issuer Rating, Downgraded to Ca from Ba2

..Issuer: Krasnoyarsk, Krai of

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Downgraded to ca from ba2

.... LT Issuer Rating, Downgraded to Ca from Ba2

..Issuer: Moscow, City of

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Downgraded to ca from baa3

.... LT Issuer Rating, Downgraded to Ca from Baa3

..Issuer: Moscow, Oblast of

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Downgraded to ca from ba1

.... LT Issuer Rating, Downgraded to Ca from Ba1

..Issuer: Nizhniy Novgorod, Oblast

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Downgraded to ca from ba2

.... LT Issuer Rating, Downgraded to Ca from Ba2

..Issuer: OJSC Western High-Speed Diameter

.... Backed Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to Ca from Ba2

..Issuer: Omsk, City of

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Downgraded to ca from b2

.... LT Issuer Rating, Downgraded to Ca from B1

..Issuer: Omsk, Oblast of

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Downgraded to ca from b1

.... LT Issuer Rating, Downgraded to Ca from Ba3

..Issuer: Samara, Oblast of

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Downgraded to ca from ba1

.... LT Issuer Rating, Downgraded to Ca from Ba1

.... Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to Ca from Ba1

..Issuer: St. Petersburg, City of

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Downgraded to ca from baa3

.... LT Issuer Rating, Downgraded to Ca from Baa3

..Issuer: SUE Vodokanal of St. Petersburg

.... LT Issuer Rating, Downgraded to Ca from Ba1

..Issuer: Tatarstan, Republic of

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Downgraded to ca from ba1

.... LT Issuer Rating, Downgraded to Ca from Ba1

..Issuer: Volgograd, City of

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Downgraded to ca from b2

.... LT Issuer Rating, Downgraded to Ca from B1

Outlook Actions:

..Issuer: Bashkortostan, Republic of

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Chuvashia, Republic of

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Khanty-Mansiysk AO

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Komi, Republic of

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Krasnodar, City of

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Krasnodar, Krai of

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Krasnoyarsk, Krai of

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Moscow, City of

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Moscow, Oblast of

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Nizhniy Novgorod, Oblast

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Rating Under Review

..Issuer: OJSC Western High-Speed Diameter

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Omsk, City of

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Omsk, Oblast of

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Samara, Oblast of

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Rating Under Review

..Issuer: St. Petersburg, City of

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Rating Under Review

..Issuer: SUE Vodokanal of St. Petersburg

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Tatarstan, Republic of

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Rating Under Review

..Issuer: Volgograd, City of

....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Rating Under Review

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website www.moodys.com.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1288235.

At least one ESG consideration was material to the credit rating action(s) announced and described above.

The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.

The person who approved these credit ratings is Mauro Crisafulli.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

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