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Global Credit Research - 07 Dec 2010
Paris, December 07, 2010 -- Moody's Investors Service has today placed the A3 (sf) long-term
rating of the Class A-1 Emergence Offset Notes (senior tranche),
as well as the Baa3 (sf) long-term rating of the Class A-2
Notes (junior tranche) under review for possible downgrade. Emergence
Offset Notes are the life insurance-linked notes issued by Avondale
Securities SA, a special purpose Luxembourg societe anonyme sponsored
by Bank of Ireland. The repayment of the Notes references future
profits expected to emerge from a book of life insurance and pension unit-linked
policies originated by New Ireland Assurance Company plc (trading as Bank
of Ireland Life), a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of Ireland.
The rating action follows the recent market confidence issues faced by
several Irish banks, including Bank of Ireland, as well as
Moody's review for possible downgrade of Bank of Ireland's
ratings and the new austerity measures decided by the Irish government,
all of which may have direct and indirect negative impact on future profits
to emerge from the securitised book of business. A deterioration
of the Value-In-Force (VIF) could have a negative impact
on the expected loss posed to the noteholders, especially for the
most junior tranche, bearing in mind its relative small size (EUR20
Moody's said that, despite the recent provision of additional
external support for the main Irish banks, market confidence issues
recently faced by Bank of Ireland and some of its competitors may create
a reputational risk which could potentially affect the market position
and profitability of Bank of Ireland Life. Since a high proportion
of life products are sold through the banking channel, any event
affecting the bank may have a direct effect on the ability of the insurance
operation to sustain its current level of activity. This could
also trigger a spike in lapses in the existing book of business,
including the securitised book, which would have negative implications
on the surplus to emerge from this book, and therefore negative
implications for the Notes' ratings.
Moody's added that the austerity measures decided by the Irish government
may also modify the behaviour of life policyholders. Moody's
expects that these measures would result in a lower savings power and
lower purchasing power for Irish households, which could provoke
a long term increase in lapse rates and in paid-up policy rates
at Bank of Ireland Life. This in turn would have a negative impact
on the VIF of the securitised book.
Moody's review will focus on the expected loss of each tranche of the
Notes in the light of the most recent data available, reviewing
especially future developments on lapse rates in the coming months.
Moody's review will also take into consideration the conclusion
of the review for possible downgrade of Bank of Ireland's ratings
and any impact on the financial strength of Bank of Ireland Life,
originator of the securitised book of business as, in addition to
the underlying expected loss on the Notes, the ratings continue
to reflect the financial strength of the various parties to the transaction,
including the sponsor and its life subsidiary.
The following ratings have been placed under review for possible downgrade:
- EUR380,000,000 Class A-1 Floating Rate Emergence
Offset Notes due 2032 -- long-term secured rating
at A3 (sf);
- EUR20,000,000 Class A-2 Floating Rate Emergence
Offset Notes due 2032 -- long-term rating at Baa3
The last rating action on the Emergence Offset Notes was on October 28,
2009, when Moody's confirmed the EUR380 million Class A-1
Notes at A3 (sf) and the EUR20 million Class A-2 Notes at Baa3
The principal methodology used in rating the Emergence Offset Notes is
"Moody's Analysis of Life Insurance Embedded Values and Their Securitisation",
which can be found at www.moodys.com in the Rating Methodologies
sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab. Other
methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process
of rating these issuers can also be found in the Rating Methodologies
sub-directory on Moody's website.
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's France SAS
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
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MD - Financial Institutions
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's France SAS
Moody's places the ratings of the Emergence Offset Notes issued by Avondale Securities SA on review for possible downgrade
96 Boulevard Haussmann
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