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Announcement:

Moody's lowers the highest achievable structured finance ratings in Italy, Portugal and Spain following the recent sovereign rating actions

Global Credit Research - 17 Feb 2012

Other credit issues add to negative pressure on structured finance ratings

London, 17 February 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service has today lowered the highest achievable structured finance rating in (i) Italy, to Aa2(sf) from Aaa(sf); (ii) Portugal, to Baa1(sf) from A2(sf); and (iii) Spain, to Aa2(sf) from Aaa(sf). The lowering of these highest achievable structured finance ratings was prompted by the downgrade of the ratings of those sovereigns on 13 February 2012 (please see "Moody's adjusts ratings of 9 European sovereigns to capture downside risks" for more information).

POTENTIAL SCOPE AND LIKELY IMPACT: ALL AFFECTED STRUCTURED FINANCE TRANSACTIONS WILL BE REVIEWED

Moody's decision to lower the highest achievable structured finance rating will likely impact all outstanding (i) Italian and Spanish structured finance tranches currently rated above Aa2(sf); and (ii) Portuguese tranches currently rated above Baa1(sf), except in very limited circumstances. The rating agency will announce information on the specific transactions impacted as soon as practicable.

HIGHEST ACHIEVABLE STRUCTURED FINANCE RATINGS CHANGED

The highest achievable structured finance ratings (i) are set at or below the relevant country ceiling except in very limited circumstances; and (ii) will generally not exceed the sovereign bond rating by more than a limited number of notches.

The highest structured finance rating achievable is the rating beyond which structural features or credit enhancement provided by any domestic party cannot mitigate the impact of severe events and the level of uncertainty surrounding such events. The changes that have been announced reflect an increase in the probability of severe economic stress or even default, which, although in most cases extremely low, create a level of uncertainty that is inconsistent with structured finance rating levels higher than the new levels that have been set. The highest achievable structured finance rating may be revised further downwards if the likelihood of those events were to increase.

A simultaneous decline in a government's fiscal position and in the strength of its banking system can contribute to (i) a significant deterioration in asset performance; (ii) increased market value risk; (iii) reduced financing availability; and (iv) a decrease in the number of viable transaction counterparties in structured finance transactions.

Currently, the highest structured finance rating that Moody's expects to be achievable is B1(sf) in Greece, A1(sf) in Ireland, Aa2(sf) in Italy, Baa1(sf) in Portugal, and Aa2(sf) in Spain, whilst the respective sovereign ratings are Ca, Ba1, A3, Ba3 and A3. In other European Union (EU) countries, Aaa(sf) is, in principle, presently achievable. Although some exceptions may be found, the highest achievable rating for covered bond programmes is generally Aa2 in Italy, Baa1 in Portugal and Aa2 in Spain, regardless of any higher level presented by the Timely Payment Indicator cap.

MINIMUM CREDIT ENHANCEMENT LEVELS MAY BE REDUCED

In several countries that are subject to unusual and rapidly evolving financial and economic stress, Moody's has established minimum levels of credit enhancement, which, together with a robust structure, are needed to qualify for the highest structured finance rating achievable in those countries. In light of the new highest achievable structured finance ratings, Moody's is currently reviewing the commensurate minimum credit enhancement levels necessary to achieve the new lower ratings and will make an announcement in due course.

Moody's bases minimum credit enhancement levels on a determination of how severely asset performance might deteriorate during a severe event, factoring in (i) likely volatility of performance; (ii) projected recoveries for the asset type during a future period of stress; (iii) the rating of the sovereign; and (iv) the transaction ratings. Given the significant challenges faced by the governments of Italy, Portugal and Spain, and the weak macroeconomic outlook in those regions, the debt-repayment capacity of consumers and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) will become increasingly strained. Losses from additional risks such as set-off, commingling or other deal specific factors will need to be considered over and above these minimum levels.

Moody's discusses the relationship between sovereign and structured finance ratings in its rating implementation guidance "How Sovereign Credit Quality May Affect Other Ratings," published February 2012 and its special report "Assessing the Impact of the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis on Structured Finance Transactions," published in April 2011.

How Sovereign Credit Quality May Affect Other Ratings

http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_139495

OTHER DEVELOPMENTS NEGATIVELY AFFECTING EUROPEAN STRUCTURED FINANCE TRANSACTIONS IN THE NEAR FUTURE DESCRIBED

Moody's has identified several other developments that could exert negative pressure on European structured finance ratings in the near future.

On 15 February 2012, Moody's placed on review for downgrade the ratings of multiple European and Global banks, and Securities Firms with Global Capital Markets Operations (please see "Moody's Reviews Ratings for European Banks" and "Moody's Reviews Ratings for Banks and Securities Firms with Global Capital Markets Operations" for more information). The creditworthiness and therefore the ability of entities eligible to act as transaction parties may decline following the conclusion of the rating agency's review. Depending upon the magnitude of any downgrade of the relevant transaction counterparties (such as servicers, cash managers, liquidity banks, account banks or swap counterparties), the effect on the related structured finance transactions could be significant. Any deterioration in the credit quality of transaction parties may also lead to increased risks of set-off and commingling in some transactions.

Furthermore, as discussed in Moody's special report "Rating Euro Area Governments Through Extraordinary Times -- An Updated Summary," published in October 2011, the rating agency is reassessing the euro area's single 'country ceiling,' which currently implies that the debt of any euro area entity, regardless of its country of domicile, could potentially achieve a Aaa rating (unless it is subject to the highest achievable ratings as described above or other ratings ceilings imposed for analytical reasons). Moody's will consider reintroducing individual country ceilings for some or all euro area members, which could affect further the maximum structured finance rating achievable in those countries.

Moody's is also continuing to consider the impact of the deterioration of sovereigns' financial condition and the resultant asset portfolio deterioration on mezzanine and junior tranches of structured finance transactions.

ALL AFFECTED EUROPEAN STRUCTURED FINANCE TRANSACTIONS WILL BE REVIEWED

Moody's will review all ratings of affected structured finance transactions and announce any rating actions in the coming weeks, in the following order:

* Structured finance ratings that are pass-through to the recently downgraded sovereign's ratings or the ratings of affected banks

* Structured finance ratings that are directly linked to the banks' ratings that are affected by rating actions

* Structured finance ratings in Italy, Portugal and Spain, including those tranches rated below the highest achievable structured finance rating

* In the event of transaction counterparty downgrades, structured finance transactions that are indirectly exposed to the credit quality of counterparties performing operational roles or providing financial support

Moody's will continue to approach its credit analyses of structured finance transactions on a case-by-case basis for each country that comes under stress. While conditions that weaken the sovereign, the economy and banking sector can be similar, the consequences for structured finance transactions are never identical.

Henry Charpentier
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Espana, S.A.
Calle Principe de Vergara, 131, 6 Planta
Madrid 28002
Spain
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Katherine Frey
MD - EMEA Structured Fin
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
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JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's lowers the highest achievable structured finance ratings in Italy, Portugal and Spain following the recent sovereign rating actions
No Related Data.

 

© 2014 Moody's Corporation, Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moody's Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.

 


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