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Rating Action:

Moody's places on review for downgrade ratings on 12 Irish RMBS transactions

23 Jul 2010

Approximately EUR 30 billion of debt securities affected

London, 23 July 2010 -- Moody's Investors Service today placed on review for possible downgrade 28 classes of notes in 12 Irish RMBS transactions:

- All outstanding classes of notes issued by Celtic Residential Irish Mortgage Securitisation No 9 and No 10 PLC ("Celtic 9", "Celtic 10"), the class A3, B and C issued by Celtic Residential Irish Mortgage Securitisation No 11 PLC ("Celtic 11"), the class A3 and B by Celtic Residential Irish Mortgage Securitisation No 12 Limited ( "Celtic 12"), and the class A3, B and C issued by Celtic Residential Irish Mortgage Securitisation No 13 Limited ("Celtic 13")

- All classes of notes issued by Emerald Mortgages No 4 plc ("Emerald 4")

- All classes of notes issued by Fastnet Securities 4 Ltd ("Fastnet 4") and Fastnet Securities 5 Ltd ("Fastnet 5")

- The class A issued by Phoenix Funding 2 Limited ("Phoenix 2") and all classes of notes issued by Phoenix Funding 3 Limited ("Phoenix 3")

- All classes of notes issued by Wolfhound Funding 2008-1 Limited ("Wolfhound 2008-1") and Wolfhound Funding 2 Limited ("Wolfhound 2")

A complete list of all 28 affected tranches placed on review for downgrade can be found at the end of this press release. No action was taken on the class B notes in Phoenix 2 and class C notes in Celtic 12 as they are already on review for possible downgrade since the latest rating action of July 2009.

Today's rating action was prompted by the worse-than-expected performance of the collateral backing the notes, as shown by increase in arrears reported in the servicer reports. The actions also reflect Moody's expectations of prolonged pool performance deterioration due to the stressed economic environment in Ireland, including anticipated increase in unemployment rates projected for 2010 as well as continued deterioration of the Irish housing market.

DETERIORATING CREDIT TRENDS IN IRISH RMBS POOLS

Moody's reviewed the performance of all 21 outstanding Irish RMBS it rates. As part of its analysis, Moody's has taken into account credit trends of the mortgage pools to date, the deviation from Moody's expectations and the levels of credit enhancement and structural features available to absorb the losses on the respective portfolios. Moody's indentified 12 Irish RMBS, from the 2005 to 2008 vintages, currently performing outside of its expectations. All affected Irish RMBS show rapidly rising delinquencies. The share of loans more than 90 days in arrears currently exceed cumulative defaults assumptions in 6 out of the 12 Irish RMBS placed on review for possible downgrade.

Moody's anticipates that the weakening of the economic conditions will continue to cause high arrears in the affected Irish RMBS. The anticipated tightening of fiscal policy, on the back of government austerity, is likely to weigh on the recovery in the Irish labour market and also constraints household finances. We therefore do not expect any stabilisation in arrears before 2011.

Despite the rapid deterioration in total delinquencies, the 12 affected transactions have experienced limited repossession to-date. The negligible level of repossessions in the Irish mortgage market is associated to the lengthy foreclosure process in Ireland as well as to the moratorium on legal proceedings introduced by the Irish government in February 2009. Moody's is concerned about the future performance of the transactions given uncertainties in terms of amount and timing of future recoveries. Irish house prices have fallen by more than 35% below the peak reached in late 2006, with the total peak-to-trough decline anticipated to be 45%. As result, indexed loan-to-values (LTVs) on the pools have significantly increased, and in all pools a portion of the loans are now in negative equity; in 9 of 12 transaction, more than a third of the securitised pool is currently in negative equity.

PORTFOLIOS PERFORMANCE

Celtic Series:

Celtic 9, 10 and 12 are showing over 8% of outstanding pool balance currently more than 3 months in arrears. Delinquencies have been rising rapidly in the Celtic deals over the past 6 months. The share of loan more than 90 days in arrears ranged between 4 and 6% in Celtic 9, 10 and 12 as at December 2009. The share of loans more than 360 days in arrears rose to currently 2.68%, 2.43% and 2.40% of current pool balance of Celtic 9, 10 and 12 respectively, up from 1.7%, 1.46% and 1.60% as December 2009. Delinquencies in Celtic 11 and 13 remain more moderate, with loans more than 90 days arrears representing 3.13% and 2.58% of current pool balance respectively as at the last reporting date. However, both deals do not show signs of stabilisation of arrears trend. Celtic 10, 11, 12 and 13 exhibit a substantial share of loans in negative equity, representing between 32% and 46% of current pool balance.

Emerald 4:

The loans more than 3 months arrears reached 3.98% of current pool balance as at the last reporting date in July 2010, up from 2.97% in December 2009. The share of loans more than 360 days in arrears currently represent 1.38% of current pool balance. 31.3% of the mortgage pool in emerald 4 is currently in negative equity.

Fastnet Series:

Fastnet 4 and Fastnet 5 were both issued in 2008 and show rapidly rising delinquencies. Reported loans in arrears for more than three months reached 3.32 % and 4.58% of current pool balance in Fastnet 4 and Fastnet 5 in June 2010 respectively, up from 1.59% and 1.74% of pool balance as at December 2009. The share of loan more than 360 days in arrears is rising rapidly, currently representing 0.61% and 0.86% of current pool balance in Fastnet 4 and 5 respectively. Moody's observes that the share of loans in negative equity remain low compared to market, standing between 7.5% and 20% of current pool balance in both deals.

