London, 31 March 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today downgraded to Ba1 from
Baa3 the long-term local currency and foreign currency deposit
ratings of The Standard Bank of South Africa Limited, FirstRand
Bank Limited, ABSA Bank Limited, Nedbank Limited and Investec
Bank Ltd., the five largest banks in South Africa.
The rating agency has also downgraded to Ba2 from Ba1 the long-term
issuer ratings of the holding companies Absa Group Limited and Standard
Bank Group Limited.
The outlook on all the South African banks' long-term deposit ratings
remains negative.
At the same time, Moody's downgraded to Ba2 from Ba1 the long-term
local currency deposit rating of First National Bank of Namibia Limited,
the Namibian subsidiary of South Africa's FirstRand Limited,
and changed the outlook on this rating to stable from negative.
Please click on this link https://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_ARFTL421844
for the List of Affected Credit Ratings. This list is an integral
part of this Press Release and identifies each affected issuer.
The primary driver for today's rating actions is the increasingly difficult
operating environment for banks in South Africa as reflected by Moody's
decision to lower South Africa's Macro Profile score from 'Moderate'
to 'Moderate-'.
A secondary driver of today's rating actions is the weakening credit
profile of the South African government given banks' high sovereign
exposure, mainly in the form of government debt securities held
as part of their prudential liquidity requirements, which links
their credit profiles to that of the government.
These actions follow the downgrade of the South African government's
issuer rating to Ba1 from Baa3 on 27 March 2020. The driver behind
the sovereign rating downgrade is the continuing deterioration in South
Africa's fiscal strength and structurally very weak growth,
which Moody's does not expect current policy settings to address
effectively (refer to the sovereign press release Moody's downgrades South
Africa's ratings to Ba1, maintains negative outlook; https://www.moodys.com/research/--PR_420630).
RATINGS RATIONALE
WEAKENING MACRO PROFILE
The key driver of today's rating actions is the lowering of South Africa's
Macro Profile score to 'Moderate-' from 'Moderate' to reflect the
increasingly challenging operating environment for banks. The lower
Macro Profile score results in the downgrade of the Baseline Credit Assessments
(BCAs) to ba1 from baa3 of the five largest South African banks.
The rating agency expects a GDP contraction of 2.5% in 2020
and growth of 1.1% in 2021, significantly below the
level required to reduce both high poverty and unemployment levels (29.1%,
2019) materially. As the weak economy strains borrower cash flows
and makes it more difficult for borrowers to meet their loan obligations,
Moody's expects a deterioration of the banking system's problem
loan ratio over the next 12 to 18 months, from their average of
3.9% as of year-end 2019, and declining profitability
metrics. However, Moody's expects banks' capitalization
to be broadly stable over the next 12 months as pre-provision income
should be sufficient to absorb banks' rising loan losses.
South Africa's Macro Profile continues to reflect the funding risks
that the South African banking system faces given its high reliance on
short-term domestic institutional deposits. Large institutional
deposits (including interbank deposits), along with debt securities
(primarily held by financial institutions), account for around 34%
of the banking system's funding base, and corporate deposits
18%, as of December-end 2019.
Additionally, the unprecedented deterioration in the global economic
outlook caused by the rapid spread of the coronavirus outbreak will exacerbate
South Africa's economic and fiscal challenges, complicate
the emergence of effective policy responses and negatively impact banks'
credit profiles through asset quality, profitability and liquidity
pressures.
Though operating conditions are challenging, it is important to
note that Moody's does not have any particular governance concern for
the rated South African banks and does not apply any corporate behaviour
adjustments to them.
BANKS' EXPOSURE TO THE SOUTH AFRICAN GOVERNMENT
A secondary driver of today's rating actions is South African banks'
high sovereign exposure, mainly in the form of government debt securities
held as part of their prudential liquidity requirements, which links
their credit profiles to that of the government. The banks' overall
sovereign exposure, including loans to state-related entities,
averages 176% of their capital bases, as of December-end
2019.
In view of the weakening operating environment and the correlation between
sovereign and bank credit risk, the banks' standalone credit profile
and ratings are constrained by the credit profile of the government.
NEGATIVE OUTLOOK REFLECTS SOVEREIGN OUTLOOK
The negative outlook of the South African banks' ratings reflects our
expectation that the weak economic environment will increase the downside
risks for banks' credit profiles. The challenging operating environment
will translate to higher impairments for the banks; exerting negative
pressure on revenues and testing the resilient performance they have demonstrated
in recent years. However, Moody's does not anticipate that
the asset quality deterioration will materially compromise banks'
capitalisation. The negative outlook on the banks is aligned with
the outlook on the sovereign rating, which reflects downside risks
around economic growth and fiscal metrics, that could lead to an
even more rapid and sizeable increase in the debt burden, further
lowering debt affordability and potentially weakening South Africa's
access to funding.
