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Rating Action:

Moody's places eighteen Russian Sub-Sovereign ratings on review for downgrade

01 Mar 2022

Actions follow placement on review for downgrade of Russia's Baa3 sovereign rating

London, 01 March 2022 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today placed on review for downgrade the ratings of sixteen Russian regions and cities and two government-related issuers.

This rating action follows the potential weakening of Russia's credit profile as captured by the placement on review for downgrade of the sovereign government bond rating (Baa3) on 25 February 2022, which was triggered by Russia's further military operation in Ukraine. For additional information, please refer to the related announcement: https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-places-Russias-Baa3-ratings-and-Ukraines-B3-ratings-on--PR_461633.

The decision to place Sub-sovereign ratings on review for downgrade reflects the potential deterioration of their credit profiles due to economic, financial and institutional linkages with the federal government. Specifically, Moody's has placed on review for downgrade the ratings of the cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg, SUE Vodokanal of St. Petersburg, OJSC "Western High-Speed Diameter", Moscow Oblast, Republic of Bashkortostan, Republic of Tatarstan, Autonomous-Okrug (region) of Khanty-Mansiysk, Samara Oblast, Chuvashia Republic, Krasnoyarsk Krai, Krasnodar Krai, Komi Republic, Oblast of Omsk, Oblast of Nizhniy Novgorod, City of Krasnodar, City of Omsk, City of Volgograd.

The full list of affected issuers and credit ratings can be found at the end of this press release.

The review will focus on the impact of growing systemic risks on Russian sub-sovereigns. During the review period Moody's will evaluate the scale of the economic impact of the conflict and subsequent sanctions, significant and lasting negative changes in sub-sovereigns' cost of funding and market access, and the size and timeliness of potential financial support from the central government.

RATINGS RATIONALE / FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

RATIONALE FOR INITIATING THE REVIEW FOR DOWNGRADE ON 16 REGIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS' (RLGs') RATINGS

The decision to place these ratings on review for downgrade reflects the potential deterioration of their credit profiles due to the economic, financial and institutional linkages with the federal government.

Moody's will assess to which extent the conflict and related sanctions will negatively impact RLGs through lower corporate and personal income taxes and heightened spending pressure. Many regions' economic activity is concentrated in particular sectors, such as oil and gas, metal production, financial activities or petrochemicals, that could be directly affected by sanctions. Restrictions to import and export activities could also undermine key local taxpayers' ability to generate revenue and pay taxes, directly affecting RLGs' tax collection. In addition, the recently announced and potentially further sanctions on high-technology imports would impair medium-to long-term growth and diversification potential of local economies of many regions.

Furthermore, turbulence on local financial markets would lead to higher borrowing costs for the RLGs and undermine access to market funding. At end-2021, local market funding accounted for 44% of total direct debt of all Russian regions, with the remaining 56% representing budget loans from the central government.

Finally, a weaker credit quality for the sovereign would potentially diminish its ability to provide on-going support to the local public sector via transfers (about 25% of total RLG revenues in 2021) and cheap funding through budget loans.

-- RATIONALE FOR INITIATING THE REVIEW FOR DOWNGRADE ON 2 GOVERNMENT RELATED ISSUERS' (GRIs') RATINGS

The placement on review down of the Ba1 issuer ratings of SUE Vodokanal of St. Petersburg, and Ba2 senior unsecured rating of OJSC Western High-Speed Diameter reflects their status as government-related issuers that are fully owned by the St. Petersburg government.

The review for downgrade of OJSC Western High-Speed Diameter's Ba2 bond rating reflects its link with the City of St. Petersburg and the guarantee that the Russian government provides on its bond principal payments. This guarantee covers overall principal payments and principal acceleration.

--FOCUS OF THE REVIEW FOR DOWNGRADE FOR ALL 16 RLGs AND 2 GRIs

The review will focus on the impact of growing systemic risks on Russian sub-sovereigns, responding promptly to a rapidly evolving situation. Moody's will evaluate the scale of the economic impact of the conflict and subsequent sanctions, significant and lasting negative changes in sub-sovereigns' cost of funding and market access, and the size and timeliness of potential financial support from the central government. In this context, Moody's will also take into account the degree to which Russian sub-sovereigns are able to mitigate economic and financial disruption, via budget flexibility and liquidity buffers.

The conclusion of the review will likely follow the conclusion of the review of Russia's sovereign rating.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN

Given the review for downgrade, an upgrade of the sub-sovereign ratings is unlikely.

Conversely, a downgrade of the sovereign's rating and/or indications of material negative economic or financial impacts on individual sub-sovereign's credit profiles would likely make a downward pressure on their ratings.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS

ESG Credit Impact Score for the majority of Russian RLGs is moderately negative (CIS-3), except for the republic of Komi which has a highly negative Credit Impact Score (CIS-4). The CIS-3 reflects moderately negative to highly negative exposure to environmental score (E-3, E-4), low to neutral to highly negative exposure to social risk score (S-2, S-3, S4) and moderately negative exposure to governance score (G-3); combined with a fiscal resilience of RLGs budgets, accumulated liquidity buffers and central government support to address environmental and governance risks.

Many Russian RLGs are exposed to environmental risk through carbon transition risk given their reliance on hydrocarbon and petrochemical sectors. In addition, Russian RLGs are also exposed to water management risks, physical climate risk and waste and pollution risk. A growing number of heatwaves and more volatile winter conditions are increasing pressure on the infrastructure and/or agriculture sectors of many Russian RLGs.

