London, 18 January 2022 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") today placed
the Baa2 long-term local and foreign-currency issuer ratings
of Development Bank of Kazakhstan (DBK) on review for possible downgrade.
Concurrently, the bank's Baa2 senior unsecured debt rating,
(P)Baa2 senior unsecured MTN and (P)Baa3 subordinate MTN program ratings
were also placed on review for possible downgrade. The issuer outlook
was changed to ratings under review from stable.
A full list of affected ratings can be found at the end of this press
release.
RATINGS RATIONALE / FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE
OF THE RATINGS
Today's rating action reflects the uncertainty regarding external
support probability for DBK channeled by the Government of Kazakhstan
(Baa2 stable) through Baiterek National Management Holding, JSC
(Baiterek, Baa2 stable) following the recent announcement made by
the President of Kazakhstan amid the social unrest in the country.
During the meeting of the Parliament of the Republic of Kazakhstan on
11 January 2022, the President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev criticized
the effectiveness of government support measures and, in particular,
business activity of DBK [1]. This public announcement highlights
revealed governance weakness of DBK, which poses uncertainty to
the government support probability.
DBK's current Baa2 issuer ratings reflect its ba3 standalone assessment
and four-notch uplift based on very high probability of support
from and very high dependence on DBK's parent, Baiterek.
This assessment incorporates DBK's 100% ownership by Baiterek,
the bank's public policy role, special legal status, and the
track record of loans and capital injections provided by the Kazakh government
through Baiterek. Further political actions and targeted reforming
of DBK may lead to reassessment of current probability of external support.
In addition, recent developments may put pressure on the bank's
standalone assessment, including its access to capital markets and
refinancing capacity given its high share of external wholesale funding.
Further, political instability can deter foreign investment and
dampen economic growth, which can lead to worsening assets performance,
while weakened governance poses additional risks to asset quality.
THE FOCUS OF THE REVIEW
The review for downgrade on DBK's ratings will focus on the reassessment
on government support channeled through Baiterek. Moody's
will consider the potential governance risks related to the ongoing rebalancing
of political power and its direct and indirect impact on the bank,
as well as development of the bank's standalone assessment.
DBK's ratings may be downgraded in case of a downward revision of
external support probability for DBK from the government amid changes
in domestic political priorities. In addition, significant
worsening of the bank's standalone assessment amid challenging operating
environment or governance risks can result in a downgrade of the bank's
ratings, unless offset by external support.
Bank's ratings may be confirmed if there is certainty in the current
level of external support probability channeled by the government through
Baiterek, operating environment stabilizes and there is no substantial
worsening of the bank's financial position.
LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS
..Issuer: Development Bank of Kazakhstan
On Review for Downgrade:
....Long-term Issuer Ratings,
Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Baa2
....Subordinate Medium-Term Note Program,
Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently (P)Baa3
....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note
Program, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently (P)Baa2
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture,
Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Baa2
Outlook Action:
....Outlook, Changed To Ratings Under
Review From Stable
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Finance Companies
Methodology published in November 2019 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1187099.
Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com
for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity
analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity
to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and
Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.
For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of
debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures
in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the
same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant
to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing
ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings
issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain
regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the
support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action
for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's
credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement
provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional
rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may
be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each
case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior
to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have
affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings
tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action,
and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action,
the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated
agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.
These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for
Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its
website www.moodys.com.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and
governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1288235.
At least one ESG consideration was material to the credit rating actions(s)
announced and desribed above.
The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was
issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by
Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main
60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph
3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies.
Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office
that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.
REFERENCES/CITATIONS
[1] Form 8-K (SEC) 11-Jan-2022 https://www.kazpravda.kz/en/news/president/we-know-their-names---tokayev-said-that-dbk-turned-into-a-personal-bank-for-elite
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Maria Malyukova
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Limited, Russian Branch
7th floor, Four Winds Plaza
21 1st Tverskaya-Yamskaya St.
Moscow 125047
Russia
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Yaroslav Sovgyra, CFA
Associate Managing Director
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
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