Moody's lowers American Express to A2; outlook negative
Approximately $75 Billion of Debt Securities Affected
New York, October 20, 2008 -- Moody's Investors Service lowered the Long-term Senior ratings
of financial services holding company American Express Company ("Amex")
to A2 from A1, and also lowered the ratings of American Express
Travel Related Services ("TRS") and its rated operating subsidiaries to
A1 from Aa3. The Prime-1 short-term ratings for Amex
and rated subsidiaries were affirmed. The rating outlook for Amex
and its subsidiaries is negative. Today's rating actions
conclude the rating review of Amex that was initiated on August 7,
2008.
The lower ratings reflect Amex's negative asset quality trends and
lending exposures, particularly within geographic markets in the
United States that have experienced sharp home price declines.
Amex has maintained its 'spend-centric' strategic model,
which emphasizes non-interest income from fees relating to customer
spending, as opposed to interest income from revolving credit balances;
however, the company's lending exposures have grown significantly
over time. With this shift, eroding economic conditions across
the US will likely pose a greater burden on Amex's asset quality
and profitability.
Broad economic weakness in the US, heavy consumer debt burdens,
and home price erosion have also combined to dampen Amex's card-member
spending growth in the US. Although Amex has made strides to diversify
its spending mix away from its historical reliance on corporate travel
and entertainment, the company's revenue and earnings profile
remains heavily weighted towards the US market in terms of both spending
volumes and credit exposure.
Moody's said that the downgrade also reflects the potential vulnerability
within Amex's current market-funded business model.
This vulnerability has always been inherent within Amex and similar institutions.
However, the current credit crisis has highlighted the risk to firms
that rely on wholesale funding, both in terms of funding availability
and cost.
The rating agency noted that Amex's approach to funding and liquidity
management has been sound and strengthened over time, with the firm's
goal of being able to fund Amex for over a year following the loss of
access to unsecured and secured debt markets. Amex has established
a $20 billion liquidity portfolio, termed out debt,
added a $5 billion bank conduit funding facility, and has
demonstrated consistent access to unsecured funding and securitization
markets throughout most of the market downturn.
Further enhancing contingent liquidity, on October 3, 2008
Amex's banks, American Express Centurion Bank and American Express
Bank, FSB were approved by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
to access the Fed's discount window, if necessary, by pledging
eligible collateral, including credit card receivables. These
receivables are also eligible collateral for the Fed's Term Auction Facility
(TAF) program. Amex should be able to access $14 billion
of term-CP via the Treasury's new CP Funding Facility,
and its banks should be able to fund up to $8.8 billion
of 3-year term debt via the Fed's Temporary Liquidity Guarantee
Program. Though these two funding programs are temporary,
they nonetheless should prove to be highly valuable for Amex as the company
manages through the current market dislocation and continues to reposition
its funding mix. Their availability during this period is supportive
of the ratings at the current levels. As a key element of ongoing
analysis, Moody's will evaluate Amex's future plans
to manage liquidity risk in anticipation of the elimination of these extraordinary
official forms of liquidity support.
Moody's said that the negative outlook reflects Amex's exposure
to a potentially severe consumer-led economic downturn in the US
and its potential effects on the firm's asset quality, customer
spending volumes, and profitability. Given the severity of
the current housing and credit crisis, the ability to forecast the
future performance of Amex is very limited. For the outlook to
return to stable, Amex will have to continue to generate asset quality
and profitability levels consistent with the firm's performance
in past economic downturns. An elevation in credit costs outside
of historical peaks and that is not effectively mitigated by offsetting
cost reductions or revenue gains could result in a negative rating action.
The rating agency noted that Amex's credit profile and ratings have
been based upon the firm's strong brand-name franchise and
fee-driven revenue strategy that have allowed the firm to generate
consistently solid profitability and cash-flow, a high proportion
of non-spread income, and industry leading asset quality.
Internal capital generation has also been strong, with Amex retaining
ample capital to support its balance sheet and provide flexibility.
Amex has continued to perform acceptably well on an absolute basis and
relative to other market-funded finance companies and commercial
banks. To this point, Amex today reported Q3-08 results
that included $861million of net income from continuing operations
on net revenues of $7.2 billion. This level of net
operating income is noteworthy given the firm's 51% year-over-year
increase in loss provisions.
The current ratings will require that Amex is able to illustrate that
these franchise characteristics can endure through this severe credit
cycle.
The following ratings were affirmed:
American Express Company
Commercial Paper P-1
American Express Travel Related Svcs Co., Inc.
Commercial Paper P-1
Other Short Term P-1
American Express Bank, FSB
Short-term Bank Deposits P-1
American Express Credit Corporation
Bkd Commercial Paper P-1
Other Short Term P-1
American Express Centurion Bank
ST Bank Note Pgm P-1
Short-term Bank Deposits P-1
The following ratings were downgraded:
American Express Company
Issuer Rating from A1 to A2
Senior Unsecured from A1 to A2
Subordinate Shelf from (P)A2 to (P)A3
Preferred Shelf from (P)A3 to (P) Baa1
American Express Travel Related Svcs Co., Inc.
Issuer Rating from Aa3 to A1
Senior Unsecured from Aa3 to A1
Subordinate MTN from A1 to A2
American Express Bank, FSB
Long-term Bank Deposits from Aa3 to A1
Bank Financial Strength from B to B-
Issuer Rating from Aa3 to A1
American Express Credit Corporation
Issuer Rating from Aa3 to A1
Senior Unsecured from Aa3 to A1
Subordinate MTN from A1 to A2
American Express Centurion Bank
Bank Deposits from Aa3 to A1
Bank Financial Strength from B to B-
Issuer Rating from Aa3 to A1
Senior Unsecured from Aa3 to A1
Subordinate MTN from A1 to A2
American Express Company is a New York-based holding company that
is comprised of a group of operating and financing subsidiaries that operates
in the global payment-services, charge card, credit
card and travel services industries. As of September 30,
2008, American Express reported total managed assets of $157
billion and shareholders equity of $13 billion.
New York
Blaine A. Frantz
Senior Vice President
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
New York
Curt Beaudouin
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653