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Rating Action:

Moody's places EDF's A1/P-1 ratings on review for downgrade

13 Feb 2016

London, 13 February 2016 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) has today placed on review for downgrade the A1 senior unsecured ratings of Électricité de France (EDF) and the Baa1 ratings of its perpetual junior subordinated notes. Concurrently, Moody's has placed on review for downgrade the group's Prime-1 short-term ratings. Moody's has also placed on review for downgrade the Baa1 issuer rating of EDF's subsidiary EDF Trading Limited (EDFT) and the Baa3 issuer and senior unsecured ratings of EDF's subsidiary Edison S.p.A. (Edison), which incorporate support from their ultimate parent.

A full list of affected ratings is provided towards the end of this press release.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rating review reflects EDF's exposure to a weakening power price environment. Power prices in France have declined have declined by 23% in the past three months, reflecting a fall in commodity prices, notably coal and carbon. Current one-year forward baseload prices of around EUR27/MWh are below Moody's estimates published in June 2015 of a EUR36-41/MWh range over 2015-20.

A prolonged period of low power prices will further affect EDF given its exposure to market-exposed generation activities. Moody's estimates that approximately 50% of EDF's EBITDA is derived from market-exposed generation following the end of certain regulated tariffs in France. In addition, as EDF's generation fleet is predominantly fixed cost in nature, it is particularly exposed to movements in wholesale power prices. Nuclear and hydro made up around 85% of total electricity production of 319 TWh in the first six months of 2015.

The review of EDF's ratings reflects that, as hedges roll off, the pressure on cash flows exerted by lower power prices will result in weaker credit metrics in the next two to three years, in the absence of material offsetting measures. Moody's notes that EDF is already weakly positioned against the agency's guidelines for the current ratings, which include funds from operations (FFO)/net debt in the high teens to low twenties in percentage terms and retained cash flow (RCF)/net debt in the mid to upper teens in percentage terms. Moody's adds that these pressures may further exacerbate the risks associated with the Hinkley Point C (HPC) project -- should it go ahead -- and the planned acquisition of AREVA NP.

The review of EDFT's and Edison's ratings follows that of their ultimate parent EDF given their significant integration into and close relationship with EDF.

The review will focus on the impact of lower power prices on EDF's credit metrics. In its assessment, Moody's will consider any measures that EDF management may take to support the group's financial profile. Moody's will also take account of any potential support provided by the French government (Aa2 stable), EDF's main shareholder with a 84.5% ownership. Moody's will endeavour to conclude the rating review within 90 days.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP/DOWN

The ratings could be confirmed if the adverse effect of lower power prices is mitigated so that EDF maintains a financial profile in line with Moody's guidance as discussed above.

The ratings could be downgraded if (1) EDF proves unable to offset the impact of lower power prices using mitigating measures to create adequate financial headroom; or (2) the HPC project and/or the acquisition of AREVA NP were to go ahead without their risks being adequately mitigated.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodologies used in rating Electricite de France were Unregulated Utilities and Unregulated Power Companies published in October 2014, and Government-Related Issuers published in October 2014.

The principal methodology used in rating Edison S.p.A. was Unregulated Utilities and Unregulated Power Companies published in October 2014.

The principal methodology used in rating EDF Trading Limited was Trading Companies published in March 2015.

Please see the Ratings Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS

On Review for Downgrade:

..Issuer: Electricite de France

.... LT Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently A1

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently A1

....Junior Subordinated Regular Bond/Debenture, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Baa1

....Senior Unsecured MTN, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently (P)A1

....BACKED Senior Unsecured MTN, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently (P)A1

....BACKED Senior Unsec. Shelf, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently (P)A1

....Commercial Paper, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently P-1

....BACKED Commercial Paper, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently P-1

..Issuer: Edison S.p.A.

.... LT Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Baa3

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Baa3

....Senior Unsecured MTN, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently (P)Baa3

..Issuer: EDF Trading Limited

.... LT Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Baa1

Outlook Actions:

..Issuer: Electricite de France

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

..Issuer: EDF Trading Limited

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

..Issuer: Edison S.p.A.

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Headquartered in Paris, France, Électricité de France is one of Europe's largest integrated utilities, with reported revenues of EUR72.9 billion in 2014. It is 84.5% owned by the French government.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Paul Marty
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Infrastructure Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Monica Merli
MD - Infrastructure Finance
Infrastructure Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's places EDF's A1/P-1 ratings on review for downgrade
No Related Data.
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