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Rating Action:

Moody's downgrades three Cypriot banks' ratings

09 Oct 2012

Actions conclude review

Limassol, October 09, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service has today taken actions on three Cypriot banks that reflect, to differing degrees, the severity of the banks' capital shortfalls in the context of Moody's central expectations of further and much sharper deterioration in asset quality than anticipated earlier this year. Concerns about weakening funding and liquidity also contributed to our reassessment.

The rating actions also take into account Moody's expectations of a high likelihood of support from the Cypriot authorities, in collaboration with external parties.

Today's actions conclude Moody's review initiated on 12 June 2012.

The affected banks are:

-Bank of Cyprus Public Company Limited (BoC): The standalone credit assessment has been lowered to caa3 (mapped from an E standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR)) from b3/E+; the deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings have been downgraded to Caa1, with negative outlook, from B2.

-Cyprus Popular Bank Public Co Ltd (CPB): The standalone credit assessment has been lowered to caa3 from caa1 within the E BFSR category; the deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings have been downgraded to Caa1, with negative outlook, from B3.

-Hellenic Bank Ltd (Hellenic): The standalone credit assessment has been lowered to caa2/E from b2/E+; the deposit ratings have been downgraded to B3, with negative outlook, from B1.

A full list of affected ratings is provided at the end of the press release.

RATINGS RATIONALE -- STANDALONE RATINGS

Overall, Moody's lowering of the standalone ratings reflects, to differing degrees, the severity of the banks' capital shortfalls, owing to the rating agency's expectations of acute asset-quality deterioration, and the funding pressures faced by the banks.

FIRST DRIVER --- CAPITAL SHORTFALLS

Moody's believes that the banks' capital shortfalls will be severe, given their currently thin capital buffers and the rating agency's expectation that very large credit losses will emerge from the bank's lending exposures in Greece and Cyprus. In terms of capital buffers, Moody's estimates CPB's core Tier 1 at 4.3% (including the €1.8 billion capital increase subscribed mainly by the government) as of June 2012, while BoC reported a core Tier 1 of 5.1% (excluding the Convertible Enhanced Capital Securities) and Hellenic reported a pro-forma core Tier 1 of 8.3% (including the capital increase completed in July) for the same period.

Despite the differences in the banks' current capital levels, Moody's expects that all three banks will require large recapitalisations, to varying degrees, to build-up their core Tier 1 capital to robust levels under the rating agency's central scenario, which assumes (i) a significant deterioration in asset quality over the next four quarters, and (ii) a core Tier 1 target of 10%, which is similar to levels seen in certain countries receiving support packages. In aggregate, Moody's estimates that the banks will require more than EUR8 billion under its central scenario. Nevertheless, the differentiation between the banks' standalone ratings reflects Moody's expectation of Hellenic's much lower capital needs relative to the severe capital shortfalls for BoC and CPB.

Moreover, the rating agency also notes that without significant ring-fencing, the banks' capital shortfalls would increase sharply if the risk of Greece exiting the euro area were to crystallise.

SECOND DRIVER --- FURTHER DETERIORATION IN ASSET QUALITY

The second driver, which is a component of the first, is Moody's expectation of further and acute deterioration in the banks' weak asset quality, driven by the adverse operating environment in their primary markets, Cyprus and Greece. According to CPB's and BoC's H1 2012 financial statements, there was a sharp acceleration in non-performing loan (NPL) formation in Greece, which Moody's believes will continue impacting banks' asset quality in proportion to their relative lending exposure in Greece. According to the banks' financial statements, gross loans in Greece account for around 44% of gross loans for CPB, 34% for BoC and 17% for Hellenic. Furthermore, the rating agency expects a very material acceleration in the deterioration of domestic asset quality, driven by the banks' significant exposures to the depressed real-estate sector and individual borrowers' weakening capacity to service their debt, owing to rising unemployment and the effects of the government's proposed austerity measures.

As of June 2012, group NPLs increased to 22.3% for CPB (from 13.9% at December 2011), 14.2% for BoC (10.2% as of December 2011) and 15.8% for Hellenic (13.2% as of December 2011), according to the banks' financial statements. Moody's notes that these figures exclude loans in arrears for over 90 days that are fully covered by tangible collateral, for which the rating agency maintains concerns regarding recovery values in the current depressed market. Furthermore, Moody's notes that the significant build-up of rescheduled loans also signals the potential for further asset-quality pressure in the near term.

THIRD DRIVER --- LIQUIDITY AND FUNDING PROFILES UNDER PRESSURE FROM DEPOSIT OUTFLOWS

Although the funding profiles of the three banks vary, Moody's expects deposit outflows to continue both in Greece and in foreign-owned corporate entities' deposits sourced in Cyprus, which will further weaken the banks' funding profiles and pressure their liquidity buffers.

