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28 Nov 2018
London, 28 November 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service has just published reports on China's
eighth and ninth most populous provinces: Anhui — with a population
of 62.5 million at the end of 2017 — and Hubei, with
over 59.0 million inhabitants as of the same date.
In terms of similarities between the two provinces, Moody's
says that both registered declines in year-on-year GDP growth
in 2017 — which was the case for 19 of the 31 provinces in China
— and both recorded slower growth of 11% in fixed asset investments
"For 2017, Hubei's GDP of RMB3.7 trillion was the seventh-highest
among China's provinces, representing around 4.4%
of national output," says Daisy Zhang, a Moody's
Vice President and Senior Credit Officer. "The GDP growth
of 7.8% in 2017 was higher than the national rate of 6.9%
but lower than the 8.1% achieved by the province in 2016."
The service sector accounted for 45.2% of Hubei's GDP,
and the industrial sector, 44.5%.
Hubei's per-capita GDP of RMB61,972 in 2017 was 3.9%
above the national average, and ranked 11th-highest.
Moody's points out that the economic disparity is large in Hubei
when compared with China's other provinces, with the per-capita
GDP of its richest area (RMB123,831) in 2017 totaling more than
five times that of its poorest area (RMB23,892).
"In 2017, Anhui's GDP of RMB2.8 trillion was the 13th-highest
recorded by a Chinese province, representing around 3.3%
of China's national GDP," says Yubin Fu, a Moody's
Assistant Vice President and Analyst. "GDP growth was steady
at 8.5% compared with 8.7% in 2016 and above
the national rate of 6.9%."
The industrial sector is the main driver of Anhui's economic growth,
in particular, the manufacture of electrical machinery and equipment,
automobiles and electronic equipment, and food processing.
Anhui also has vast mineral reserves.
Moody's analysis of Hubei and Anhui are part of its new research
product — in English and Chinese — providing overviews of
China's upper-tier regional and local governments (RLGs).
On general budgetary expenditure, Moody's says that over the
past three years, Hubei has recorded faster gains in general budgetary
expenditure than in revenue, with compound growth rates of 10.9%
and 8.1%, respectively. In 2017, the
province reported total fiscal expenditure of RMB970.1 billion
versus total fiscal revenue of RMB871.5 billion.
Anhui too, has recorded faster gains in general budgetary expenditure
than in revenue in the last three years, largely driven by spending
on education, urban and rural community affairs, and social
welfare and employment. In 2017, the province reported total
fiscal expenditure of RMB1.0 trillion versus revenue of RMB980.6
By the end of 2017, Hubei's outstanding direct debt stood at RMB571.6
billion, approaching the debt ceiling of RMB599.7 billion
set by the central government.
Anhui's outstanding direct debt at the end of 2017 stood at RMB582.3
billion, below its government-set debt ceiling of RMB662.2
Moody's will publish reports on all of the country's 31 upper
tier RLGs. Each report will be updated annually. Apart from
the just released reports on Hubei and Anhui, Moody's has
published reports on Hunan and Sichuan provinces, Guangdong Province,
Shanghai Municipality, Tianjin Municipality, Jiangsu Province,
Beijing Municipality, Shandong Province, the Xinjiang Uygur
Autonomous Region and the Municipality of Chongqing.
Subscribers can access the reports on Hubei and Anhui at:
The reports on Hubei and Anhui may also be found through Moody's topic
page "China's trade-off: Deleveraging and stability",
available at http://www.moodys.com/chinarebalancing.
This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to
key credit issues in China as the country's macroeconomic story continues
Recent Moody's publications relating to China's trade-off include:
• Non-financial corporates — China: 2019 outlook
• Chinese Government-Related Issuers: Credit impact
of declining support for rated GRIs (slides)
• Government of China: Deleveraging to slow as growth weakens;
government to take on more spending responsibilities in the long run
• Regional & Local Governments — China: Opaque disclosure
of 'hidden debt' underscores monitoring challenge
• Banks: China accelerates G-SIBs' total loss-absorbing
capacity buildup, a credit positive
• Bond market — China: Policy easing will alleviate issuer
refinancing pressure but will not eliminate defaults
• Regional & Local Governments — China: Cuts to personal
income tax will weigh on public finances and widen funding gap
• Province of Sichuan (China): 2018 Update
• Province of Hunan (China): 2018 Update
• Inside China: October-2018
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