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Rating Action:

Moody's downgrades ratings of two Series A Certificates of Su Casita Mexican construction loan securitizations

06 Jun 2012

New York, June 06, 2012 -- Moody's de México S.A. de C.V. (Moody's) has downgraded two Series A certificates of construction loan securitizations sponsored by Hipotecaria Su Casita, S.A. de C.V. Sociedad Financiera de Objeto Múltiple E.N.R. (Su Casita). The underlying collateral consists of construction loans granted to small and medium size homebuilders in Mexico. The downgrades reflect Moody's reduced recovery expectation on the affected certificates.

The complete rating action is as follows:

Originator and Servicer: Hipotecaria Su Casita, S.A. de C.V. Sociedad Financiera de Objeto Múltiple E.N.R.

Issuer: The Bank of New York Mellon, S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, acting solely as trustee.

-- HSCCB 08 Series A Certificates: downgraded to C.mx (sf) from Caa2.mx (sf) (Mexican National Scale) and to C (sf) from Caa2 (sf) (Global Scale, Local Currency).

Issuer: CIBanco, S.A. Institución de Banca Múltiple, acting solely as trustee.

-- HSCCICB 06 Series A Certificates: downgraded to Caa3.mx (sf) from Ba3.mx (Mexican National Scale) and to Caa3 (sf) from B3 (sf) (Global Scale, Local Currency).

RATING RATIONALE

HSCCB 08 SERIES A

The HSCCB 08 Series A's ratings of C.mx (sf) and C (sf) reflect Moody's expectation that the certificates will recover less than 35% of their outstanding balance by their legal final maturity date of March 28, 2014. The certificates have already recovered 70% of their original balance.

This recovery expectation for the outstanding Series A balance considers the sharp deterioration in collections over the past six months. If principal collections over the remaining 23 months are similar to the monthly average of MXP4,364,890 observed over the past six months, Series A would recover less than 35% of its outstanding balance. This recovery is consistent with a rating of C (sf), as described in "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Securities in Default", published in November 2009. Further, given ongoing uncertainty regarding Su Casita's viability, it is possible that collections will deteriorate further if the company's servicing is interrupted or if it allocates fewer resources towards servicing. Also, recent interest collections have not been sufficient to fully cover trust expenses and Series A interest payments, resulting in substantial negative excess spread (averaging -6.9% annualized over the past three months and as a percent of total assets). As a result, the trustee has had to use principal collections and liquid cash assets to pay trust expenses and Series A interest, instead of Series A principal, thereby eroding credit enhancement.

Moody's recovery expectation for Series A also considers the limited success that Su Casita has had in recovering amounts owed on defaulted loans. As of May 2012, Su Casita had foreclosed on just 15% of the securitized loan balance; it has not yet sold these foreclosed properties. In contrast, 49% of the pool was in default with respect to interest payments, while 100% was in default with respect to interest or principal. Moody's notes that Series A benefits from 49% of credit enhancement in the form of subordination and overcollateralization -- Series A's balance of MXP343,880,776 compares to total trust assets of MXP676,421,722, including construction loans and 5% of liquid assets. However, given Su Casita's distressed situation, Moody's believes it is increasingly unlikely that it will recover an amount sufficient to pay a considerable portion of Series A by its legal final maturity in less than two years.

HSCCB 08 Series A's ratings also reflect several risks of the underlying collateral (as of May 2012), including: 1) large loan concentrations, with the top loan representing 26% and the top 5 loans representing 71% of the pool balance, 2) delays in construction, with 18% of projects having completed less than 80% of construction, 3) serious delays in home sales, with 86% of projects having sold less than 25% of the originally planned number of total unit sales, and 4) a large concentration of 62% of vertical housing, which is riskier than horizontal construction since construction must be nearly 100% completed before sales can materialize. A positive is the absence of housing developments in the higher income sector ('residencial plus') that often targets foreign buyers and buyers of second homes.

HSCCICB 06 SERIES A

The HSCCICB 06 Series A's ratings of Caa3.mx (sf) / Caa3 (sf) reflect Moody's expectation that the certificates will recover anywhere from 65% to 80% of their outstanding balance by their legal final maturity date of September 15, 2016. The certificates have already recovered 67% of their highest balance.