Exposure to social risks ranges from S-2 for large economic centers which benefit from high labour income, reasonable access to education and health facilities to S-4 for regions with disperse and/or declining population or/and low incomes. Russian RLGs in their majority face moderate social risks from relatively low income levels, unfavourable demographic trends, which limit potential for growth and diversification of the local economies.

The influence of governance on Russian RLGs is moderately negative (G-3 issuer profile), in line with assessment of governance in Russia, reflecting risks that are mainly related to weaknesses in the rule of law, property rights and control of corruption, as indicated in relatively low scores on international surveys; mitigated by relatively robust policy effectiveness.

The sovereign action required the publication of this credit rating action on a date that deviates from the previously scheduled release date in the sovereign release calendar, published on www.moodys.com.

The specific economic indicators, as required by UK regulation, are not available for these entities. The following national economic indicators are relevant to the sovereign rating, which was used as an input to this credit rating action.

Sovereign Issuer: Russia, Government of

GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 28,053 (2020 Actual) (also known as Per Capita Income)

Real GDP growth (% change): -2.7% (2020 Actual) (also known as GDP Growth)

Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 4.9% (2020 Actual)

Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -4% (2020 Actual) (also known as Fiscal Balance)

Current Account Balance/GDP: 2.4% (2020 Actual) (also known as External Balance)

External debt/GDP: 31.5% (2020 Actual)

Economic resiliency: ba1

Default history: At least one default event (on bonds and/or loans) has been recorded since 1983.

SUMMARY OF MINUTES FROM RATING COMMITTEE

On 24 February 2022, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the Bashkortostan, Republic of; Chuvashia, Republic of; Khanty-Mansiysk AO; Komi, Republic of; Krasnodar, City of; Krasnodar, Krai of; Krasnoyarsk, Krai of; Moscow, City of; Moscow, Oblast of; Nizhniy Novgorod, Oblast; OJSC Western High-Speed Diameter; Omsk, City of; Omsk, Oblast of; SUE Vodokanal of St. Petersburg; Samara, Oblast of; St. Petersburg, City of; Tatarstan, Republic of; Volgograd, City of. The main points raised during the discussion were: the systemic risk in which the issuers operate has materially increased.

The principal methodology used in rating Moscow, City of, Nizhniy Novgorod, Oblast, St. Petersburg, City of, Moscow, Oblast of, Komi, Republic of, Krasnoyarsk, Krai of, Tatarstan, Republic of, Samara, Oblast of, Bashkortostan, Republic of, Krasnodar, Krai of, Khanty-Mansiysk AO, Chuvashia, Republic of, Omsk, Oblast of, Omsk, City of, Volgograd, City of and Krasnodar, City of was Regional and Local Governments published in January 2018 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1091595. The principal methodology used in rating SUE Vodokanal of St. Petersburg and OJSC Western High-Speed Diameter was Government-Related Issuers Methodology published in February 2020 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1186207. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this credit rating action, if applicable.

-- RATINGS AFFECTED

-- ON REVIEW FOR DOWNGRADE:

..Issuer: Bashkortostan, Republic of

.... LT Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Ba1

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently ba1

..Issuer: Chuvashia, Republic of

.... LT Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Ba2

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently ba2

..Issuer: Khanty-Mansiysk AO

.... LT Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Ba1

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently ba1

..Issuer: Komi, Republic of

.... LT Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Ba3

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently ba3

..Issuer: Krasnodar, City of

.... LT Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Ba3

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently b1

..Issuer: Krasnodar, Krai of

.... LT Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Ba2

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently ba2

..Issuer: Krasnoyarsk, Krai of

.... LT Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Ba2

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently ba2

..Issuer: Moscow, City of

.... LT Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Baa3

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently baa3

..Issuer: Moscow, Oblast of

.... LT Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Ba1

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently ba1

..Issuer: Nizhniy Novgorod, Oblast

.... LT Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Ba2

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently ba2

..Issuer: OJSC Western High-Speed Diameter

.... Backed Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Ba2

..Issuer: Omsk, City of

.... LT Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently B1

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently b2

..Issuer: Omsk, Oblast of

.... LT Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Ba3

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently b1

..Issuer: Samara, Oblast of

.... LT Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Ba1

.... Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Ba1

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently ba1

..Issuer: St. Petersburg, City of

.... LT Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Baa3

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently baa3

..Issuer: SUE Vodokanal of St. Petersburg

.... LT Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Ba1

..Issuer: Tatarstan, Republic of

.... LT Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Ba1

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently ba1

..Issuer: Volgograd, City of

.... LT Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently B1

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently b2

Outlook Actions:

..Issuer: Bashkortostan, Republic of

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

..Issuer: Chuvashia, Republic of

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

..Issuer: Khanty-Mansiysk AO

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

..Issuer: Komi, Republic of

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

..Issuer: Krasnodar, City of

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

..Issuer: Krasnodar, Krai of

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

..Issuer: Krasnoyarsk, Krai of

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

..Issuer: Moscow, City of

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

..Issuer: Moscow, Oblast of

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

..Issuer: Nizhniy Novgorod, Oblast

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

..Issuer: OJSC Western High-Speed Diameter

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

..Issuer: Omsk, City of

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

..Issuer: Omsk, Oblast of

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

..Issuer: Samara, Oblast of

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

..Issuer: St. Petersburg, City of

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

..Issuer: SUE Vodokanal of St. Petersburg

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

..Issuer: Tatarstan, Republic of

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

..Issuer: Volgograd, City of

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website www.moodys.com.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1288235.

The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.

The person who approved these credit ratings is Mauro Crisafulli.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

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