NATIONAL SCALE RATINGS (NSR)
There has also been a recalibration of South Africa's NSR mappings,
triggered by the downgrade of South Africa's government bond rating.
Moody's NSRs are intended as relative measures of creditworthiness among
debt issues and issuers within a country, enabling market participants
to better differentiate relative risks.
INDIVIDUAL BANKS' MAIN RATING DRIVERS
- The Standard Bank of South Africa Limited (SBSA) and Standard
Bank Group Limited (SBG)
Moody's downgraded the BCA of SBSA to ba1 from baa3 primarily as
a result of the increasingly difficult operating conditions, and
our expectation that the bank's profitability and asset quality
metrics will deteriorate over the next 12 months. However,
SBSA's ba1 BCA continues to reflect our expectation of resilient capital
buffers despite an increasing cost of risk on account of the challenging
operating environment. We also expect that the bank's robust risk-management
framework will continue to be supportive of its solvency profile.
The bank's credit loss ratio increased marginally over 2019 and
the bank's nonperforming loans (NPLs) ratio stood at 3.6%
as of December-end 2019. SBSA's reported Common Equity
Tier 1 (CET1) ratio was 13.2% as of December-end
2019, which compares favourably to its South African peers.
SBG's issuer rating of Ba2 is positioned one notch lower than the deposit
ratings of its fully owned main banking subsidiary SBSA, reflecting
the structural subordination of SBG's creditors to those of SBSA.
- FirstRand Bank Limited (FRB)
Moody's downgraded the BCA of FRB to ba1 from baa3 primarily as
a result of the increasingly difficult operating conditions, and
our expectation that the bank's profitability and asset quality
metrics will deteriorate over the next 12 months. However,
FRB's ba1 BCA continues to reflect its solid franchise in the South African
banking sector. The bank's BCA also takes into account our
expectation that the bank's (1) capital buffers will remain resilient;
and (2) profitability will continue to compare favourably with that of
its similarly rated local peers, despite some negative pressure.
The bank's credit loss ratio increased to 107bps in the six months
ended 2019 up from 93bps in the same period in 2018 and the bank's
reported nonperforming loans (NPLs) ratio stood at 4.2%
as of December-end 2019. FRB's reported Common Equity
Tier 1 (CET1) ratio was 13.7% as of December-end
2019, which is the highest amongst its South African peers.
- ABSA Bank Limited and Absa Group Limited
Moody's downgraded the BCA of ABSA Bank Limited to ba1 from baa3
primarily as a result of the increasingly difficult operating conditions,
and our expectation that the bank's profitability and asset quality
metrics will deteriorate over the next 12 months. However,
ABSA Bank Limited's ba1 BCA continues to capture its sound risk management
practices and ability to maintain a solid earnings generating capacity.
The bank's reported nonperforming loans (NPLs) ratio stood at 4.5%
as of December-end 2019. The ratings also capture its adequate
capital buffers (with a core Tier 1 ratio of 11.4% as of
December 2019, on a normalized basis), but which remain below
international peers.
Absa Group Limited's issuer rating of Ba2 is positioned one notch lower
than the deposit ratings of its fully owned main banking subsidiary,
ABSA Bank Limited, reflecting the structural subordination of Absa
Group Limited's creditors to those of ABSA Bank Limited.
- Nedbank Limited (Nedbank)
Moody's downgraded the BCA of Nedbank Limited to ba1 from baa3 primarily
as a result of the increasingly difficult operating conditions,
and our expectation that the bank's profitability and asset quality
metrics will deteriorate over the next 12 months. However,
Nedbank's BCA of ba1 continues to reflect the bank's solid local franchise
and material investments in digitisation and information technology and
its resilient capitalisation (a reported Common Equity Tier 1 capital
ratio of 11.5%, as of December 2019). Nedbank's
asset quality metrics deteriorated only marginally over 2019 with NPLs
rising to 3.6% as of December-end 2019 from 3.5%
as of December-end 2018.
- Investec Bank Ltd. (IBL)
Moody's downgraded the BCA of IBL to ba1 from baa3 primarily as
a result of the increasingly difficult operating conditions, and
our expectation that the bank's profitability and asset quality
metrics will deteriorate over the next 12 months. However,
IBL's ba1 BCA continues to reflect the bank's resilient capitalisation,
strong liquidity and good asset quality (NPLs accounted for a modest 1.3%
of gross loans as of September-end 2019). These strengths
are moderated the bank's credit concentrations to both commercial
and residential property-related borrowers; although these
sectors have historically performed well. The bank's reported CET1
ratio was 13% as of September 2019, and its reported leverage
ratio of 7.8% is one of the highest among its local peers.