This recovery expectation considers the sharp deterioration in collections over the past six months and the transaction's substantial negative excess spread. If the level of principal collections over the next 53 months deteriorates by 20% as compared to the average of MXP13,418,873 observed over the past six months, Series A would likely recover less than 80% of its balance, but likely more than 65%, after taking into account the impact of any negative excess spread (averaging -4.6% annualized over the past three months and as a percent of total assets). This recovery is consistent with a rating of Caa3 (sf), as described in "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Securities in Default". As mentioned earlier, given ongoing uncertainty about Su Casita's viability, it is possible that collections will continue to deteriorate.

Moody's recovery expectation for Series A also considers the limited success that Su Casita has had in recovering amounts owed on defaulted loans. However, Series A's recovery rate assumption of 60-85% considers that the transaction still has four and a half years remaining, thereby affording investors time to seek an alternative servicing arrangement if they believe it would improve the recovery prospects. Given that nearly all the underlying loans are in default, the servicer is now focusing on maximizing recoveries via foreclosure proceedings, deeds-in-lieu of foreclosures or other loss mitigation measures. As of May 2012, Su Casita had successfully foreclosed on just 5% of the pool. In contrast, 65% of the pool was in default with respect to interest payments, while 98% was in default with respect to interest or principal.

Moody's notes that Series A benefits from 46% of credit enhancement in the form of subordination and overcollateralization -- Series A's balance of MXP580,818,552 compares to total trust assets of MXP1,083,006,269, including 7% of liquid cash assets. Given the four and a half years remaining, Moody's believes it is possible for Su Casita or any replacement servicer to recover, on average, 50% of the securitized loans' balances. After taking into account the continued potential for negative excess spread, Moody's believes that Series A could recover between 65% to 80% of its outstanding balance.

HSCCICB 06 Series A's ratings also reflect several risks of the underlying collateral (as of May 2012), including: 1) large loan concentrations, with the top loan representing 26% and the top 5 loans representing 44% of the pool balance, 2) serious delays in construction, with 60% of projects having completed less than 80% of construction, 3) serious delays in home sales, with 69% of projects having sold less than 25% of the originally planned unit sales, 4) a large concentration of 42% of vertical housing, and 5) 32% of projects in the higher income ('residencial plus') sector. The key positive is the relatively long period of time before the legal final maturity, which improves the prospects of recoveries on the securitized loans.

Primary sources of assumption uncertainty are the level of home sales in Mexico and in the underlying housing projects included in the two securitized pools, as well as the amount of recoveries in a foreclosure process. Housing demand can be impacted by regional macroeconomic factors such as rises in unemployment, and the availability of home financing, particularly in the middle, residential and residential plus sectors, where mortgage financing is not as readily available as it is in the low-income housing sector. In addition, demand for a particular housing project can be impacted by factors specific to the project such as the price of the units, quality of construction, amenities and location, among others. Finally, Su Casita does not have much information regarding recoveries from a finalized foreclosure process. Moody's will monitor the transactions and any new information regarding sales and foreclosure proceedings.

With respect to the ratings sensitivity, if Moody's were to increase its recovery rate assumption on the HSCCB 08 Series A certificates to anywhere between 35-65%, instead of the less than 35% that was assumed in today's rating action, Moody's would likely upgrade the certificates by one notch to Ca.mx (sf) from C.mx (sf). If Moody's were to reduce its recovery rate assumption on the HSCCICB 06 Series A certificates to anywhere between 35-65%, instead of the 65-80% that was assumed in today's rating action, Moody's would likely downgrade the certificates from Caa3.mx (sf) to Ca.mx (sf).

The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Approach to Rating Low-Income Residential Construction Loan Securitizations in Mexico" published in August 2009. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Moody's National Scale Ratings (NSRs) are intended as relative measures of creditworthiness among debt issues and issuers within a country, enabling market participants to better differentiate relative risks. NSRs differ from Moody's global scale ratings in that they are not globally comparable with the full universe of Moody's rated entities, but only with NSRs for other rated debt issues and issuers within the same country. NSRs are designated by a ".nn" country modifier signifying the relevant country, as in ".mx" for Mexico. For further information on Moody's approach to national scale ratings, please refer to Moody's Rating Methodology published in March 2011 entitled "Mapping Moody's National Scale Ratings to Global Scale Ratings".

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

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Moody's did not receive or take into account a third party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of these transactions in the past six months.

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Karen Ramallo
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Maria Muller
Senior Vice President
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Moody's downgrades ratings of two Series A Certificates of Su Casita Mexican construction loan securitizations
No Related Data.
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