The funding positions of BoC and CPB have weakened significantly owing to deposit outflows, pressuring their liquidity positions. According to the banks' financial statements, CPB's deposit base has declined by 30% over the 18-month period to June 2012 (not adjusted for the sale of foreign subsidiaries), whilst BoC's deposit base declined by 14% (11% when adjusted for the sale of its Australian subsidiary). Hellenic has maintained a stronger liquidity position compared with its rated domestic peers, which is one of the factors -- together with the lower estimated capital shortfall -- for its higher standalone rating. Hellenic's deposits increased by 7% over the same period and the bank maintains a high liquidity cushion with cash and bank placements accounting for around 32% of assets. Nevertheless, all Cypriot banks' deposit bases remain vulnerable to changes in depositor sentiment, as a high portion of deposits are in Greece and sourced in Cyprus from foreign-owned corporates.

HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SYSTEMIC SUPPORT EMBEDDED IN DEBT AND DEPOSIT RATINGS

In Moody's view, the government's capacity to provide support to the banks is very limited. However, Moody's expects that support would be forthcoming from external parties, specifically the Troika (European Commission, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund) via the Cypriot government.

Although the timing and magnitude of such support remains uncertain, Moody's acknowledges the ongoing negotiations to establish a support package for Cyprus. Accordingly, Moody's incorporates two notches of uplift in the Cypriot banks' deposit and senior debt ratings, which reflects the balance between the constrained domestic capacity of the Cypriot government to provide support to the banking system and the additional resources Moody's expects will be made available to Cyprus in the context of its membership in the European Monetary Union.

WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS DOWN/UP

The negative outlooks reflect the risk of asset-quality pressures beyond our central scenario, given the challenging operating environment. An increase in the probability of Greece exiting the euro area, and/or a material risk that external support would not be sufficient to stabilise the banks, would exert downwards pressure on the ratings.

The restructuring and removal of non-performing assets from banks' balance sheets, in conjunction with significant strengthening of the banks' capital buffers to absorb future asset-quality deterioration and to withstand a potential Greek exit from the euro area, could, over time, exert upwards pressure on the ratings.

List of affected ratings:

Bank of Cyprus Public Co Ltd:

- Deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings downgraded to Caa1/Not-Prime from B2/Not-Prime

- Subordinated debt rating downgraded to (P)C from (P)Caa1

- Junior subordinated notes rating downgraded to (P)C from (P)Caa2

- Standalone BFSR downgraded to E/caa3 from E+/b3

- The outlook on the senior debt and deposit ratings is negative. The BFSR, subordinated and junior subordinated debt ratings do not have an outlook assigned.

Cyprus Popular Bank Public Co Ltd:

- Deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings downgraded to Caa1/Not-Prime from B3/Not-Prime

- Subordinated debt rating downgraded to C from Ca

- Standalone credit assesment lowered to caa3 from caa1 (within the E BFSR category);

The senior debt and deposit ratings have a negative outlook. The BFSR and subordinated debt ratings do not have an outlook assigned.

Egnatia Finance plc (the funding subsidiary of Cyprus Popular Bank):

- Senior unsecured debt rating downgraded to (P)Caa1 from (P)B3

- Subordinated debt rating downgraded to (P)C from (P)Ca

The senior debt ratings have a negative outlook. The subordinated debt ratings do not have an outlook.

Hellenic Bank Public Co Ltd:

- Deposit ratings downgraded to B3/Not-Prime from B1/Not-Prime

- Standalone BFSR downgraded to E/caa2 from E+/b2

The deposit ratings have a negative outlook. The BFSR does not have an outlook assigned.

METHODOLOGY USED

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Moody's Consolidated Global Bank Rating Methodology published in June 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entities or their designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

Information sources used to prepare each of the ratings are the following: parties involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entities, obligations or credits satisfactory for the purposes of issuing these ratings.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning the ratings is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible Service(s) to the rated entities or their related third parties within the two years preceding the credit rating action. Please see the special report "Ancillary or other permissible services provided to entities rated by MIS's EU credit rating agencies" on the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.

Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.

The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Melina Skouridou
Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Cyprus Ltd.
Kanika Business Centre
319 28th October Avenue
PO Box 53205
Limassol CY 3301
Cyprus
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Yves J Lemay
MD - Banking
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Cyprus Ltd.
Kanika Business Centre
319 28th October Avenue
PO Box 53205
Limassol CY 3301
Cyprus
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's downgrades three Cypriot banks' ratings
No Related Data.
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