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Rating Action:

Moody's places $1.5B on review for downgrade and $1.4B on review for upgrade of Scratch and Dent RMBS issued between 1996 and 2007.

19 Apr 2012

New York, April 19, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service has placed 126 tranches on review for downgrade and 74 tranches on review for upgrade from 121 RMBS transactions, backed by scratch and dent loans. Scratch and Dent pools include mortgages that may have been originated outside an originator's program guidelines in some way, mortgages with document defects at origination that were subsequently cured or include mortgages where borrowers may have missed payments in the past.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The actions are a result of the recent performance review of scratch and dent pools and reflect Moody's updated loss expectations on these pools.

The methodologies used in these ratings were "Moody's Approach to Rating US Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities" published in December 2008, and "US RMBS Surveillance Methodology for

Scratch and Dent" published in May 2011. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

To determine which tranches to place on review, Moody's compared the model implied rating to the current rating. The model implied rating is based on updated projected loss and available credit enhancement from subordination and excess spread. Excess spread benefit is based on recent observed spread and is subject to further rating-specific stresses. Over the coming months, additional transaction specific analysis will be concluded.

The above mentioned approach "US RMBS Surveillance Methodology for Scratch and Dent " is adjusted slightly when estimating losses on pools left with a small number of loans to account for the volatile nature of small pools. Even if a few loans in a small pool become delinquent, there could be a large increase in the overall pool delinquency level due to the concentration risk. To project losses on scratch and dent pools with fewer than 100 loans, Moody's first estimates a "baseline" average rate of new delinquencies of 11%. The baseline rate is generally higher than the average rate of new delinquencies for larger pools.

Once the baseline rate is set, further adjustments are made based on 1) the number of loans remaining in the pool and 2) the level of current delinquencies in the pool. The fewer the number of loans remaining in the pool, the higher the volatility in performance. Once the loan count in a pool falls below 75, the rate of delinquency is increased by 1% for every loan less than 75. For example, for a pool with 74 loans from the 2004 vintage, the adjusted rate of new delinquency would be 11.11%. In addition, if the current delinquency level in a small pool is low, future delinquencies are expected to reflect this trend. To account for that, the rate calculated above is multiplied by a factor ranging from 0.85 to 2.25 for current delinquencies ranging from less than 10% to greater than 50% respectively. Delinquencies for subsequent years and ultimate expected losses are projected using the approach described in the methodology publication.

Certain securities are insured by financial guarantors. For securities insured by a financial guarantor, the rating on the securities is the higher of (i) the guarantor's financial strength rating and (ii) the current underlying rating (i.e., absent consideration of the guaranty) on the security. The principal methodology used in determining the underlying rating is the same methodology for rating securities that do not have a financial guaranty and is as described earlier.

The primary source of assumption uncertainty is the current macroeconomic environment, in which unemployment levels remain high, and weakness persists in the housing market. Moody's Macroeconomic Board and Moody's Analytics (MA) still expect a below-trend growth for the US economy for 2012, with the unemployment rate remaining high between 8% to 9% and home prices dropping another 1% from the levels seen in 4Q 2011.

A list of the review actions associated with this announcement may be found at:

Excel: http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF282744

For more information please see www.moodys.com.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entities, obligations or credits satisfactory for the purposes of issuing these ratings.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning the ratings is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history. The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

In addition to the information provided below please find on the ratings tab of the issuer page at www.moodys.com, for each of the ratings covered, Moody's disclosures on the lead rating analyst and the Moody's legal entity that has issued each of the ratings.

Ola Hannoun-Costa
Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Debashish Chatterjee
Associate Managing Director
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Moody's places $1.5B on review for downgrade and $1.4B on review for upgrade of Scratch and Dent RMBS issued between 1996 and 2007.
No Related Data.
© 2019 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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