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Announcement:

Moody's publishes new report on Chinese regional and local governments — Yunnan

 The document has been translated in other languages

13 Dec 2018

London, 13 December 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service has just published a report on Yunnan, one of only seven of the 31 provinces in China to record a faster annual GDP growth rate in 2017 versus 2016.

Yunnan was also one of 22 Chinese provinces in 2017 to record GDP growth above the national rate of 6.9%.

"In 2017, Yunnan's GDP of RMB1.7 trillion ($244.8 billion) was the 20th highest recorded by a Chinese province, representing around 2.0% of China's national GDP," says Yubin Fu, a Moody's Assistant Vice President and Analyst.

"Yunnan's debt-to-GDP of 40.8% in 2017 ranked the third highest of all Chinese provinces," adds Fu.

Moody's analysis of Yunnan is part of its new research product — in English and Chinese — providing overviews of China's upper-tier regional and local governments (RLGs).

Yunnan's per capita GDP registered RMB34,545 in 2017, 42% lower than the national average.

The province demonstrates a significant degree of economic disparity, with the per capita GDP of its prefecture-level divisions ranging from RMB15,119 to RMB71,906.

Moody's report points out that over the past three years, Yunnan has recorded faster gains in general budgetary expenditure than in revenue, largely driven by spending on education, social security and employment and agriculture.

Yunnan, like other western provinces, relies heavily on central transfer payments to fulfill its increasing spending needs. The subsidy that Yunnan received in 2017 was around 1.6 times its general budgetary revenue.

At the end of 2017, Yunnan's outstanding direct debt stood at RMB673.7 billion, below the debt ceiling of RMB752.2 billion set by the central government.

The assets and liabilities of Yunnan's 3,781 local state-owned enterprises (SOEs) were worth RMB3.0 trillion and RMB2.0 trillion, respectively, in 2016. The continued rise in liabilities from local SOEs and the small returns on the SOEs' assets will weigh on Yunnan's debt profile.

Moody's says that Yunnan relies heavily on the agricultural sector, and the province has vast mineral reserves. Its large agriculture sector accounted for 14.0% of GDP in 2017, much higher than the national average of 7.9%. Yunnan's services and industry sectors accounted for 47.4% and 38.6%, respectively, of the province's GDP last year.

Moody's will publish reports on all of the country's 31 upper tier RLGs. Each report will be updated annually. Apart from the just released report on Yunnan, Moody's has also published reports on Hubei and Anhui, Hunan and Sichuan provinces, Guangdong Province, Shanghai Municipality, Tianjin Municipality, Jiangsu Province, Beijing Municipality, Shandong Province, the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and the Municipality of Chongqing.

Subscribers can access the report, "Province of Yunnan (China): 2018 Update" at:

http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1152704

The report on Yunnan may also be found through Moody's topic page "China's trade-off: Deleveraging and stability", available at http://www.moodys.com/chinarebalancing. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues in China as the country's macroeconomic story continues to unfold.

Recent Moody's publications relating to China's trade-off include:

• China's economy and sovereign: How resilient to mounting challenges?

• Financial Institutions : China will strengthen supervision of systemically important financial institutions, a credit positive

• Quarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor

• Structured finance — China: 2019 Outlook — Slowing economy a risk, but performance will hold up in most sectors

• Financial Institutions — China will strengthen supervision of systemically important financial institutions, a credit positive

• Quarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor

• Regional and Local Governments — China: Q3 2018 Debt and Finances Update

• Province of Hubei (China): 2018 Update

• Province of Anhui (China): 2018 Update

• Government of China — A1 Stable: Update following adjustment in geopolitical risk assessment

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: New York +1-212-553-0376, London +44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, S? Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

David Rubinoff
MD - Sub-Sovereigns
Sub-Sovereign Group
Moody's Investors Service EMEA Limited France Branch
96 Boulevard Haussmann
Paris 75008
France
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

Yubin Fu
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Sub-Sovereign Group
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

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