Phoenix series:

As of the last reporting date in June 2010, loans more than 3 months in arrears increased to 5.23% and 4.54% in Phoenix 2 and 3 respectively, up from 3.91% and 3.4% in December 2009. The share of loans more than 360 days in arrears currently represent 1.31% and 1.04% of current pool balance in both deals respectively. Both transactions exhibit high indexed LTV of 98.7% and 86.1% respectively. The share of loans in negative equity is currently 55% and 37% of pool balance in Phoenix 2 and 3 respectively.

Wolfhound Series:

The wolfhound 2008-1 and 2 were issued in November 2008 and December 2009 respectively. The share of loans in negative equity is large in both deals, respectively 37% and 42% of pool balance. Delinquencies are rising rapidly. As of the last reporting date in May 2010, loans more than 3 months in arrears stood at 5.04% and 1.07% of current pool balance in Wolfhound 2008-1 and Wolfhound 2 respectively, up from 4.27% and 0.25% three months earlier.

REVISION OF LIFETIME LOSSES AND MILAN Aaa CE

Moody's will revise its lifetime loss expectation for all 12 transactions to reflect the collateral performance to date as well as its negative outlook for the Irish housing market. Moody's will also request updated loan-by-loan information to revise its MILAN Aaa credit enhancement. The loss expectation with the MILAN Aaa credit enhancement are key parameters used by Moody's to calibrate its loss distribution curve, which is one of the core inputs in the cash-flow model it uses to rate RMBS transactions.

The rating reviews will be concluded following a detailed review and remodeling with updated performance data of each transaction. In the meantime, Moody's will continue to closely monitor the performance of the portfolios in the next quarterly periods

Moody's ratings address the expected loss posed to investors by the legal final maturity of the notes. Moody's ratings address only the credit risks associated with the transactions. Other non-credit risks have not been addressed, but may have a significant effect on yield to investors.

The principal methodologies used in monitoring this transaction is "Moody's MILAN Methodology for Rating Irish RMBS" published in April 2009, and "Revising Default/Loss Assumptions Over the Life of an ABS/RMBS Transaction" published in December 2008 and available on www.moodys.com in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab. Please also refer to the "Irish RMBS Q2 2009 Indices", which is available on www.moodys.com in the Industry / Sector Research sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory on Moody's web site. In addition, Moody's publishes a weekly summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies, available to all registered users of our web site, at www.moodys.com/SFQuickCheck.

LIST OF RATINGS ACTIONS:

Celtic Residential Irish Mortgage Securitisation No.9 PLC

EUR1067.5M A2 Certificate, Aaa Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Nov 25, 2005 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa

EUR70M B Certificate, A2 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Nov 25, 2005 Definitive Rating Assigned A2

Celtic Residential Irish Mortgage Securitisation NO. 10 PLC

EUR1253M A2 Certificate, Aaa Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Aug 11, 2006 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa

EUR89.5M B Certificate, A2 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Aug 11, 2006 Definitive Rating Assigned A2

Celtic Residential Irish Mortgage Securitisation NO. 11 PLC

EUR1388.8M A3a Certificate, Aaa Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Dec 14, 2006 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa

GBP586M A3c Certificate, Aaa Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Dec 14, 2006 Assigned Aaa

EUR77M Ba Certificate, Aa2 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Dec 14, 2006 Definitive Rating Assigned Aa2

EUR147.4M Ca Certificate, Baa2 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Dec 14, 2006 Definitive Rating Assigned Baa2

GBP17.5M Cc Certificate, Baa2 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Dec 14, 2006 Assigned Baa2

Celtic Residential Irish Mortgage Securitisation No.12 Ltd.

EUR1010 A3 Notes, Aaa Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 29, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa

EUR39M B Notes, Aa3 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 29, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aa3

Celtic Residential Irish Mortgage Securitisation No. 13 Ltd

EUR938.2M A3 Certificate, Aaa Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Dec 18, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa

EUR101.8M B Certificate, Aa3 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Dec 18, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aa3

EUR47.9M C Certificate, Baa2 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Dec 18, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Baa2

Emerald Mortgages No. 4 plc

EUR1428M A Notes, Aaa Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jul 12, 2006 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa

EUR34.5M B Notes, Aa3 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jul 12, 2006 Definitive Rating Assigned Aa3

EUR37.5M C Notes, Baa2 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jul 12, 2006 Definitive Rating Assigned Baa2

Fastnet Securities 5 Ltd

EUR510M A1 Certificate, Aaa Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Oct 20, 2008 Assigned Aaa

EUR510M A2 Certificate, Aaa Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Oct 20, 2008 Assigned Aaa

EUR527M A3 Certificate, Aaa Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Oct 20, 2008 Assigned Aaa

Fastnet Securities 4 Ltd

EUR2080M A1 Certificate, Aaa Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 11, 2008 Assigned Aaa

EUR2080M A2 Certificate, Aaa Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 11, 2008 Assigned Aaa

EUR2080M A3 Certificate, Aaa Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 11, 2008 Assigned Aaa

Phoenix Funding 2 Limited

EUR7125M A Notes, Aaa Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2008 Assigned Aaa

Phoenix funding 3 Limited

EUR3040M A Notes, Aaa Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Nov 11, 2008 Assigned Aaa

EUR160M B Notes, A1 Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Nov 11, 2008 Assigned A1

Wolfhound Funding 2 Limited

EUR2821M A Notes, Aaa Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Dec 2, 2009 Assigned Aaa

Wolfhound Funding 2008-1 Limited

EUR4085M A Notes, Aaa Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Nov 20, 2008 Assigned Aaa

London
Barbara Rismondo
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

London
Carole Bernard
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's places on review for downgrade ratings on 12 Irish RMBS transactions
No Related Data.
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