USD 44.1 million of debt securities affected
New York, January 18, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service announced today that it has downgraded the rating
of one class of notes issued by Commodore CDO II Ltd. The class
of notes affected by today's rating action is as follows:
U.S.$186,000,000 Class A-1MM Floating
Rate Notes Due December 2038 (current outstanding balance of $44,116,113),
Downgraded to Caa3(sf); previously on March 12, 2009 Downgraded
to Caa2(sf).
RATINGS RATIONALE
According to Moody's, the rating downgrade today is the result of
deterioration in the credit quality of the underlying portfolio.
Such credit deterioration is observed through numerous factors,
including a decrease in the transaction's overcollateralization
ratios, an increase in the dollar amount of defaulted securities,
and an increase in the Moody's WARF. Based on the latest trustee
report dated December 2011, the Class A, Class B and Class
C overcollateralization ratios are reported at 64.53%,
29.62% and 27.11%, respectively,
versus March 2009 levels of 108.15%, 67.55%
and 63.65%, respectively. Defaulted securities
have increased from $41.8 million in March 2009 to $49.9
million in December 2011. Additionally, the Trustee reported
a WARF of 1370 in March 2009 compared to a WARF of 3409 in December 2011.
Commodore CDO II Ltd. is a collateralized debt obligation backed
primarily by a portfolio of RMBS, CMBS and Home Equity Loans originated
from 2003 to 2006.
The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Approach to
Rating SF CDOs" published in November 2010. Please see the Credit
Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
Moody's applied the Monte Carlo simulation framework within CDOROMv2.8
to model the loss distribution for SF CDOs. Within this framework,
defaults are generated so that they occur with the frequency indicated
by the adjusted default probability pool (the default probability associated
with the current rating multiplied by the Resecuritization Stress) for
each credit in the reference. Specifically, correlated defaults
are simulated using a normal (or "Gaussian") copula model that applies
the asset correlation framework. Recovery rates for defaulted credits
are generated by applying within the simulation the distributional assumptions,
including correlation between recovery values. Together,
the simulated defaults and recoveries across each of the Monte Carlo scenarios
define the loss distribution for the reference pool.
Once the loss distribution for the collateral has been calculated,
each collateral loss scenario derived through the CDOROM loss distribution
is associated with the interest and principal received by the rated liability
classes via a CDOEdge cash-flow model. The cash flow model
takes into account the following: collateral cash flows, the
transaction covenants, the priority of payments (waterfall) for
interest and principal proceeds received from portfolio assets,
reinvestment assumptions, the timing of defaults, interest-rate
scenarios and foreign exchange risk (if present). The Expected
Loss (EL) for each tranche is the weighted average of losses to each tranche
across all the scenarios, where the weight is the likelihood of
the scenario occurring. Moody's defines the loss as the shortfall
in the present value of cash flows to the tranche relative to the present
value of the promised cash flows. The present values are calculated
using the promised tranche coupon rate as the discount rate. For
floating rate tranches, the discount rate is based on the promised
spread over Libor and the assumed Libor scenario.
Moody's notes that in arriving at its ratings of ABS CDOs,
there exist a number of sources of uncertainty, operating both on
a macro level and on a transaction-specific level. Among
the general macro uncertainties are those surrounding future housing prices,
pace of residential mortgage foreclosures, loan modification and
refinancing, unemployment rate and interest rates.
Moody's rating action today factors in a number of sensitivity analyses
and stress scenarios, discussed below. Results are shown
in terms of the number of notches' difference versus the current model
output, where a positive difference
corresponds to lower expected loss, assuming that all other factors
are held equal:
Moody's Caa-rated assets notched up by 2 rating notches:
Class A-1MM: + 0
Moody's Caa-rated assets notched down by 2 rating notches:
Class A-1MM: - 0
Further information on Moody's analysis of this transaction is available
on www.moodys.com
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
Although this credit rating has been issued in a non-EU country
which has not been recognized as endorsable at this date, this credit
rating is deemed "EU qualified by extension" and may still
be used by financial institutions for regulatory purposes until 31 January
2012. ESMA may extend the use of credit ratings for regulatory
purposes in the European Community for three additional months,
until 30 April 2012, if ESMA decides that exceptional circumstances
arise that may imply potential market disruption or financial instability.
Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's
office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following:
parties involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential
and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party
assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets
or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction
in the past six months.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated
entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing
a rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it
uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's
considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent
third-party sources. However, Moody's is not
an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate
information received in the rating process.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com
for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com
for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and
for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist
between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of
entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to
the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A
member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member
of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation;
however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process
page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning
of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time
before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not
be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that
it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information
that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page
on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Oswald Espinoza
Associate Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Ramon O. Torres
Senior Vice President
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's downgrades the ratings of notes issued by Commodore CDO II Ltd, an SF CDO