- First National Bank of Namibia Limited (FNB Namibia)
Moody's downgraded to Ba2 from Ba1 the long-term local -currency
deposit ratings of First National Bank of Namibia Limited as a result
of the increasingly challenging operating conditions in South Africa given
the negative implications these have for the credit profile of South Africa's
FirstRand Limited, FNB Namibia's parent, in its capacity
as affiliate support provider.
FNB Namibia's Ba2 local currency deposit rating incorporates one
notch of rating uplift from the bank's BCA of ba3, based on our
view of a high probability of support from the Government of Namibia (Ba2,
stable), in case of need. Additionally, we also continue
to expect a very high willingness of support from FNB Namibia's
ultimate parent, South Africa's FirstRand Limited, in a stress
scenario. FNB Namibia's BCA, its standalone credit strength,
of ba3 captures our expectation that the bank's strong domestic
franchise will continue to support its earnings generating capacity and
robust capital ratios, both of which will continue to provide a
large buffer against loan losses. As of June-end 2019,
the bank's reported CET1 ratio was 17.0% and return
on assets was 2.42%. These strengths are moderated
by our expectation that NPLs will continue to deteriorate over the next
12 months (NPLs increased to 2.71% as of June-end
2019 from 2.30% as of December-end 2018).
The stable outlook of FNB Namibia's long-term deposit ratings
reflects our view that FNB Namibia's asset risks and profitability metrics
will stay within the thresholds assumed by its current ratings despite
the deteriorating trend witnessed in both metrics over the last 18 months.
The stable outlook is aligned with the stable outlook on the Namibian
sovereign's issuer rating.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks Methodology
published in November 2019 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1147865.
Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com
for a copy of this methodology.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
Any future deterioration in the creditworthiness of South Africa or Namibia
would exert downward pressure on the banks' ratings in that system,
in view of their sizeable holdings of sovereign debt securities held as
part of their prudential liquidity requirements. In addition,
the banks' ratings could be downgraded if operating conditions worsen,
leading to significantly higher loan loss provisions that prompt deterioration
in the banks' earnings and capital metrics that exceed the rating agency's
expectations.
For the South African banks, upwards momentum of the banks' ratings
is currently constrained by weak operating conditions in South Africa
as reflected by the negative outlook. For FNB Namibia, any
upward rating momentum is also constrained by operating conditions in
South Africa, where its ultimate parent and affiliate support provider,
FirstRand Limited, resides. However, for FNB Namibia,
an upgrade in the bank's ratings could be triggered by an upgrade of the
issuer ratings of the Namibian government, as a support provider,
combined with improvements in the financial profile of the bank.
Moody's National Scale Credit Ratings (NSRs) are intended as relative
measures of creditworthiness among debt issues and issuers within a country,
enabling market participants to better differentiate relative risks.
NSRs differ from Moody's global scale credit ratings in that they are
not globally comparable with the full universe of Moody's rated entities,
but only with NSRs for other rated debt issues and issuers within the
same country. NSRs are designated by a ".nn"
country modifier signifying the relevant country, as in ".za"
for South Africa. For further information on Moody's approach to
national scale credit ratings, please refer to Moody's Credit rating
Methodology published in May 2016 entitled "Mapping National Scale Ratings
from Global Scale Ratings". While NSRs have no inherent absolute
meaning in terms of default risk or expected loss, a historical
probability of default consistent with a given NSR can be inferred from
the GSR to which it maps back at that particular point in time.
For information on the historical default rates associated with different
global scale rating categories over different investment horizons,
please see https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1216309.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The List of Affected Credit Ratings includes additional disclosures that
vary with regard to some of the ratings. Please click on this https://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_ARFTL421844
for the List of Affected Credit Ratings. This list is an integral
part of this Press Release and provides, for each of the credit
ratings covered, Moody's disclosures on the following items:
• Releasing Office
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and
sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and
Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's
Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.
For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of
debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures
in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the
same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant
to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing
ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings
issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain
regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the
support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action
for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's
credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement
provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional
rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may
be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each
case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior
to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have
affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings
tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action,
and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action,
the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated
agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.
These ratings include both solicited and unsolicited ratings. As
a result, Moody's considers the Rated Entity and/or any Related
Third Party to be participating in the ratings process, thereby
providing general access to internal documents and management.
Please refer to the List of Affected Credit Ratings for more details regarding
solicitation. For additional information, please refer to
Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit
Ratings available on www.moodys.com.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social
and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1133569.
The below contact information is provided for information purposes only.
Please see the ratings tab of the issuer page at www.moodys.com,
for each of the ratings covered, Moody's disclosures on the
lead rating analyst and the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the ratings.
The relevant office for each credit rating is identified in "Debt/deal
box" on the Ratings tab in the Debt/Deal List section of each issuer/entity
page of the website.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Akin Majekodunmi
VP-Sr Credit Officer
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Sean Marion
MD - Financial Institutions
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
